Points in Transition: Iowa vs. Nebraska rematch

Sunday's game at Carver-Hawkeye Arena serves as the Iowa men's basketball team's third rematch of the Big Ten season as Nebraska comes to Iowa City for a Super Bowl Sunday meeting at 1 p.m. Last time around, it took double-overtime for the Huskers to take the win. The Hawkeyes are playing good basketball, and could very well get star guard Peter Jok back to boot.

For each Big Ten game this season, we'll look at key players, strengths and weaknesses for both teams and the key to winning for both sides. Here's a breakdown of the matchup between Iowa and Nebraska:

Key player

Iowa: Isaiah Moss, guard — Last time out, he had his best half of basketball all season — and that stands to date. He kept the Hawkeyes in that game before Jok took over. However, between then and the Rutgers win Tuesday, Moss didn't have a game in double-digit points, and hasn't played more than 20 minutes since. With Jok's status up in the air, his play will have to at least be similar to what it was on Jan. 5 to both stop and offset the Husker combo of Glynn Watson and Tai Webster.

Nebraska: Glynn Watson Jr., guard — Tai Webster understandably gets a bulk of the attention for Nebraska as its leading scorer, but Watson was the one who really torched Iowa in the first meeting. Watson went for 34 points on 11 of 18 shooting and had four assists, three steals and three rebounds. His PER (player efficiency rating) for that game was an absurd 33 — for reference, Jok also had 34 points, but his PER was 10 points lower at 23. He's quick, sure, but smart with his attacks and how he uses his 6-foot frame to get to the rim.

Strengths

Iowa: It's not rocket science to figure out that when the ball is static on offense, it's much easier for the defense to succeed and the offense to struggle. When Iowa has moved the ball well, the offense has come alive, and the last two games are clear indicators.

The key, though, has been that the Hawkeyes haven't just moved the ball in back-to-back wins; they've done it with effectiveness and — at least more so than in the previous few weeks — with care. Iowa had 24 assists on 30 made shots Tuesday against Rutgers. That kind of efficiency will keep them in games against anyone.

Post entry passing and passing out of the post led to baskets. Easy baskets came from their regular motion and set plays. Everything looked easier as the ball moved quickly, and the results backed that up.

Nebraska: The Huskers have had a rough go of it recently, but a few things have stuck with them throughout a five-game losing streak and in an 83-80 win against Purdue the other night. They still get a lot from Webster and Watson, but got an extra lift from them and a few others in the absence of Ed Morrow Jr., who is out injured.

Nebraska still ranks second in offensive rebounds in the Big Ten, and second in steals, and it's been those two things that have kept them in games — and given them a shot to win every one of those five straight losses. It was 17 second-chance points on 15 offensive rebounds that helped put the Huskers over the top against the Boilermakers.

The other key: 39 bench points against Purdue. Without Morrow, an effective bench is vital for this team.

Weaknesses

Iowa: In the last two wins, Iowa's weaknesses have been much harder to find — but yes, they're still there. The Hawkeyes got beat up on the boards against Rutgers, thanks in part to a ton of missed Scarlet Knights shots, but still didn't clean up like they should've. That's less of a factor when they're shooting and sharing the ball like they did, but only if that's the case.

The Hawkeyes also rank 237th in the nation in free throw shooting with 67.7 percent. The national average, according to KenPom, is 69.9. Coach Fran McCaffery said Monday he doesn't worry about free throw shooting, but it has a tangible effect on close games. At Illinois, Iowa shot 7 of 16 from the line and lost by 12 — as one example.

Nebraska: The Huskers have seen a ton of close games this season — they have the lowest scoring margin in the Big Ten at 0.1 — but what before was a strength has gone the other way. Nebraska won four straight games from the end of conference play through a 3-0 start by five or fewer points, including that 93-90 double-overtime win against Iowa.

During the ensuing five-game losing streak, the Huskers lost the three middle games by six or less — including one-point losses to Ohio State and Rutgers.

Turnovers have hurt them in that process, and for much of the season, with the second lowest assist-to-turnover ratio in the Big Ten. With the Hawkeyes recently having a resurgence in efficiency in transition and forcing turnovers, that could play a big factor in what likely will be another close game.

Iowa wins if …

the Hawkeyes share the ball with the same efficiency they have been, regardless of whether or not Peter Jok returns. Iowa is good enough to beat Nebraska with or without Jok, but if he does return, the ball can't stop with him as it did right before he took a seat. He's been in there and shared the ball as well as anyone, so they're definitely capable. Keeping up what has been a hit-on-all-eight-cylinders offense is vital.

Nebraska wins if …

Webster and Watson are allowed to have the kind of night they did a month ago and the Huskers don't let the Hawkeyes capitalize in transition or off turnovers. The Huskers got a big win at home against Purdue, but that only continues if the things that got them that win — just nine turnovers, 32 points in the paint and 39 bench points — carry over as well.

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