The Big Analysis -- Indiana

When the Hawkeyes have the ball

When Indiana beat the Hawkeyes at Kinnick Stadium in 2007 -- yes, this example is graying, but it's going somewhere -- the Hoosiers put nine sacks on the Hawkeyes. When Indiana pulled a major upset the year before in Bloomington, a late turnover sealed the Hawkeyes' fate.

The point is Indiana's defense hasn't shown up in this game the last two seasons. Iowa pummeled IU 45-9 in 2008. Last season, the Hoosiers couldn't hold a 21-7 lead and allowed 28 points in the fourth quarter while the Hawkeyes surged to a 42-24 victory.

It might be as simple as a lack of playmakers.

Junior DE Darius Johnson (6-0, 252) can be a force. He leads IU defensive linemen and is fourth on the team with 38 tackles (20 solos) to go along with two sacks, three tackles for loss, two quarterback hurries, one forced fumble, one pass breakup and one pass defended. He finished the Northwestern game with a team-high 11 tackles. Johnson plays a stand up position and often drops back into coverage. That can be a filmroom headache.

Sophomore defensive tackle Larry Black Jr. (6-2, 326) can be a playmaker. He was a freshman all-American last season. He has three QB hurries. Adam and Tyler Replogle can do that. Adam (6-3, 295) is an active sophomore tackle who logged three starts at DE at the beginning of the season. Tyler is a strongside linebacker who is second on the team with 56 tackles.

The secondary has some experience. Safeties Donnell Jones and Mitchell Evans have 27 starts between them. Redshirt freshman Greg Heban is an interesting story. He made his first start against NU last week. He came to Indiana as a walk-on baseball player. Corner Matt Ernest made the switch to corner from wide receiver this spring. He's also a pitcher on the Hoosiers baseball team.

Northwestern went seven games without a 100-yard rusher. Last week against Indiana, running back Mike Trumpy rushed 21 times for 110 yards.

The numbers aren't nice for IU's defense. The Hoosiers are ninth in the conference in scoring (29.4 points a game), eighth in pass defense (216.6), 10th in rush defense (167.5), ninth in total defense (384.1) and 10th in pass efficiency defense (147.7). Teams also are completing 64.5 percent of their passes against IU.

The Hawkeyes should be able to throw the ball.

Senior QB Ricky Stanzi has treated the football like a gold doubloon. Yes, he's thrown just the two interceptions this season, but he also has gone 93 passes without an interception. The Hawkeyes also have had just .97 of their passes intercepted overall this season. That's the fewest in the nation with Boise State (.98) being the only other team in the country with less than one percent of its passes intercepted.

Iowa's pass offense is in high gear, but, of course, the big question this week for Iowa's defense is the health of running back Adam Robinson. Sources told The Gazette on Wednesday that Robinson, the No. 3 rusher in the Big Ten with 100.8 yards a game, suffered a concussion during the Michigan State game and would be monitored for availability throughout the week. Robinson also leads the Big Ten in carries with 172.

If Robinson isn't able to play, true freshman Marcus Coker likely will be the guy. He carried 16 times for 40 yards in mostly mop-up duty against Michigan State. Those were his first carries since Ball State on Sept. 25. Freshman Brad Rogers likely will see some time at running back, sliding back from No. 2 fullback.

But, most likely, Iowa will lean on Stanzi and a passing game that might be the best in the Kirk Ferentz era. You have Stanzi and his 19 TDs to two interceptions and you have wide receivers Derrell Johnson-Koulianos and Marvin McNutt, who's combined for nearly 2,500 yards in the last 20 games. And Iowa's tight ends Allen Reisner and Brad Herman have teamed to become an efficient and dangerous duo.

Guards Julian Vandervelde (hip) and Adam Gettis (ankle) left last week's game, but should be good to go today.

Advantage: Iowa

When the Hoosiers have the ball

Indiana QB Ben Chappell (6-3, 242) isn't very mobile. He walked into Monday interviews wearing a boot on his injured left foot. He missed practice Tuesday, but returned Wednesday and that's a great thing for the Hoosiers.

Chappell (18 TDs and 7 INTs) is a big QB with a with a big arm. He won't just dink and dunk out of the spread. He'll try to stretch the defense throwing it down the field. He can make just about every throw and he has great vision. IU coach Bill Lynch believes Chappell, who leads the Big Ten with 305.8 yards a game, always finds the open man, which makes the receivers work hard because they know they'll get the ball if they're open.

