Will independents cause Doomsday scenario? Iowa experts doubtful

SIOUX CITY - A little-remembered portion of the U.S. Constitution says that if no presidential candidate lands the required 270 electoral votes in a November election, then members of the U.S. House of Representatives gather to pick the nation's next chief executive officer.

The 2016 presidential race has been highly intriguing as the Year of the Outsider. Perceived front-runners such as Jeb Bush and Scott Walker have fallen short of expectations, while political outsiders such as uber-businessman and realty TV star Donald Trump and retired surgeon Ben Carson have surged.

But political observers say they doubt any sort of Armageddon or Doomsday scenarios, in which candidates, like Trump, leave their parties and run as independents, could result in a November voting outcome in which they could win a few states and trigger the need for a final decision in the House.

That last happened in 1824.

'I don't think that is at all likely. Until proven otherwise, it is a two-party system,” said Cody Hoefert, an Iowa Republican Party official from Rock Rapids.

University of Iowa Political Science Professor Tim Hagle said a going-to-the-House scenario also would require that the other major party two candidates would be so evenly split that the votes going to the independent candidate caused the major party candidates to both get fewer than 270 electoral votes - which also would be unlikely.

'It's one of those things in the Constitution that hasn't been used in so long that most people don't even know it exists and would be very unhappy with how it operates,” Hagle said. 'On the whole, if something odd did happen in this election, there would likely be calls to change the process.”

Still, some see varying likelihoods on the possibility that Trump could run as an independent, and a much lesser extent that Republican Carson and Democrats Bernie Sanders or Jim Webb also could mount campaigns as independents.

Buena Vista University Political Science Professor Bradley Best in Storm Lake said it is possible, but not likely, that a wide field of Republican candidates could result in the Republican national convention in July in Cleveland playing out without a clear winner having the needed 1,237 delegates after five months of primaries and caucuses.

That could lead to a so-called brokered convention, in which after a series of conventions votes to settle on a nominee, Republican officials might meet behind closed doors to pitch a completely new candidate.

Having more than the two major-party nominees in the field could change the campaign arc, South Dakota State University Political Science Professor David Wiltse said, perhaps sinking Republican hopes to deny the election of perceived Democratic nominee-in-waiting Hillary Clinton.

'I don't think the House will have to come in and settle the election. If there is a third-party candidate, he'd likely affect only the Republican Party, act as a spoiler and amplify the margin of victory at the state level for the Democratic nominee,” Wiltse said.

Speaking Monday in New Hampshire, Republican candidate Chris Christie said a third-party candidacy would result in the election of Democrat Hillary Clinton.

Hagle said the key pieces involved in running as an independent involve candidates being placed on state ballots, which can be a challenge, as there is no party structure to help them.

Spoilers

Hoefert said he can't see Republicans Trump and Carson running as independents, after statements that indicated they would not. Hoefert said the most likely third-party candidate is Sanders, who is officially an independent but caucuses with Democrats in the Senate.

Hoefert said Sanders could be displeased with the 'coronation” establishment Democrats are pursuing with Clinton and would launch an independent presidential bid out of a desire to enact highly progressive policies.

Hoefert said any independent would have to have substantial access to money and name identification to make a mark. But Hoefert predicted no independent would ever tap into enough voter dissatisfaction to win one of the 50 states.

Woodbury County Democratic Party Chairwoman Penny Rosfjord, of Sioux City, said Trump and Sanders are the two candidates most likely to launch independent runs, but she isn't sold that they will. Rosfjord said those decisions would hinge on how closely Trump would lose the Republican nomination down the stretch and if Democrats add progressive planks Sanders prizes into the party platform.

Rosfjord and Hagle said Trump's massive personal wealth gives him one advantage other independents would not have to compete in the race.

Rosfjord said she doesn't see any independent this year being able to win any state, but she said they could 'end up being a spoiler” by taking away votes from the nominee in their original party, thereby delivering a victory to the other party's nominee. Rosfjord noted that was the factor in 1992, when former Republican candidate Ross Perot got enough votes to undercut Republican incumbent George H.W. Bush, helping hand the election to Democrat Bill Clinton.

Hagle said he sees Webb as the most likely independent candidate, at perhaps a 5 on a 10-scale, and Trump slightly below that. Late December, reports indicated Webb, who dropped out of the Democratic race, could return as an independent.

Hagle said Webb has certain appeal to people who are liberal on various social issues but who have greater concerns about foreign policy and national security than the current Democrats running.

'It's hard to say without knowing who the GOP nominee will be, but taking away votes from Clinton isn't quite the same as having them go to the Republican nominee. Still, given how low (Webb's) appeal was during his short presidential campaign effort, it seems unlikely he'll have much of an effect,” Hagle said.

Best said the likelihood of Trump running as an independent is 50-50, since he 'warns that any mistreatment at the hands of party elites will open the possibility.”

'Frankly, I think Trump aspires to the role of an outsider spurned by the mechanisms of traditional party politics. The Trump campaign knows, I'm quite sure that a significant number of his supporters are Republicans first and Trump fans second,” Best said.

Hagle said is Trump, Sanders, Webb or Carson mount independent campaigns, it is unlikely they would win any states.

Said Hagle, 'Although it seems that Trump is bringing in a lot of independent voters to his campaign, an independent run would likely peel off enough Republicans to hurt the GOP candidate in several states. Unlike Perot, however, Trump is much better at working the media to his advantage. I'm not sure that he would actually win any states, but he could certainly keep the Republican nominee from doing so and thus affect the ultimate outcome.”

Best said a brokered convention is an extreme long-shot, since 'the winnowing effect of the caucus and primary schedule tends to generate a front-runner and momentum in a very real, meaningful force.”