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Iowa, Iowa State and UNI by the numbers
Mar. 10, 2016 5:16 pm
Editor's note: Story by Jeremiah Davis; interactive infographics by Chris Essig.
There are many lessons to be found in advanced stats. Whether basketball — or, really, sports in general — fans and followers like it or not, what can be learned from looking deeper into the stat sheet is invaluable, and ignoring things like tempo, efficiency and how often a team goes to the free throw line is to miss an essential part of the game.
So once again this season, here's a look at what the three Iowa schools headed to the NCAA Tournament are best and worst at, and how they compare to the nation in six key areas based on data from the advanced stats website, KenPom.com: Adjusted Tempo, Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Efficiency, Effective Field Goal Percentage, Turnover Percentage, Offensive Rebound Percentage and Free Throw Rate. On the charts, 'Rank' represents how each team ranked nationally in the listed category, while 'Nation' represents the national average. Readers can click on the 'Offense' and 'Defense' buttons above the charts to see how each team did offensively and defensively in the category. Readers can also rollover/click on the bars for more information.
How a team ranks in these categories — or on KenPom's overall rankings, for that matter — doesn't reveal absolute truth, but they explain a lot. Iowa, Iowa State and Northern Iowa play distinctly different schedules, and enter the NCAA Tournament in different mental and physical states. But the stats are in black and white. Let @CRGazetteSports, and team beat writers @ScottDochterman, @jeremiahdavis10 and @dylanmontz know what you think.
Adjusted tempo
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How fast a team plays is usually dependent on a couple things: a team's personnel and a coach's philosophy. For Iowa, Iowa State and UNI, the weight of which is considered more varies by team.
For Iowa State, which has been fast-paced for the last five or six years, it's a function of the Cyclones' personnel. Monte Morris, Georges Niang and the rest of the crew are quick and do some of their best work when on the run. Given that Fred Hoiberg's NBA-style carried over for much of this season, ISU averaging 71.7 possessions per game isn't shocking.
Iowa sits right near the national average, and for the Hawkeyes, it's been situational. Running in transition isn't necessarily a priority, but with two point guards on the floor much of the time in Mike Gesell and Anthony Clemmons, it's efficient when they do. Not to mention there's Peter Jok there to hit transition 3s.
Northern Iowa once again played at one of the five slowest tempos in the country this season, and that is as much a function of the slow, grind-it-out Missouri Valley as it is Ben Jacobson preaching patience on offense. Wes Washpun can lead the break as well as anyone, but the Panthers are very rarely in track meets.
Adjusted efficiency
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Points per possession has gained steam nationally in describing how well offenses and defenses perform beyond just total points and shooting percentages. Getting the most out of possessions — especially, in UNI's case, when there aren't many — has become even more vital with the shorter shot clock.
Iowa State plays up-tempo, and gets the most out of it more often than not. Even in playing against some of the best competition in the country, the Cyclones rank second in the nation in offensive ppp. They've needed that kind of efficiency on offense, given they rank 113th in defensive efficiency. It's better than the national average, but if ISU wasn't as gifted offensively, they'd be in trouble.
Among the three schools, Iowa is the most consistent on both ends when compared to the nation. The Hawkeyes rank 26th in offensive efficiency and 31st in defensive efficiency, scoring at 1.143 ppp on offense and allowing 0.957 on defense. Iowa has gotten the most out of its team on both ends for most of the year, apart from a few hiccups to end the regular season.
UNI is much less efficient on offense than it was a year ago, with much of that being pulled down over its 2-6 run to start the Missouri Valley Conference season. The Panthers are slightly better than the national average offensively, but can once again rely on defense. UNI struggled defensively to start the season, but progressively got better and ended the regular season 48th at 0.971 ppp.
Effective field goal percentage
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Shooting percentage is usually one of the staples of any box score. It's what most look for, second only to total points (either for the team or an individual), but Effective Field Goal Percentage takes it a step further. It gives extra weight for 3-pointers since those shots have more value than a 2-point shot.
In this area, not only can you tell if a team has good shooters, but if their shot selection is good.
Iowa State adds an outstanding eFG to its up-tempo offense, which is owed to having Georges Niang and Monte Morris as the Cyclones' two leading producers. Abdel Nader coming on strong from deep late in the season has helped, too.
For UNI, it's been a reverse arc in shot selection, as it was very good in the early part of the season, suffered during the Panthers' losing streak, and has returned to the early-season form as the season has hit the stretch run.
Iowa has struggled more and more from the field as the season has hit March. The bench, which at one point this season was one of the strongest in the country, hasn't produced the same, and the Hawkeyes have had to rely more heavily on Jarrod Uthoff and Peter Jok.
Turnover percentage
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The three point guards for Iowa, Iowa State and UNI have experience and a tremendous amount of talent, and this area is one in which the Hawkeyes, Cyclones and Panthers all excel.
All three teams rank in the top 30 of the country in terms of taking care of the ball, with each team 3 percent better than the national average of a turnover on 18.2 percent of possessions. Even with the Hawkeyes' loss in the Big Ten Tournament, they still rank very well and are best among the three. Iowa State and UNI take care of the ball at nearly the same rate.
While the point guards play a huge role, having experienced and poised players all over the floor supplements the man directing the show, and clearly all three have those types of players.
Offense rebound percentage
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Getting the most out of a given possession is clearly vital, and this stat helps further delve into how offenses and defenses are efficient. Preventing or gaining second-chance opportunities goes a long way toward taking away chances for the opponent.
UNI has the biggest disparity on the two ends of the three schools in Iowa headed to the NCAAs. The Panthers are the worst in the country on the offensive boards, grabbing one in just 17.8 percent of their opportunities. But on the other end, UNI is 66th, allowing an offensive board in just 27.2 percent of cases.
Iowa is the only one of the three to be better than the national average on the offensive glass, but ranks in the mid-200s on the defensive glass. One of Iowa State's biggest issues this season has been rebounding, and it shows. The Cyclones are below average on both ends.
Free throw rate
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A wise man once said free throws matter. Free throw rate speaks plainly to how well a team defends without sending teams to the free throw line, and how well an offense exploits a defense to get to the line.
The changes in freedom of movement rules have affected teams at different levels across the country, but the three Iowa schools have been at similar levels on both ends of the floor. All three rank in the top 10 defensively, proving they've adapted well to the new rules and can defend without fouling. Similarly, all three struggle to get to the line with very little regularity.
UNI is second defensively and 275th offensively. Iowa is eighth defensively and 261st offensively. Iowa State is fourth defensively and 350th offensively.
Northern Iowa Panthers guard Wes Washpun (11) celebrates after their win in their NCAA basketball game at the McLeod Center in Cedar Falls on Saturday, Nov. 21, 2015. The Northern Iowa Panthers defeated North Carolina Tar Heels 71-67. (Stephen Mally/The Gazette)
Iowa Hawkeyes forward Jarrod Uthoff (20) tries to drive past Purdue Boilermakers center A.J. Hammons (20) during the second half of a game at Carver-Hawkeye Arena in Iowa City, January 24, 2016. (Cliff Jette/The Gazette)
Feb 29, 2016; Ames, IA, USA; Iowa State Cyclones forward Georges Niang (31) celebrates with guard Monte Morris (11) during the game against the Oklahoma State Cowboys at James H. Hilton Coliseum. The Cyclones beat the Cowboys 58-50. Mandatory Credit: Reese Strickland-USA TODAY Sports