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2-Minute Drill: Iowa State Cyclones vs. Oklahoma Sooners
Nov. 2, 2016 5:30 pm
Breaking down No. 14 Oklahoma (6-2, 5-0) vs. Iowa State (1-7, 0-5). Kickoff is 6:30 p.m. Thursday at Jack Trice Stadium (ESPN).
ISU RUSH OFFENSE VS. OU RUSH DEFENSE
Iowa State put 154 rushing yards on Kansas State, the best run defense in the Big 12, but won't get any breaks on a quick turnaround.
Oklahoma has the second-best run defense in the conference, allowing just 123.4 yards per game and 3.6 yards per carry. The Cyclones have produced a middling run offense through the majority of the season with quarterback Joel Lanning taking on a bigger role.
Running backs Mike Warren and David Montgomery have been sharing carries, but much of the run-game success has come through designed quarterback runs. Lanning has averaged 14 carries per game in the last four games and racked up 210 yards in that span. Despite a marginalized role compared to his redshirt freshman year, Warren still is ninth in the Big 12 in yards per game (66.2) with the third-most carries. He has 530 rushing yards.
More: Iowa State trying to simplify in short week
Lanning's ability as a runner or passer has set defenses off balance, but the Sooners will likely be tuned into ambushing the ISU offensive line. OU linebacker Jordan Evans is fifth in the league with eight tackles per game.
Advantage: Oklahoma
ISU PASS OFFENSE VS. OU PASS DEFENSE
The passing game remains the strength of the Iowa State offense. Quarterbacks Joel Lanning and Jacob Park continued their rotation last week with some success, but Cyclones Coach Matt Campbell might have found the rotation pattern that serves the two best.
As opposed to alternating every two or so series like they had in previous games, Lanning and Park rotated within the same series late against Kansas State. It was partly a product of the Wildcats defense, but also a way to keep both from sitting on the sideline for long stretches.
Lanning is 95-for-160 passing for 1,224 yards with nine touchdowns and three interceptions while Park is 60-for-109 for 770 yards with six touchdowns and three picks. Both serve different purposes within the offense and as it stands the last four games, the rotation won't be stopping.
Oklahoma owns the No. 122 pass defense in FBS, worst in the Big 12, giving up 315.5 yards per game. The Sooners allow quarterbacks to complete just 58.2 percent of passes, but if Iowa State is able to get wide receivers Allen Lazard, Trever Ryen, Deshaunte Jones and Dondre Daley in some space with quick throws, the more spread out it will make the defenders.
Advantage: Iowa State
OU RUSH OFFENSE VS. ISU RUSH DEFENSE
Just when it looked like Oklahoma would be bringing in a number of stud running backs Thursday night, it now will be without its top-two ball carriers.
Samaje Perine will miss his third game in a row with a leg injury and Joe Mixon will be suspended this week for violating team rules. That leaves running back Abdul Adams as the primary ball carrier.
Adams has 41 carries for 215 yards (5.2 ypc) while quarterback Baker Mayfield has run 48 times for 139 yards. The absence of Perine and Mixon, while not ideal, isn't necessarily devastating to the Sooners run game.
Iowa State is No. 112 in FBS, and last in the Big 12, in rush defense. Teams have rushed for 233.6 yards per game on the Cyclones with the front seven lacking the ability to create much push. The Sooners run game won't be the same without their two running backs, but history says the holes, no matter who is attempting to run through them, will be there.
Advantage: Oklahoma
OU PASS OFFENSE VS. ISU PASS DEFENSE
Oklahoma's run game normally has a number of talented pieces, but even that is outdone by what the Sooners have in the passing game.
It all starts with quarterback Baker Mayfield, who completes 70 percent of his passes, and has thrown for 2,589 yards (323.6 ypg) and 27 touchdowns to five interceptions. He's also the most efficient Big 12 quarterback — a league known for passing — at 196.0.
