Shutdown Showdown Low-down

So, the 2011 Iowa budget impasse, code named Operation Sitzkrieg, continues. Gov. Terry Branstad and fellow Republicans who control the House are still at odds with that ragtag band of Democrats who run the Senate. The Legislature technically remains in session, although our General Assembly has become akin to a lightly attended open house for a departing employee that nobody likes. Without cake.

The latest:

Gov. Terry Branstad had a press conference this morning where he sadly announced that this whole budget thing means he will not be leading a trade delegation to Asia. Lt. Gov. Kim Reynolds will do the leading. She promised to bring back a T-shirt for the guv. And a Great Wall snow globe.

Can't we at least get the governor some Mongolian barbecue?

“I intend to stay here and hold their feet to the fire,” (Branstad) said.The governor said the sticking point that currently is holding up a budget agreement is the level of future spending. Branstad and House Republicans have agree to hold state spending for fiscal 2012 at $6 billion while Democrats who control the Senate want to spend more – especially a higher level of funding for K-12 schools, community colleges and regent universities.

The governor said the sticking point that currently is holding up a budget agreement is the level of future spending. Branstad and House Republicans have agree to hold state spending for fiscal 2012 at $6 billion while Democrats who control the Senate want to spend more – especially a higher level of funding for K-12 schools, community colleges and regent universities.

Branstad's office is also making contingency plans in case a budget deal is not reached by July 1, when we traditionally ring in a new fiscal year and gather with friends and family to watch the accruals trickle in . Without a state budget, the government could shutdown. You like your state parks open on the Fourth of July? Too bad.

Branstad's staff is on the case. And the governor is readying his special powers, says Radio Iowa.

“The governor has emergency powers whenever there's an emergency. I am not anticipating an emergency,” Branstad says. “I will deal with it if I have to, but I think they need to get serious about doing the job and I have cancelled my trip so I will be available to do whatever I have to do.”

But can he dissolve the Senate? No. Speaking of, Democrats are wanting to know more about what a shutdown would mean. Prisoners would stay in prison, sure, but what if the Capitol cafeteria runs out of ranch dressing? Tell us, dear leader.

From a letter sent today from Senate Dems to Branstad:

We have all publicly stated that we want to avoid a state government shutdown. Senate Democrats have backed up those public statements by making multiple offers designed to be a middle ground between what you originally proposed for a state budget in January and what the Senate has already approved.At the same time, we understand that your Administration has already initiated contingency planning for an orderly shutdown of state government should the negotiations not be completed by June 30th.We would suggest that you use as a model the actions of the Obama Administration during the recent near-shutdown of federal government services. At that time, President Obama used a two-pronged approach. The approach included:• Continuing to negotiate in good faith with the realization that a middle-ground settlement would include pieces that each side wouldn't agree with 100 percent. That, after all, is what compromise is all about.• Providing information to all taxpayers – including individuals and businesses that receive government services, individuals and businesses that contract with the state to provide services to Iowans, and state employees and their families – about what would happen if no budget deal is reached this month and the government runs out of money at midnight on June 30th.In the case of the Obama Administration, this included conference calls to answer questions, posting answers to frequently asked questions on the Internet, memos posted on the websites of each government agency, and an overall strategy to plan for a shutdown

At the same time, we understand that your Administration has already initiated contingency planning for an orderly shutdown of state government should the negotiations not be completed by June 30th.

We would suggest that you use as a model the actions of the Obama Administration during the recent near-shutdown of federal government services. At that time, President Obama used a two-pronged approach. The approach included:

• Continuing to negotiate in good faith with the realization that a middle-ground settlement would include pieces that each side wouldn't agree with 100 percent. That, after all, is what compromise is all about.

• Providing information to all taxpayers – including individuals and businesses that receive government services, individuals and businesses that contract with the state to provide services to Iowans, and state employees and their families – about what would happen if no budget deal is reached this month and the government runs out of money at midnight on June 30th.

In the case of the Obama Administration, this included conference calls to answer questions, posting answers to frequently asked questions on the Internet, memos posted on the websites of each government agency, and an overall strategy to plan for a shutdown www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/omb/memoranda/2011/m11-13.pdf.

Governor, please find a WWBOD bracelet enclosed. Keep it with no obligation. Love, Dems.

The governor's response?  I am your father. So do what I say. Productive?

But when you clear away all of the posturing and burning feet and cancelled trips, family dysfunction, this is all about numbers. I think The Register of Des Moines did a fine job breaking it down:

Branstad and House Republicans have agreed to set the state budget at $5.9 billion, $400 million less than what they are legally allowed to spend.Senate Democrats have approved $6.2 billion in spending, which they say would prevent reductions in essential state services while maintaining cash balances...Iowa's chief operating account known as the general fund is projected to have a surplus of cash and balances in so-called “rainy day” accounts of more than $900 million at the end of the June 30th fiscal year, according to projections made earlier this year by the nonpartisan Legislative Services Agency. Since then new revenue estimates have been made, pumping the state's projected revenue up another $48.6 million.Democrats argue that there is money available to pay for key state services such as education while Republicans say ongoing costs in upcoming years will eat any so-called surplus, requiring less spending.

Senate Democrats have approved $6.2 billion in spending, which they say would prevent reductions in essential state services while maintaining cash balances...

Iowa's chief operating account known as the general fund is projected to have a surplus of cash and balances in so-called “rainy day” accounts of more than $900 million at the end of the June 30th fiscal year, according to projections made earlier this year by the nonpartisan Legislative Services Agency. Since then new revenue estimates have been made, pumping the state's projected revenue up another $48.6 million.

