Democrats, Republicans spar over early vote milestone

DAVENPORT - Republicans and Democrats were sparring Thursday over the meaning of new figures that show the GOP gaining the upper hand in absentee votes, a milestone for a party that until this election season put relatively little effort into the practice.

For years, Democrats have gained an electoral edge by winning the absentee vote, but Republicans vowed this year to make an unprecedented effort to catch up. And on Wednesday, they did.

Figures released early Thursday by the Iowa Secretary of State's office showed 105,347 Republicans had voted early, while 104,984 Democrats had cast ballots. At this point four years ago, Democrats led by roughly 16,000 absentee votes.

'I don't believe anybody thought we were going to have this kind of success,” an exultant state GOP chair Jeff Kaufmann said Wednesday night, when it became clear that Republicans had gained the edge.

Democrats acknowledged Thursday the effort Republicans are putting into early voting, but they say the important thing is they're still winning the battle to harvest voters who traditionally don't vote in midterm elections.

Democrats said that as of earlier this week, their data showed them to be about 12,000 ballots ahead of the Republicans among low-propensity voters.

That's what matters, the party says. It does little good to get people who would have voted on Election Day to simply cast their votes early, they say.

'Democrats are expanding the midterm electorate and are turning out non-midterm voters,” said Christina Freundlich, a spokeswoman for the Iowa Democratic Party.

The party says 21 percent of its early voters are people who did not vote in 2010 and some who didn't vote in 2012, while 14 percent of the Republicans early votes this year didn't cast ballots in those elections.

They also say about a third of the early independent votes are low-propensity voters, and their modeling shows Democrats with a 2-1 edge with them.

The Republican Party of Iowa did not release overall data Thursday, but a memo from a consultant to the GOP said that over the past six weeks, the Republicans have grown their share of low-propensity voters, while the Democrats' share has shrunk.

The party also has argued Democrats are being overly optimistic in predicting their share of independent early voters.

The spat over reading the early vote is important.

More than four out of 10 Iowa voters are expected to cast ballots before Election Day even arrives this year. And winning the battle to turn out early voters who wouldn't otherwise cast ballots in a midterm is key to the Democrats' overall strategy, especially in the high-profile U.S. Senate race between Rep. Bruce Braley, D-Iowa, and Republican Joni Ernst.

Traditionally, Republicans turn out in higher numbers in midterm elections, and on Election Day 2010, 70,000 more Republicans than Democrats cast ballots that day.

Republicans acknowledged they likely won't keep their early vote lead, but even if that's the case, eroding the Democrats' advantage this year will put them in position to win when all the votes are counted, they say.

Democrats counter that the GOP's new-found enthusiasm for early voting will catch up to them by eroding their traditional Election Day advantage. Coupled with an early vote lead, they say, it will put them in a good position.

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James Q. Lynch contributed to this article.