Iowa-Michigan State breakdown

1. Backcourt.

Guards for Iowa and Michigan State perform in similar ways when it comes to taking care of the ball, playing defense, passing effectively and getting others involved. Iowa ranks sixth in turnover margin at 2.2, while Michigan State is 12th at minus-0.5. Michigan State point guard Travis Trice leads the Big Ten in assist-to-turnover ratio at 3.8. Trice has 90 assists and only 24 turnovers along with 18 steals. Wing Denzel Valentine posts 64 assists and 42 turnovers and backup point guard Lourawls 'Tum Tum” Nairn Jr. has 43 assists and 16 turnovers. Shooting guard Bryn Forbes has 20 assists but 24 turnovers. Their Iowa backcourt counterparts - Mike Gesell, Peter Jok, Anthony Clemmons, Josh Oglesby - post 127 assists and 70 turnovers.

But the Spartans have a clear advantage in shooting and scoring. Both Valentine and Trice average more than 13 points a game. Among Big Ten players, Valentine ranks third in 3-point percentage (46.3) and Forbes ranks sixth (45.2). Forbes has 33 3-pointers, while Trice has 32. The Spartans are second in 3-point percentage (40.1) and lead the Big Ten in 3-point defense.

'The thing about him is he can also score,” Iowa Coach Fran McCaffery said of Trice. 'He can shoot the ball. He's a late-game shot maker. So, yeah, his role this year, he's the guy. He's a senior. I think he welcomes that.

'But he's been pretty good his entire career there, getting them into their stuff, making 3s, not turning the ball over.”

Clemmons worked out against all the Spartan guards during the summer. He was a high school teammate of Forbes and Valentine at Lansing Sexton. He also competed against Trice, who is known as an on-court talker.

'From my experience in playing him in one-on-one games, he's very shifty,” Clemmons said. 'Great scorer, great pump-fake guy. He's a guy that can look to get people involved but also another guy that can get your for 20, 25. He's a guy you can't underestimate. You've got to stay down on him at all times, he's got a good hesitation, he's got a good spin move. He's got everything. He's a great player.”

Iowa's perimeter shooting is its primary issue. The Hawkeyes rank 12th in 3-point shooting at 30.8 percent. Oglesby and Jok have nice 3-point strokes but neither have a shooting percentage above 30 although Oglesby has a track record of success. Clemmons and Gesell barely shoot above 30 percent from 3-point range. The Hawkeyes are diligent defending along the 3-point line, ranking fourth in the Big Ten at 29.1 percent.

ADVANTAGE: Michigan State

2. Frontcourt.

Iowa's top two scorers in Aaron White and Jarrod Uthoff provide one of the Big Ten's top forward tandems. White already holds the school record for free throws and averages 16.5 points a game. White ranks eighth in the Big Ten in scoring, third in rebounding, sixth in free-throw percentage and 15th in field-goal percentage. Uthoff, the Big Ten's current basketball player of the week, has a diverse skill set. He leads Iowa in 3-pointers and ranks 14th among Big Ten players. He's an inside-outside threat who ranks 11th in blocked shots (1.8), 11th in rebounding (6.7) and 28th in scoring (11.4). He has hit 7 of his last 14 3-point attempts.

Iowa's center tandem of Gabe Olaseni and Adam Woodbury is formidable. Olaseni scored a career high 18 points in a win against Nebraska. He's eighth in Big Ten free-throw percentage at 84.6 and hit 18 in a row before a late miss on Monday. Olaseni (9.1 points per game) also is third in Big Ten blocked shots with 2.1 a game. Woodbury is tied for 20th in rebounds per game (5.6) and averages 6.7 points.

Olaseni averages nearly the same minutes as Woodbury and there's only two rebounds of separation between the two. But McCaffery likes bringing Olaseni off the bench.

'The only reason to start him is when I felt like it would be a reward for how well he's playing,” McCaffery said. 'Any time you make a change in the starting lineup, at least the way I look at it, it's got to benefit both people: Is it good for Woody, Gabe, and ultimately for our team?

'When Gabe comes off the bench and gets 18 points, it's easy to say he should be starting. Woody's contribution is more at the other end of the floor. He's a communicator on defense. He's a high-level rebounder, high-level defender. So his value is every bit as important to our team, just in a different way.”

Michigan State's Branden Dawson is one of the nation's best and most versatile power forwards. He leads the Big Ten in rebounding (9.1) and is 13th in steals (1.4). He suffered a left wrist injury against Eastern Michigan and missed two games before playing in both Big Ten games this year. He was tremendous against Indiana, scoring 14 points and grabbing 13 rebounds. He added two assists, two blocks and two steals.

'Extreme athletic,” Iowa's Aaron White said. 'Quick off the floor, doesn't need to gather to get 12 feet off the ground. Grabs rebounds out of his area extremely well. He's improved offensively. I think he's got a good step-back, a good pull-up jumper. It's going to fun playing against him. I love playing against him. Good challenge for both of us. He's a great player and would be a good match-up for us.”

