E-cars: many models, few buyers

Automakers plan to roll out more than a hundred new battery-powered models in the next five years. But are drivers buzzed about the new technology?

Electric cars - which today comprise only one percent of auto sales worldwide, and even less in the United States - will account for just 2.4 percent of U.S. demand and less than 10 percent globally by 2025, according to researcher LMC Automotive.

But while consumer appetite slogs along, carmakers are still planning a tidal wave of battery-powered models that may find interested buyers few and far between.

'When you hear people talk about the tipping point, it's really that they're counting the number of product offerings,” said Hau Thai-Tang, Ford Motors's global head of product development and purchasing. 'Nobody can cite what the actual demand will be.”

With battery costs declining rapidly and Tesla's stock price on a tear, automakers are rushing to get in the game with their own all-electric models.

General Motors has announced plans to debut 20 models by 2023, while Ford and Volkswagen are among those planning new electric lineups in China. Toyota this week promised more than 10 electric models by early next decade.

In total, 127 battery-electric models will be introduced worldwide in the next five years, Thai-Tang said, with LMC predicting pure electric offerings will increase by more than fivefold to 75 models in the United States alone.

'There's certainly more hype than real growth in sales volume,” Jeff Schuster, senior vice president of forecasting for LMC, said in an interview. 'How long have we been talking about EVs? We're now finally seeing them in numbers, but the sales numbers are not taking over the industry by any means.”

It's a mix of panic and promise that's driving automakers to set ambitious goals to catch up to perceived market leaders such as Tesla and GM, which each are enjoying a run-up in their stock prices this year.

GM Chief Executive Officer Mary Barra said her company will sell more than one million electric vehicles per year-profitably-by 2026. Tesla CEO Elon Musk had been planning to build half a million electric cars in 2018 - although that timeline could be jeopardized by missed production targets for the $35,000 Model 3 sedan.

There's a growing optimism that the electric market is ready for liftoff, based in part on improvements in battery chemistry and costs and in part on the Field of Dreams adage - if you build it, they will come. Still, the rush to electrify in the face of uncertain demand has left auto suppliers on edge. They have to build factories and invest to develop components of battery-powered propulsion systems to support the automakers' aggressive ambitions.