Heat has helped prevent a 2008-scale flood in a wet summer

Residents are mopping up across the region as emergency personnel keep a wary eye on a sultry, restless atmosphere.

“The ground is really saturated and there's just no place for it to go,” said Fayette County Emergency Management Coordinator Randy Frank. “We're hoping we don't have to be in a position where we have to evacuate, but we want people to be ready.

“Everything depends on where the rain falls tonight,” said Linda Engebretson, meteorologist at the National Weather Service office in Davenport.

“We've still got one more night tonight where someone's getting a lot more rain,” State Climatologist Harry Hillaker said this afternoon.

By 2 p.m., Engebretson said, a weather pattern was starting to form.

“We're looking at the axis of heavy rainfall to move a little bit south of there, to the Highway 30 corridor,” she said. “Saturday daytime looks a bit interesting yet.”

That could bring relief to Northeast Iowans bracing for near-record river crests Saturday, but flooding to areas south of Cedar Rapids, although major flooding isn't predicted.

In other words, just another day in Eastern Iowa's Monsoon Summer.

“In a couple days, they've got their whole month's worth of rainfall for July,” Engebretson said of Oelwein, where 9.9 inches fell in the 24 hours through 7 a.m., and surrounding communities.

“The pattern has been that we get the storms coming over the same area again and again,” Engebretson said. “We've been sitting in the storm track, which has made it a wet summer.”

How wet?

“If we ended today and not got anymore rain we'd be number 10? of 138 years, Hillaker said. “Even below-normal rainfall through the end of August would get it up to number 3.”

With a week to go, it's already the 15th-wettest July. But Fayette, Buchanan, Clayton, and Delaware counties – the epicenter of last night's deluge – aren't even the wettest.

“The wettest area right now would be south-central Iowa centered on Wayne and Appanoose counties,” Hillaker said.

That's because that region has seen consistent, if not record-breaking, rains all summer long, while Eastern Iowa weathered a series of remarkable but well-timed downpours, with a week or so of relatively dry weather between.

“We did have a full week where virtually the whole state didn't get any rain,” roughly July 8 through 16, Hillaker said. “If we didn't have that we'd be in a heck of a mess.”

The culprit: a hot, humid high-pressure area centered over the southeastern U.S. Hillaker said that's a typical of summertime weather, but this year it's edged a bit northwest.

“We're kind of on the fringe of that, but there's where the rain tends to be,” Hillaker said.

Then, “we get a surge of moisture up here from the Gulf, and the pattern turns so the upper-level winds are more westerly,” said Engebretson. “So the storms aren't moving to the south like we'd expect.”

That makes it warmer than most wet Iowa summers, but that may be preventing a 2008-scale disaster.

“We may feel more miserable, but it's helping us out with more evaporation between events,” said Hillaker.

High temperatures at the height of the growing season can combine to take 0.3 to 0.5 inch of moisture out of the soil per day, according to Hillaker.

Of course, those must be dry days, and we may be in for a few after Saturday's showers.

“There's still a lot of drying capacity there despite its being very miserable in humid terms,” said Hillaker. “We've got to kind of wait and see what happens next week where that boundary sets up again.”

Residents are mopping up across the region as emergency personnel keep a wary eye on a sultry, restless atmosphere.

“The ground is really saturated and there's just no place for it to go,” said Fayette County Emergency Management Coordinator Randy Frank. “We're hoping we don't have to be in a position where we have to evacuate, but we want people to be ready.”

“Everything depends on  where the rain falls tonight,” said Linda  Engebretson, meteorologist at the National Weather Service office in Davenport.

“We've still got one more night tonight where someone's getting a lot more rain,” State Climatologist Harry Hillaker said this afternoon.

By 2 p.m., Engebretson said, a weather pattern was starting to form.

“We're looking at the axis of heavy rainfall to move a little bit south of there, to the Highway 30 corridor,” she said. “Saturday daytime looks a bit interesting yet.”

That could bring relief to Northeast Iowans bracing for near-record river crests Saturday, but flooding to areas south of Cedar Rapids, although major flooding isn't predicted.

In other words, just another day in Eastern Iowa's Monsoon Summer.

“In a couple days, they've got their whole month's worth of rainfall for July,” Engebretson said of Oelwein, where 9.9 inches fell in the 24 hours through 7 a.m., and surrounding communities.

“The pattern has been that we get the storms coming over the same area again  and again,” Engebretson said. “We've been sitting in the storm track, which has made it a wet summer.”

How wet?

“If we ended today and not got anymore rain we'd be number 10? of 138 years, Hillaker said. “Even below-normal rainfall through the end of August would get it up to number 3.”

With a week to go, it's already the 15th-wettest July. But Fayette, Buchanan, Clayton, and Delaware counties – the epicenter of last night's deluge – aren't even the wettest.

“The wettest area right now would be south-central Iowa centered on Wayne and Appanoose counties,” Hillaker said.

That's because that region has seen consistent, if not record-breaking, rains all summer long, while Eastern Iowa weathered a series of remarkable but well-timed downpours, with a week or so of relatively dry weather between.

“We did have a full week where virtually the whole state didn't get any rain,” roughly July 8 through 16, Hillaker said. “If we didn't have that we'd be in  a heck of a mess.”

The culprit: a hot, humid high-pressure area centered over the southeastern U.S. Hillaker said that's a typical of summertime weather, but this year it's edged a bit northwest.

“We're kind of on the fringe of that, but there's where the rain tends to be,” Hillaker said.

Then, “we get a surge of moisture up here from the Gulf, and the pattern turns so the upper-level winds are more westerly,” said Engebretson. “So the storms aren't moving to the south like we'd expect.”

That makes it warmer than most wet Iowa summers, but that may be preventing a 2008-scale disaster.

“We may feel more miserable, but it's helping us out with more evaporation between events,” said Hillaker.

High temperatures at the height of the growing season can combine to take 0.3 to 0.5 inch of moisture out of the soil per day, according to Hillaker.

Of course, those must be dry days, and we may be in for a few after Saturday's showers.

“There's still a lot of drying capacity there despite its being very miserable in humid terms,” said Hillaker. “We've got to kind of wait and see what happens next week where that boundary sets up again.”