Iowa experts: Anything could happen in Senate race

JOHNSTON - Iowa's open-seat U.S. Senate race is close and could swing either direction before Election Day.

That was the consensus Friday of political experts and a prominent Iowa pollster during taping of Iowa Public Television's 'Iowa Press” program.

Most polls have shown the race between Democrat Bruce Braley and Republican Joni Ernst very close, usually within the margin of error. Recent polls by Selzer & Co. and Quinnipiac University showed Ernst with a lead just outside the margin of error.

'What I would say about this election in Iowa at the Senate level, certainly is by every indication it's a close race,” said Arthur Sanders, a political-science professor at Drake University. 'And in a close race, it doesn't take a big thing to shift things around.”

Sanders appeared on this week's edition of 'Iowa Press” with University of Northern Iowa political science professor Chris Larimer and Ann Selzer, president of the polling company that conducts the Iowa Poll for the Des Moines Register.

Selzer said although her firm's most recent poll showed Ernst in the lead, races can shift in October, the final full month before the Nov. 4 election.

'In the closing months, the last two months of the campaign, really after Labor Day, it's not unusual to see a lead change or not change,” Selzer said. 'I think the biggest influence that will alter things is money. We have so much more money in these campaigns, so much more TV time, so much more direct contact. That's what can be the deciding factor.”

That analysis is welcome news for Ernst, who announced Friday morning that she raised approximately $6 million in the most recent fundraising period. That was more than double the roughly $3 million raised by Braley in the same period.

Some of that $6 million is likely to be invested in more campaign advertising. Iowa television viewers have been inundated by campaign ads, many of which have been negative in tone.

Sanders said during 'Iowa Press” that negative ads have proved to be more effective in swaying voters who may be undecided but leaning toward one candidate.

'The goal is to make you fearful of the other candidate. That's the most effective advertising technique that you have. And there are all kinds of social psychology reasons to explain why negativity is more important to people than positivity,” Sanders said. 'The key goal is you're trying to convince some people who might be leaning toward the other person to reconsider that decision. And the best way to do that is not by saying how great I am, it's by saying look at the things that are wrong with that other person.”

Selzer summarized the theme of those negative campaign ads.

'‘I'm better than that idiot over there,' basically,” Selzer said.

The experts were asked about the perceived electoral glass ceiling in Iowa, which is one of only two states - along with Mississippi - that has never elected a woman to Congress or as governor.

Sanders said he thinks the issue is more about challenging incumbents than women vs. men. He said there is a better opportunity this year when two of the three women running for federal office - Ernst and Staci Appel in the 3rd Congressional District race - are running for open seats.

'It's much harder to win when you're challenging an incumbent,” Sanders said.