Iowa State's fate may hinge on Texas A&M

If Texas A&M agrees to stay in the Big 12 instead of jumping to the Southeastern Conference, the Big 12 may stay alive and even -- believe it or not -- well.

In perhaps another wild turn of the wildest week in college sports since Bevo was a calf and Tom Osborne was a third-grader, the Big 12 just might stay together.

According to the omnipresent Orangebloods.com, University of Texas officials could announce their decision to stay put and not join the Pacific-10 Conference as early as today.

If Texas stays, so does Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech. I think.

But Texas A&M is the wild-card, apparently.

Here is the vital info provided by Orangebloods:

Big 12 Commissioner Dan Beebe has secured information that enough money could be inked in its next TV negotiation (in 2011) to lift revenues per school from between $7 million and $10 million in the Big 12 currently to $17 million beginning in 2012, which is what the SEC pays out.

The 10 remaining Big 12 schools would divide up the more than $20 million in buyout penalties that will have to be paid by Colorado and Nebraska for leaving the league early.

Individal institutions would be allowed to pursue their own networks, which gets Texas all hot.

The Big 12 would proceed with 10 teams. Everyone would play everyone in football, providing a nine-game conference schedule, and no league title game for the time being.

If the Aggies agree and this is how it goes, Iowa State suddenly goes from a dire situation to a much-improved one. More cash, conference security (for the time being), and a retention of membership in a BCS conference.

Incredible as it seems, the departure of Nebraska from the Big 12 could turn out to help ISU.

But this is written at 10:45 a.m., Monday. By noon, Texas may have joined the Mountain West.

My gut feeling: None of these Big 12 schools in the Southwest are thrilled to go to the Pac-10, but they're simply following the money. If the money is there in the Big 12 -- and that strikes me as a big if -- why would they not stay put, especially when Texas can add to its empire with its own TV network?

On the other hand, what if this is just a ploy to make Texas A&M look like the bad guy if the Aggies are dead-set on moving to the SEC?

And on the third hand, if A&M leaves, why not just go with a nine-team league? You still have Texas and Oklahoma for TV purposes, and then you only play an eight-game football schedule with more leeway for home games and the occasional nonconference blockbuster?

UPDATE: The Big 12 South schools have regents' meetings scheduled this week to discuss the merits of staying put or slipping off to the Pac-12.

This story from The Oklahoman elaborates on the matter. To me, it still looks like it's Texas A&M's decision to make. Unless the Big 12 is willing to become the Big 9.