Groundhog Day NCAA projections: Where will they go?

We're now less than six weeks out from Selection Sunday, which is an eternity in college basketball between the high-caliber month of February and conference tournaments. We will see plenty of teams rise, several fall and then some crazy upsets in one-bid conferences that will render any prediction moot even a week before the picks are made.

For the three local teams, Iowa State and Northern Iowa are virtually locks to make the tournament barring a major collapse. Despite a three-game losing streak, Iowa's prospects are decent as long as the Hawkeyes can finish Big Ten play at 10-8. That seems likely. Iowa's first 10 league opponents have a Big Ten record of 57-33. Its last eight league opponents are 23-49.

Here's a way-to-early look at NCAA tournament projections based on rankings, conference standings and RPI figures:

CLEVELAND REGIONAL

1. Kentucky vs. 16. Texas Southern-Albany, Louisville, Ky.

8. Cincinnati vs. 9. Syracuse, Louisville, Ky.

4. Maryland vs. 13. Kent State, Pittsburgh

5. Virginia Commonwealth vs. 12. Wofford, Pittsburgh

3. Notre Dame vs. 14. Valparaiso, Columbus, Ohio

6. Baylor vs. 11. Colorado State, Columbus, Ohio

2. Villanova vs. 15. William & Mary, Pittsburgh

7. Stanford vs. 10. Iowa, Pittsburgh

SYRACUSE REGIONAL

1. Virginia vs. 16. High Point, Charlotte, N.C.

8. Georgia vs. 9. Providence, Charlotte, N.C.

4. Iowa State vs. 13. Iona, Omaha, Neb.

5. Ohio State vs. 12. Louisiana Tech, Omaha, Neb.

3. Louisville vs. 14. N.C. Central, Jacksonville, Fla.

6. Wichita State vs. 11. Oklahoma State, Jacksonville, Fla.

2. Arizona vs. 15. UC-Davis, Portland, Ore.

7. Michigan State vs. 10. Miami (Fla.), Portland, Ore.

LOS ANGELES REGIONAL

1. Wisconsin vs. 16. North Florida-St. Francis (N.Y.) winner, Louisville, Ky.

8. Arkansas vs. 9. Dayton, Louisville, Ky.

4. Butler vs. 13. Stephen F. Austin, Columbus, Ohio

5. West Virginia vs. 12. Murray State, Columbus, Ohio

3. North Carolina vs. 14. Yale, Jacksonville, Fla.

6. SMU vs. 11. Xavier, Jacksonville, Fla.

2. Gonzaga vs. 15. Bucknell, Seattle

7. Texas vs. 10. Tulsa, Seattle

HOUSTON REGIONAL

1. Kansas vs. 16. New Mexico State, Omaha, Neb.

8. Indiana vs. 9. North Carolina State, Omaha, Neb.

4. Northern Iowa vs. 13. Eastern Washington, Seattle

5. San Diego State vs. 12. Temple-Seton Hall winner, Seattle

3. Utah vs. 14. South Dakota State, Portland, Ore.

6. Oklahoma vs. 11. Purdue-LSU winner, Portland, Ore.

2. Duke vs. 15. Georgia Southern, Charlotte, N.C.

7. Georgetown vs. 10. Texas A&M, Charlotte, N.C.

l Comments: (319) 339-3169; scott.dochterman@thegazette.com