Wide receiver Dede Westbrook is Mayfield's primary target and averages 7.1 catches and 129.4 receiving yards per game. He has 11 touchdowns and averages a Big-12 best 9.2 points per game.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯October 30, 2016
¯\_(ツ)_/¯@baker_mayfield6 ➡️ @DedeTHEGreat11 for the 41-yard TD! #BeatKansas https://t.co/IIw6v9mE8D
— Oklahoma Football (@OU_Football)
Running back Joe Mixon, who will serve a suspension Thursday, also is typically a key part of the OU air attack.
Iowa State has found defensive strength through its secondary, holding opponents to 219.4 passing yards per game while ranking as the third-best pass defense efficiency team in the league. Safety Kamari Cotton-Moya is the leading ISU tackler (6.9 tpg). The Cyclones have held their own much of the time through the air, but expect Oklahoma to look to the air early and often.
Advantage: Oklahoma
SPECIAL TEAMS
The suspension of OU running back Joe Mixon will have a ripple effect in special teams, too. He is second in the Big 12 in kick return average and first in all-purpose yards. Wide receiver Dede Westbrook likely will fit in somewhere in the return game in Mixon's place. Austin Seibert handles kicking and punting duties for Oklahoma, but ranks fifth or below among league peers in both categories.
Iowa State, according to ESPN statistics, is the 25th best special teams squad in FBS. Kicker Cole Netten has made 16-of-17 field goals since last season — his only miss a 50-yarder — while Colin Downing has the most punt opportunities in the Big 12 while averaging 41.4 yards per kick. Freshman Kene Nwangwu is third in the conference in kick return average with a league-high 26 returns and 24.4 yards per return.
Advantage: Iowa State
INTANGIBLES
1. The series — Oklahoma dominates. In 81 meetings between Oklahoma and Iowa State, the Sooners are 73-5-2. Since 1961, Iowa State is 1-44-1 in the series with the only win coming in 1990 in Norman, 33-31. Oklahoma has won 17 straight in the matchup.
2. Campbell a Sooner? — Fresh off his run as a college player at Division III Mount Union, ISU Coach Matt Campbell sent OU Coach Bob Stoops — both are from Ohio — a letter. Like many young, aspiring coaches, he wanted to be a graduate assistant at the historic program. 'I didn't get it,' Campbell said with a smile. 'I don't even know if I got a return back from it.'
3. Thursday night football — Iowa State is 21-11 all-time on Thursday night, including 10-3 in its last 13. The last Thursday night game the Cyclones played was in 2013, a 31-30 home loss to Texas.
3 AND OUT
1. Red zone touchdowns — Iowa State was nearly perfect in the red zone through its first seven games, but has now missed two scoring chances in its last two games. The Cyclones are 23-of-25 scoring inside the 20, but seven of those scores have been field goals. Iowa State has to find a way to score touchdowns if it wants to pull an upset.
2. Control the clock — Oklahoma's air raid attack, while controlled, can move fast. Iowa State has to find ways to dictate the game through ball control. The Sooners average 29:48 in time of possession, with the Cyclones just behind at 29:16. The two squads both are minus-4 in turnover margin.
3. Make simple plays — This goes somewhat with red zone efficiency, but it pertains to everywhere on the field. Catch the ball. Make the throw. Block the defender. Tackle the ball carrier. Do the little things right, so they don't end up being big problems later.
ISU WILL WIN IF ... It slows down the game and forces Oklahoma into a few turnovers. The Cyclones will have to have a few fortunate opportunities bounce their way.
OU WILL WIN IF ... It is able to control both lines of scrimmage. Iowa State has struggled with depth up front offensively and defensively. The Sooners are well aware of that by now.
PREDICTION: Oklahoma 45, Iowa State 14
Abdul Adams is the suddenly the guy at running back for Oklahoma. (Mark D. Smith/USA TODAY Sports)