And what a group this is. Demarlo Belcher, Tanden Doss and Terrance Turner are 1-2-3 in the Big Ten with 7.25, 5.71 and 5.25 receptions a game. Belcher is second in yards a game (82.0) and Doss is fourth (71.9).

They're big, too. Like basketball team big. Doss (6-3), Belcher (6-5), Turner (6-3) and Duwyce Wilson (6-3) team with 6-6 tight end Ted Bolser. The Hoosiers present potential matchup problems.

But the Hoosiers lack balance. Running back Darius Willis suffered a season-ending patellar tendon injury, the team announced Oct. 14. Willis was IU's running game last season, starting six games in 2009 and leading Indiana with 607 yards and six touchdowns on 123 carries.

Senior Trea Burgess (6-1, 225) has taken over for Willis, rushing for 264 yards and a TD this season. In a 36-34 victory over Arkansas State, Burgess rushed for 102 yards, one of two 100-yard games for the Hoosiers (last in the Big Ten with 97.5 rushing yards a game) this season.

The Hoosiers' O-line got injured right tackle James Brewer (6-8, 331) for most of last week's game. That was a boost. The left side is relatively new with tackle Andrew McDonald (6-6, 306) and guard Aaron Price (6-4, 305) combining for 18 starts. But center Will Matte (6-2, 293) and the right side, guard Justin Pagan (6-5, 308) and Brewer have combined for 59 starts.

Protection of Chappell, who lines up 4 yards from center in a pistol shotgun position, has been an issue the last few weeks.

An experienced QB and a dangerous group of receivers is not exactly what Iowa needed this week.

Iowa likely will be breaking a fairly new group of linebackers into action today. True freshman James Morris will get his second career start at middle linebacker. Last week, redshirt freshman Shane DiBona made his first career start on the weakside. Someone will have to start in place of junior outside linebacker Tyler Nielsen, who suffered a fractured vertebrae against Michigan State and will miss the season with a 12-week recovery ahead of him. 

Morris could be surrounded by two seniors. It's a best-case scenario kind of deal, but Kirk Ferentz said on his radio show Wednesday night that senior weakside linebacker Jeremiha Hunter could return. He missed last week's game after suffering a knee injury against Wisconsin. Senior Jeff Tarpinian, who missed three games with a neck/shoulder stinger, played in passing situations last week and does have some experience at outside linebacker.

That could work. The veterans on Iowa's defense have embraced Morris, a heady player who's beyond his years on and off the field. DE Adrian Clayborn said Morris brings a "nerdy freshman energy."

If Iowa gets creative with personnel packages, sophomore corner Greg Castillo has been called on for dime duty. In 3-4 alignments last week, senior Lance Tillison was the fourth linebacker.

Advantage: Iowa

Special teams

IU punter Will Hagerup is 10th in the Big Ten with 39.2 yards a punt. The most dangerous number here for the Hoosiers isn' t 39.2, it's the two punts that Hagerup has had blocked this season, including one last week against Northwestern. IU alternates between field goal kickers, but Mitch Ewald (9 fo 11) seems to be the guy. He had a streak of nine straight chopped down against Northwestern last week.

IU is among the national leaders averaging 24.0 yards per kick return. The total is fourth in the conference and 27th nationally. Junior Tandon Doss, who ranks eighth on the school's career kick return yardage list with 1,125 yards, is fourth in the conference and ranks 32nd nationally with a 25.7 average on 23 returns, including a long of 87 yards at Western Kentucky. He leads the Big Ten with 23 kick returns.

Iowa's only special teams blemish last week was kicker Mike Meyer's PAT miss he pulled left and doinked off the left upright. Otherwise, it was clear sailing a week after as many as six special teams errors factored in a loss to Wisconsin.

Senior Derrell Johnson-Koulianos' kick off returns deserve mention here. He's second in the Big Ten with 27.5 yards a return. Meanwhile, senior wide receiver Colin Sandeman is third in the conference with 8.5 yards a punt return.

Get to know Meyer. Barring a kink in his development or something unforeseen, he's going to be Iowa's kicker for the next four seasons.

Advantage: Indiana

The Scoreboard

Iowa could find out this week how much running back Adam Robinson is worth. The last time the Hawkeyes played in Bloomington, they cruised behind a rush offense that produced 227 yards. Robinson is capable of that. He's also become a bonafide weapon as a receiver. Is he worth 10 points today? There's also the "look ahead" factor. That hadn't taken root this week in the complex, but the outside world has gone ahead flipped the schedule to Nov. 20 and Ohio State.

First things first. There is no big Ohio State game for Iowa with a loss at Indiana.

Iowa 38, Indiana 20