The Week — Gas Tax momentum, marriage and Deportables!

GAS TAX FEVER. CATCH IT!

'Key lawmakers” say lots of things during a typical legislative session. When they're not being all key and leading and prominent and stuff, they're telling scribblers what's 'likely” to happen.

This week, key lawmakers said a 10-cent gas tax increase is now likely, or at least is likely to be debated in the month we call February. Apparently, all the courageous efforts to use alchemy, twine and bubble gum to create a 'hybrid” raising tens of millions of dollars for road repairs without taxpayers knowing it fell short by a few bucks.

So now we're back to the good old gas tax. It has been one score and six years since the Legislature raised it. Tacking a dime onto the current 21-cent per gallon tax, 19 cents for ethanol blends, 22.5 cents for diesel, would help cover a $215 million annual gap between needed road work and available bucks. A spectrum of groups, from the Farm Bureau and roadbuilders to bankers and truckers, say it's high time to fix our economically vital transportation infrastructure.

According to The Register of Des Moines, a person driving 15,000 miles a year in a vehicle that gets 25 MPG would pay an extra 60 bucks. And its last Iowa Poll says 58 percent of Iowans don't want to.

Iowans for Tax Relief says they shouldn't have to pay more. ITR's own poll shows 77 percent oppose a dime increase.

Seems like it's been a month of Sundays since ITR stood in the center of a big ‘ol legislative scrum. Back in the days when phones were heavy and dumb, Iowans for Tax Relief struck fear into the hearts of Republican lawmakers. Cross ITR, and the group would find and bankroll your next primary opponent.

Since a big leadership shake-up several years ago, the group has lost its mojo. But with the gas tax debate, Iowans for Tax Relief is back. Like leg warmers,

During the last half of 2013 and all of 2014, according to campaign finance filings, Iowans for tax Relief's PAC reported $145,500 in political spending, mostly in the form of contributions to state legislative campaigns. That includes $105,000 to 20 current Republican members of the Iowa House. If I had to bet where a gas tax increase might crash into a brick wall, the GOP House would be a decent choice.

Several GOP representatives received donations of $5,000 on up. The group donated $15,000 to House Speaker Kraig Paulsen's campaign committee. My brand new state Rep. Ken Rizer, R-Cedar Rapids, received $12,500, tops among rank-and-filers.

The PAC had $234,000 left in the bank as of its filing this month.

So ITR's still got skills. And even more impressive than its sizable donations are the long list of small donors the group still attracts. It's true that ITR received more than $200,000 from a trio of Muscatine-based trusts bankrolled by the group's founder, David Stanley, and his wife Jean Stanley. But it's that list of folks giving $100 on down who will be bugging lawmakers.

Still, ITR's spending pales in comparison to, say, the PAC run by the Associated General Contractors of Iowa, which favors a gas tax increase. Asphalt isn't all the road-builders spread around.

The contractors' political donations in 2014 are in the neighborhood of $400,000. The group left nary a hand empty, with lots of gifts on both sides of the aisle. That includes $138,500 in donation to 35 Republicans serving in the House. Paulsen and Majority Leader Linda Upmeyer each got $11,000.

It's notable that $48,500 went to 10 GOP members of the House Transportation Committee, including $10,000 for its chair, Rep. Josh Byrnes, R-Osage, who has been vocal in his support of a gas tax increase. Iowans for Tax Relief contributed to just two committee members.

What does this mean? The stakes are high. It's crazy how much money gets spent winning a part-time job. I have too much time on my hands.

Or maybe not much.

The case for new road-fixing bucks is clear and compelling. But the unpopularity of that medicine also is understandable. The Register's last Iowa Poll on the issue found 58 percent opposed. People working harder and still not getting decent raises, or any raises, are in no mood to pay more for one more damn thing.

Sure, gasoline prices are low. But nobody believes it's permanent.

So, despite the fact I am no key lawmaker, I don't think a gas tax increase will pass. Mainly because it's unpopular, and that still matters in politics.

I'm not yet convinced Senate Republicans will vote with Democrats to pass it. Without GOP votes, Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal, D-Council Bluffs, won't throw his folks into the volcano.

And I can't yet visualize House Speaker Kraig Paulsen presiding over a vote to raise taxes. How many among 57 House Republicans will join with Democrats to raise the tax? Will it be enough to convince Paulsen and Majority Leader Linda Upmeyer to roll down that road?

Surely, the governor will ride in and lead the Charge of the Gas Tax Brigade! Yep.

If any of those factors change, I'll change my forecast.

MARRIAGE AIN'T WHAT IT USED TO BE

Alert blogger John Deeth notes that a mere 12 House Republicans have signed on to co-sponsor this year's constitutional amendment banning same-sex marriage. That's down from 56 GOP co-sponsors back in 2011.

More may join the fight, knowing that this time, their side won't win. Again. The Senate was left in Democratic hands for the third election since the Iowa Supreme Court struck down Iowa's statutory ban on same-sex unions. So even if a ban gets a House vote, it dies in the Senate.

It's one more sign that the Iowa marriage debate is pretty much over. It's been legal for going on six years. The sky remains in place. And with the U.S. Supreme Court taking on the issue this year, state sideshows are a waste of time.

That doesn't mean your local crop of GOP caucus hopefuls won't be talking about it down at the local Pizza Ranch. Rick Santorum, Mike Huckabee, etc., can't resist serving a piping hot wedge of moral decay.

At the other end of the Republican presidential spectrum stands former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, conspicuous skipper of the Steve King 'Freedom Summit.” Bush made news this week by hiring longtime Iowa Republican strategist Dave Kochel, Mitt Romney's top Iowa guy in 2008 and 2012.

Back in 2013, Kochel appeared at an event sponsored by Iowa Republicans for Freedom, a group led by former state Sen. Jeff Angelo that supports marriage equality. Also in attendance was former top George W. Bush strategist and Republican National Committee Chairman Ken Mehlman, who is gay.

From a news release following the event:

'Support for the freedom to marry is emerging as a mainstream position in the Republican Party. If we are to be the party of principles and values, isn't our first obligation to the principle of freedom, and the value of individual liberty?” said Kochel. 'The Republican Party must think big, be big, welcome new voters, and earn the trust and support of a much broader coalition, or be doomed to shrink into irrelevance.”

Just this month, as Florida began issuing marriage licenses to same-sex couples in the wake of a court ruling, Bush had this to say:

'We live in a democracy, and regardless of our disagreements, we have to respect the rule of law,” Bush said in a statement first reported by The Miami Herald and the New York Times and also shared with POLITICO. 'I hope that we can also show respect for the good people on all sides of the gay and lesbian marriage issue - including couples making lifetime commitments to each other who are seeking greater legal protections and those of us who believe marriage is a sacrament and want to safeguard religious liberty.”

Bush opposed gay marriage as governor. And if you view this as a slam-dunk, long-overdue extension of basic civil rights, his please-everyone statement is all kinds of squishy. Also, if you're too skittish to show up and say this kind of stuff at a Freedom Summit in Iowa filled with righteous culture warriors, what good is it? Backbone, already.

Still, it's a far sight better than what we normally hear from would- be GOP leaders of the free world, who flock to freedom summits, who would restrict the freedom to marry. Good signs folks, good signs. Progress.

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