Only 3 teams have clearer path to 12-0 than Hawkeyes

Let's get this as clear as the clearest trout stream.

This is not the least bit scientific. This is totally arbitrary, and my numbers would be slightly different if I did this again in five minutes. It's purely for fun, for discussion, for a time-waste.

I've looked at the remaining schedules of the 12 unbeaten FBS college football teams and decided who has the best route to a perfect record at the end of their regular-seasons. I assigned what I felt was the likely winning percentage to each of the Dandy Dozen's remaining games, multiplied them, and came up with what I call the HR (Hlog Rankings) Block.

Four teams have just four games left instead of five, which obviously helps their chances. Ohio State and Michigan State are 8-0. LSU and Toledo are 7-0, but had their season-openers cancelled because of inclement weather. They would have won those games (at home against McNeese State and Stony Brook, respectively), anyway.

The following is the HR Block, with the percentage for victory I've assigned for each game. I'll explain my numbers in some places, but not in most. Life is too short.

1. Clemson .301

at N.C. State 72 percent

Florida State 75

at Syracuse 85

Wake Forest 98

at South Carolina 67 … If Clemson is 11-0 going into this game, this should probably be more like 80 percent or more because South Carolina could be playing out the string by then. Maybe it is already.

2. Ohio State .296

Minnesota 95

at Illinois 80

Michigan State 65

at Michigan 60 … This may be low. The Ohio State we saw Saturday night at Rutgers looked a lot like the wrecking machine of last January.

3. Houston .239

Vanderbilt 79

Cincinnati 79 … There are some very competitive teams in the American Athletic Conference besides unbeatens Houston, Memphis and Temple, and Cincinnati is among them.

Memphis 55

at Connecticut 85

Navy 82

4. Iowa .193

Maryland 85 … Like I said, arbitrary.

at Indiana 55 … The Hoosiers have this week off. With quarterback Nate Sudfeld and running back Jordan Howard back in the lineup, Iowa's defense may have its toughest conference test of the year in this game.

Minnesota 85 … The Gophers will be coming off games against Michigan in Minneapolis and Ohio State in Columbus. Good luck with that.

Purdue 95

at Nebraska 51 … This may be low. Nebraska could be 5-6 or even 4-7 entering the game and the atmosphere could feel like an Iowa coronation in Lincoln if the Hawkeyes have TCB'd before this game. But the Huskers still have a chance for a revival, slim as it may feel after their home loss to Northwestern.

5 Memphis .165

Tulane 99

Navy 82

at Houston 45 … Memphis-Houston sounds more like an NBA first-round playoff series than a great college football matchup. But this game could determine which of the two teams goes to a major bowl.

at Temple 57

SMU 89

6. Toledo .151

Northern Illinois 76

at Central Michigan 60

at Bowling Green 43. Bowling Green (6-2) lost to Memphis by just three points.

Western Michigan 80

7. LSU .144

at Alabama 42

Arkansas 80

at Ole Miss 55

Texas A&M 78

8. Michigan State .142

at Nebraska 55 … Nebraska could do the Big Ten a favor by winning this game and making the Ohio State-Michigan game winner-take-all for the East title instead of leaving a bewildering three-way tie a possibility. That assumes Michigan takes care of business beforehand playing the Buckeyes. Why do we assume anything?

Maryland 87

at Ohio State 35

Penn State 85

9. Baylor .113

at Kansas State 65 … I'm assuming Baylor has at least a slight dropoff with freshman quarterback Jarrett Stidham replacing starter Seth Russell, who fractured a bone in his neck against Iowa State Saturday.

Oklahoma 70

at Oklahoma State 60

at TCU 49

Texas 85

10. TCU .111

West Virginia 88

at Oklahoma State 55

Kansas 99.9 … If TCU's entire team ate a bad piece of fish the night before the game while suffering from the 24-hour flu, and then the bus driver got the Horned Frogs to the stadium 45 minutes after kickoff, Kansas has a sliver of a chance.

at Oklahoma 45

Baylor 51

11. Temple .036

Notre Dame 35 … If Temple beats the Irish Saturday night, well, wouldn't that be trippy?

at SMU 58

at USF 46

Memphis 43

Connecticut 90

12. Oklahoma State .024

at Texas Tech 45

TCU 45

at Iowa State 65

Baylor 40

Oklahoma 45