Trump, Cruz neck-and-neck in Iowa in new statewide polls

CEDAR RAPIDS - Powered by the support of self-identified evangelicals and Tea Party Republicans, Donald Trump and Ted Cruz have the backing of more than half of likely Iowa GOP caucusgoers, according to a new Quinnipiac University Poll.

Trump leads with 28 percent of likely caucusgoers seven weeks before Iowa's first-in-the-nation precinct caucuses to 27 percent for Texas Sen. Cruz.

However, in a Loras College Poll also released Monday, the order was reversed with Cruz polling 29.7 percent and Trump 23.4 percent.

Loras College Poll Director Christopher Budzisz speculated that Cruz's surge from 6.2 percent in October was helped by the endorsements of Iowa U.S. Rep. Steve King and The Family Leader President Bob Vander Plaats - 'well-known and influential voices within the social conservative and evangelical base here in Iowa.

'It is this base which can deliver a victory or defeat on caucus night,” he said.

Which candidate prevails likely will be determined by who has the best turnout operation - 'a subject about which everyone likes to speculate but is not measurable until caucus night,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

Loras found evangelicals, who were 52.7 percent of the sample, split their votes 36.5 percent for Cruz and 20.5 percent for Trump. Among the 76.2 percent of GOP voters who considered themselves 'conservative,” Cruz led Trump at 27.7 percent to 26.8 percent.

In the Quinnipiac poll, Cruz had the backing of 40 percent of those who said they were 'very conservative,” 34 percent of evangelicals and 45 percent of Tea Party Republicans. Trump had the support of 29 of 'very conservative” caucusgoers, 24 percent of evangelicals and 26 percent of Tea Party Republicans.

A good sign for Cruz, Brown said, is that he's viewed more favorably than Trump, Brown said. Among those polled, 30 percent said they 'would definitely not support Trump.”

Rubio and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson finished with 14 percent and 10 percent, respectively, with no one else above 5 percent, according to the Quinnipiac poll of 874 likely Republican caucusgoers - 73 percent who said they have attended caucuses in the past - between Dec. 4 and 13 with live interviewers calling landlines and cellphones. The margin of error is 3.3 percent.

They were third and fourth with 10.8 and 10.6 percent in the Loras poll, of 449 likely GOP caucusgoers contacted by landlines and cellphones from between Dec. 7-10. The margin of error was 4.4 percent.

Only 3 percent remain undecided, but 53 percent told Quinnipiac they could change their mind before the Feb. 1 caucuses.

The most recent poll found two significant changes in Carson's continued slide and voters' top concern.

Carson led the Q-Poll by 8 percentage points in October, but now is at 10 percent, which equals his support in late June. Loras found Carson's support is about one-third of the 30.6 percent support he had in October when he led Trump by 12 percentage points.

His collapse may have something to do with 30 percent of GOP voters now identifying terrorism as their most important issue. That replaces jobs and the economy - 21 percent - with 13 percent saying foreign policy and 11 percent citing immigration.

The Loras poll also found that as 'foreign policy emerged as a more prominent part of the campaign, so did the questions about Dr. Carson's foreign policy preparedness,” said Budzisz. 'Coupled with a successful challenge for the evangelical and social conservative base by Sen. Cruz, it is no surprise to see Dr. Carson's support diminish.”

Cruz topped Trump 27 percent to 19 percent on foreign policy, in the Quinnipiac poll, but by 33 percent to 24 percent they said Trump would be better than Cruz to handle terrorism. By a 43 percent to 21 percent margin, likely caucusgoers said Trump was better than Cruz on immigration.

Half of those polled by Quinnipiac said homegrown jihadists pose a greater threat to the U.S. while 25 percent most see a threat from Syrian refugees and 17 percent most fear radicalized foreign visitors.

Despite the dominance of Trump and Cruz, it was Rubio who was seen as having the best chance to win the general election, according to 66 percent of those polled by Quinnipiac, while 65 and 54 percent, respectively, said Cruz and Trump have a good chance of winning.

For more on the polls, visit www.quinnipiac.edu.polling and http://loras.edu/poll.