A gray Election Day arrives

Election Day is here. Full of good cheer, at least until the votes get counted.

At 8:15, I was voter 33 at the Lutheran Church of the Resurrection in Marion. I've hit the do your civic duty lecture thing in my last couple of columns. Now, you're on your own.

If you have voted, bully for you. If not, you've got until 8 p.m.

A reader called this morning to tell me that she called her three kids, ages 33-40, local business-owners to boot, on Monday and reminded them to vote today. She said they're politically minded, and always vote in general elections.

But, in this case, she said none of them were even aware that an election was happening.

Know it or not, It is, indeed, happening.

I guess I can try the prediction thing. That's always difficult within the context of a low-turnout city election. It all depends on who turns out, or doesn't bother.

So it's dangerous. But I I'll give it a shot, with a caveats chaser.

I think Cedar Rapids Mayor Ron Corbett will win a second term . It wouldn't shock me if his margin looks a little skimpy, considering his opponent has a grasp on city issues sort of like I have a grasp of nanobiotechnology. Allthough I also believe that the City Council Corbett presides over will include multiple new faces.

Incumbents Chuck Swore and Pat Shey seem to be the most vulnerable. Swore's competition in the at-large race, where his seat and a vacant seat are up for grabs, is remarkably strong. I think Ralph Russell, Anthony Brown, Carletta Knox-Seymour and Susie Weinacht each have a shot at winning a seat. Former Council member Jerry McGrane is well-known. But it's the sort of race that could end up in a December runoff.

Rick Smith explains:

As for the local-option sales tax extension, your guess is as good as mine. I know the mayor has polling that shows decent support, but he had similar polling in 2011 when a 20-year extension for streets and flood protection narrowly failed. This time, it's 10 years for street projects. And without any independent polling, it's impossible to get a sense of what might happen.

Most voters probably agree that the city's streets are in bad shape and need attention. But most voters won't show up to vote. And after watching two previous extension efforts fail, and the school district's physical plant and equipment levy increase get trounced in September, I don't have a lot of confidence in the passage chances for any local tax measure.

In those two previous local-option defeats, voters seemed to cling very tightly to multiple reasons for voting no – the hotel purchase, closing second avenue, dislike for downtown, “trust” issues, etc., -- in the face of a pretty compelling case that the penny tax was needed to address significant needs – fixing streets, protecting the city from a watery disaster.

A re-run wouldn't shock me, but neither would a victory. I think it will be close, although I thought the casino vote would be close. It was a blowout.

Cedar Rapids may, in the end, get a decidedly mixed Election Day message.

It's entirely possible that an incumbent mayor gets easily re-elected and pro-LOST candidates win council seats at the same time the tax extension gets whacked. Or the tax extension passes and some incumbents who strongly backed it get tossed.

Voters can be tricky and mysterious. Local government watchers may see all of these issues and candidates tied together, but voters often don't think of things that way. Unless someone wants to swiftly organize some exit polling, we'll only be able to guess.

So what happens tomorrow?

Well, hopefully, life goes on.

Some candidates have speculated that, with big recovery decisions done, that the next council will fade back to its pre-flood, part-time position, the vision-setter for the manager running the show.

Maybe, but I have my doubts, even with some new faces. Cedar Rapids has had an assertive City Council over the last four years. After the flood, that was by necessity. Now, it's a preference, especially for the mayor and his core allies. And since the council largely shares the vision of City Manager Jeff Pomeranz, I doubt much changes. Unless today's vote yields some very big surprises.

The issues may not be as big, granted, but I don't think the next council is headed for the sidelines.

We'll see what happens in ten hours or so.