Trump fourth among Republican hopefuls in new Iowa State poll

CEDAR RAPIDS - He's riding high in many polls but Donald Trump finished fourth in a survey of likely Iowa GOP caucusgoers who chose 'honest and trustworthy” as the leading trait they seek when deciding which candidate to back.

Retired physician Ben Carson topped the Republican field with 27.2 percent in an Iowa State University/WHO-HD caucus poll conducted earlier this month. Freshman Sens. Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz polled 16.7 percent and 16.2 percent, respectively, to finish ahead of Trump, who was the first choice of 14.7 percent of likely caucusgoers.

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton had a wide lead over Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders - 49.5 percent to 27.8 percent.

The contest for the Democratic Party's presidential nomination appears to be settled 'barring some major personal or policy issue arising between now and Feb. 1,” said Mack Shelley, ISU professor and chairman of political science and professor of statistics.

However, he added, 'it's not clear at this time whether there could be a surge of support from younger, and particularly first-time, potential caucus attendees, who are likely to support Bernie Sanders.”

Sander may have hit his ceiling, said ISU political science Professor James McCormick, 'Unless he can persuade an influx of young voters, and those who have not attended a caucus previously, to turn out on Feb. 1.”

He also noted the former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley's support 'is largely invisible, even after the most recent Democratic debate held in Des Moines.”

The outcome seems less certain on the Republican side where there still is an ebb and flow of support among the large field of contenders.

'That can make a huge difference in that fragmented electorate, where a candidate could ‘win' the caucuses with only about 20 to 30 percent of the vote,” Shelley added.

The race could change quickly if some second-tier Republican candidates drop out of the race if resources dry up, McCormick said.

Noting that political novices and Washington outsiders continue to dominate the Republican field, McCormick said Republicans 'seem to be opting for this kind of a nominee.”

Poll respondents said they are looking for 'honesty and trustworthiness” in their nominee. Thirty-eight percent listed that as the leading trait followed by 'takes a strong stand - 20.8 percent. 'Cares about people” and 'has the right experience” were to top trait for 17 percent and 16 percent, respectively.

Eighty-one percent of those responding to the poll said they are following the presidential campaign 'very closely” with slightly more than half saying they had 'definitely decided” (21 percent) or were 'leaning toward” (30 percent) a particular candidate, leaving 47 percent still trying to decide.

The economy was cited by 22 percent of likely caucusgoers as the most important issue facing the nation. People with higher levels of education, those earning more than $100,000 a year and men were more likely to cite the economy as the most pressing issue. By a 25 to 20 percent margin, Republicans were more likely than Democrats to cite the economy as their top issue.

Among respondents with annual incomes under $25,000, 16 percent identified the economy as the most important problem.

Dissatisfaction with government/Congress was cited by 10.9 percent of the respondent as their top concern and 10 percent listed the federal budget and deficit.

The ISU/WHO-HD poll was compiled through phone interviews Nov. 2-15 with 1,074 registered voters - 496 Democrats, 518 Republicans and 61 independents. The margin of error is approximately 3 percent. More women (52.9 percent) than men (47.1 percent) participated in the phone interviews, which averaged 12 minutes. By age, 627 respondents (58.4 percent) were more than 50 years old; 295 (27.5 percent) were ages 30-50, and 152 (14.2 percent) were under 30.