A pair of talented Michigan State freshmen come off the bench and could play key roles. Marvin Clark Jr. has started five games and averages 6.9 points a game. He's scored in double figures seven times, and MSU has won all seven. Javon Bess is among the league's most talented young players although he missed the first 10 games because of a foot injury.

The Spartans originally started Matt Costello (6-9) in the post but now bring him off the bench. Sophomore Gavin Schilling (6-9) leads the Big Ten in field-goal percentage (72.3 percent) and Costello is third (62.3). They each hover around 19 minutes a game. Woodbury's defense is vital for Iowa in challenging those two.

The teams are ranked 1-2 among Big Ten schools in rebounds per game. Michigan State leads the Big Ten in rebounding margin (8.3), while Iowa is sixth (4.2) but the Hawkeyes pace the league in offensive rebounds (13.5). All four of Iowa's primary posts have at least 30 offensive rebounds.

ADVANTAGE: IOWA

3. Intangibles/other.

Iowa has lost eight games in a row to the Spartans, many of which were excruciating. There was the 12-point lead in Chicago that evaporated at the 2013 Big Ten Tournament that cost the Hawkeyes an NCAA tournament berth. There was last year's overtime loss at Carver-Hawkeye Arena. Iowa hasn't won in East Lansing since 1993, but three of the losses in this span have taken place there.

But merely suggesting that Iowa is due to beat MSU overlooks the way those losses unfolded. At home and in the United Center, Iowa held significant leads, yet Michigan State battled and battled. The Spartans' physical play (and inconsistent officiating in Chicago) caused breakdowns for the Hawkeyes. They failed to match MSU's toughness, and it cost them repeatedly.

'That's Michigan State basketball,” Clemmons said. 'That's Big Ten basketball. Everyone signs up, that plays in the Big Ten, to play physical play the way they play. Michigan State, they're one of the best programs in the country. That's what you've got to expect when you head up against that team.”

Iowa's defensive consistency and persistence is much better this year. That was the area that McCaffery identified as vital toward improving on last year's NCAA tournament squad. Iowa ranks second in the Big Ten in points allowed at 59.3, and MSU is third at 60.1. Nobody questions Michigan State's defense, this year or any other year.

If it comes down to free throws, Iowa ranks No. 1 in the Big Ten at 77.7 percent. Michigan State is last (14th) at 63.3 percent. That could be critical, especially with how Iowa likes to pound the ball inside with White and Olaseni.

ADVANTAGE: IOWA

KEY MATCHUP

Dawson vs. White.

As two of the top senior power forwards in the country, this match-up will be worth the price of admission alone. Dawson, as previously mentioned, leads the Big Ten in rebounding (9.1) and scores 10.9 points a game. White averages 16.5 points and 7.4 rebounds. He's one of the nation's best free-throw shooters (86.3 percent) and in volume (101 makes, 117 attempts. Dawson, conversely, struggles from the line, making just 11 of 28 (39.3 percent).

KEY STATISTICS

SCORING/OPP:

Iowa 70.7/59.3; MSU 74.1/60.1

FG%/OPP FG%:

Iowa 40.9/37.8; MSU 47.9/36.8

3PT%/OPP 3PT%:

Iowa 30.8/29.1; MSU 40.1/27.3

FT%:

Iowa 77.7; MSU 63.3

LIKELY STARTERS

Iowa:

G Mike Gesell (6-2); G Peter Jok (6-6); F Jarrod Uthoff (6-9); F Aaron White (6-9); C Adam Woodbury (7-1)

Michigan State:

G Travis Trice (6-0); G Bryn Forbes (6-3); G Denzel Valentine (6-5) F Branden Dawson 6-6; C Gavin Schilling (6-9)

KEY RESERVES

Iowa

: C Gabe Olaseni (6-10); G Anthony Clemmons (6-2); G Josh Oglesby (6-6); G Trey Dickerson (6-1); G Brady Ellingson (6-4); F Dominique Uhl (6-9)

Michigan State:

G Lourawls 'Tum Tum” Nairn Jr. (5-10); G Alvin Ellis III (6-4); F Javon Bess (6-5); C Matt Costello (6-9); F Marvin Clark Jr. (6-6)

BOTTOM LINE

This game comes down to persistence. Because the Carver-Hawkeye Arena environment will be raucous with the home-court advantage, I expect Iowa - as in past years - to take a lead of 8-to-12 points at some point in the first half. But Michigan State will keep pounding at Iowa with intense, physical defense and strong 3-point shooting. The Spartans will draw close and take the lead, probably early in the second half. Iowa's currently and formerly ranked opponents have outscored the Hawkeyes 76-22 from halftime through the first media timeout this year. Michigan State fits into that category.

After MSU's likely run, then it's about winning 50-50 balls off the glass, on the floor, tie-ups near the 3-point line, taking charges. Can Iowa sustain mental toughness, fight on every possession and not give up easy baskets? Can the Hawkeyes go toe-to-toe with the Spartans for 40 minutes? Although Iowa has clear deficiencies (which will be exposed in the coming games), I think tonight might be the night for the Hawkeyes.

PREDICTION: Iowa 68-63

l Comments: (319) 339-3169; scott.dochterman@thegazette.com