Democrats argue that there is money available to pay for key state services such as education while Republicans say ongoing costs in upcoming years will eat any so-called surplus, requiring less spending.

So basically, there is money available for a compromise on education spending that still results in a very responsible state budget. Revenues are growing. It's sort of remarkable that there isn't a deal.

It appears that the GOP strategy is to essentially lay siege to the Senate until it surrenders. The base and fired up new members will like that. Compromise is for losers.

But there is really no incentive whatsoever for Senate Democrats to leave without more school funding beyond the zero percent budget growth being offered by Republicans. So surrender is very unlikely.

Branstad argues that he gave up on his corporate income tax cut and preschool vouchers. True, but the main problem with the corporate tax cut was that even Republicans weren't crazy about it, especially if you have to jack up casino tax rates to afford it. And although we won't have preschool vouchers, the Republican budget still provides less than half of the dollars needed to fund the current preschool program. So that's not really a budget concession.

And Branstad has to be careful not to grab a political defeat from the jaws of a big win. He's on the brink of winning a potentially conservative, no-gimmicks budget blueprint with a revamped economic development agency, commercial property tax reforms, etc. But he might also blow it by insisting that all must bow to his so-called mandate. That my-way-or-else approach is not working so well for his fellow GOP governors.  

It seems like way out of this runs through education funding. But that's been the case for several weeks. And yet, the Sitzkrieg continues.

I still think a deal gets done. But a shutdowns is looking much more like a possibility than it did a week ago. 

Apparently, more talks are scheduled today. Behind closed doors, of course.

Here's what I wrote on that subject Sunday:

Our Statehouse heroes are in the midst of a classic “Progress! Gridlock!” shuffle. A budget impasse is keeping our Legislature up well past its bedtime.Parents know that leads to crankiness. Top leaders and Gov. Terry Branstad are periodically meeting behind layers of closed doors, looking for a way out.Sometimes, they emerge smiling after “frank and productive” talks. Deal any day now. No details today.Other times, like Thursday, they flip out. In this case, Republicans breathlessly accused Dems of walking away. Democrats said, did not. GOP said, did too.Some day, there will be a deal. There always is.It will drop from the sky some sleepy afternoon, when one more frank meeting turns out to be productive. It will be drafted into a bill and dropped on lawmakers' desks like a 4-pound church basement casserole. Nobody's exactly sure what's in it. It smells sorta funny. Swallow it fast and clear out. Let the code editors fix the typos.Yep, this is how hundreds of millions of our dollars are divvied up. And at the most critical moment in the process, we are not invited.Truth is, precious few of the public meetings at the Statehouse matter even a fraction as much as the closed sessions between big chieftains slicing up the most important parts of the budget. You can fill a public hearing to the ceiling and shout till they call in troopers, but low talk in a backroom can easily drown that out.Money for our kids' schools, property taxes, a potential rate increase to pay for a nuclear power plant and several other issues still hang in the balance. Maybe you'd like to see how that sausage is being made. Tough darts.It's probably never going to change. And if change were possible, this probably wouldn't be the year.This is the year that the Iowa House magically turned a raccoon bill into a dove hunting bill, so it could be quickly approved without being considered by a pesky open committee. House leaders also decided it was OK to approve partisan resolutions with just a few members present.Lawmakers are still considering making it a crime to film a farm, throwing a massive criminal net over everybody's free speech rights just to catch a few militant animal rights activists. And a bill creating a panel to help citizens enforce open meetings and records laws is likely dead. Branstad says he'd sign it, unless the panel has the power to investigate claims against his office. I wish I was surprised.

Parents know that leads to crankiness. Top leaders and Gov. Terry Branstad are periodically meeting behind layers of closed doors, looking for a way out.

Sometimes, they emerge smiling after “frank and productive” talks. Deal any day now. No details today.

Other times, like Thursday, they flip out. In this case, Republicans breathlessly accused Dems of walking away. Democrats said, did not. GOP said, did too.

Some day, there will be a deal. There always is.

It will drop from the sky some sleepy afternoon, when one more frank meeting turns out to be productive. It will be drafted into a bill and dropped on lawmakers' desks like a 4-pound church basement casserole. Nobody's exactly sure what's in it. It smells sorta funny. Swallow it fast and clear out. Let the code editors fix the typos.

Yep, this is how hundreds of millions of our dollars are divvied up. And at the most critical moment in the process, we are not invited.

Truth is, precious few of the public meetings at the Statehouse matter even a fraction as much as the closed sessions between big chieftains slicing up the most important parts of the budget. You can fill a public hearing to the ceiling and shout till they call in troopers, but low talk in a backroom can easily drown that out.

Money for our kids' schools, property taxes, a potential rate increase to pay for a nuclear power plant and several other issues still hang in the balance. Maybe you'd like to see how that sausage is being made. Tough darts.

It's probably never going to change. And if change were possible, this probably wouldn't be the year.

This is the year that the Iowa House magically turned a raccoon bill into a dove hunting bill, so it could be quickly approved without being considered by a pesky open committee. House leaders also decided it was OK to approve partisan resolutions with just a few members present.

Lawmakers are still considering making it a crime to film a farm, throwing a massive criminal net over everybody's free speech rights just to catch a few militant animal rights activists. And a bill creating a panel to help citizens enforce open meetings and records laws is likely dead. Branstad says he'd sign it, unless the panel has the power to investigate claims against his office. I wish I was surprised.

Our Statehouse heroes will say, worry not, fair residents, this is how it's always been done. Excuse me while I go behind a closed door and flip out.