CR casino drive continues, but the map is full of dead ends

So in the great cosmic debate over when, precisely, is the right time to hold 'em or fold 'em, backers of a Cedar Rapids casino are holding, and waiting.

Cedar Rapids Mayor Ron Corbett made a splash last week by telling The Gazette's Rick Smith that the community's drive to put a casino on vacant land downtown isn't over, despite a 4-1 vote by the Racing and Gaming Commission last month denying a state license.

He told me the same thing Thursday afternoon. The 2013 referendum giving a green light for gambling in Linn County remains in effect for seven more years. There are still possibilities to be explored and discovered. He's hearing from lots of folks who think we got a raw, fishy deal, so we shouldn't give up. And there have been plenty of moments in the city's recent history when it looked like all was lost. Then it turned out it wasn't.

'The community certainly has been very supportive of this project from day one. So I'm trying to keep a community discussion going,” Corbett said.

'I hear daily from people on this. They really kinda feel we got screwed on this one. Something doesn't feel right, and don't give up,” the mayor said.

So far be it from me to declare the casino dead. I might, instead, tell you it's gone to live on a nice farm, or that nothing's really dead as long as we have nice memories.

Sorry. I just hate to be the bearer of bad news.

Let me put it this way. Imagine the casino proposal sitting atop a giant flow chart that includes all the tangles, twists and turns, the highways, dirt roads and dead ends its prospects could take in the months and years ahead. And at the bottom there are maybe 100 outcomes. Ninety-nine are 'no way.” Just one says 'yes.” And that might just be overly optimistic.

POSSIBLE PATHWAYS?

What does the path to that 'yes” box look like? No clue. But I'm betting there will be a rickety rope bridge over a river of lava at some point. Can't be sure.

Some have talked of a lawsuit challenging the licensing decision in court, arguing that the Iowa Code chapter governing the commission doesn't mention anything about protecting existing casinos from competition. True enough.

But the code is like a shiny sports car. Pop the hood, and you'll find all of the administrative rules that make that code run. And in the case of the commission, its administrative rules set out licensing criteria that include considering how a new casino would affect existing ones.

You can make a good case that the commission overemphasized that portion of its criteria, but I doubt you can make a case that it somehow acted unlawfully. I think that path leads to 'no way.”

There's talk of a Meskwaki tribal casino here. I must admit I have yet to dig into the process that must be followed to put such a facility on land that's not contiguous with tribal lands. But I doubt it's any easier or shorter than the state licensing process we just witnessed. For one thing, the federal government is involved. Cedar Crossing investors explored this possibility earlier, but couldn't make it work. I think this path, too, leads to a no.

Iowa's gambling market might change, prompting commissioners to abandon their fading cornfield casinos in favor of urban markets. I think, actually, that will happen. But it could take many years, maybe even decades, for market forces to drive regulatory change.

Maybe the commission changes. Next year, two members' terms are up. Trouble is, one is Delores Mertz, the lone member who backed Cedar Rapids. Even if Kristine Kramer of New Hampton is replaced by a more sympathetic soul, the vote still would be 3-2 against.

Perhaps we could take another stab at the commission with a revamped plan, this time offering up a smoke-free Blue Zones health casino. Such a plan might pick up some unlikely allies, such as groups that want to repeal the casino loophole in Iowa's public smoking ban.

But it would still face strong opposition from the existing casino cartel, and it's unclear whether a health casino would still be a ravenous revenue cannibal. Calling it Las Vegan might help.

other long shots

We could get a new governor. Democratic hopeful Jack Hatch has expressed strong support for the Cedar Rapids casino. But his chances of beating five-term incumbent Gov. Terry Branstad remain slim. And a governor's ability to sway a licensing decision is limited. Just ask Gov. Chet Culver, who favored licenses for Fort Dodge, Ottumwa and Tama. He went 0-for-3.

The most intriguing path runs through the Iowa Legislature, where Corbett has some experience. But it's also a long shot.

The Legislature has never directed the commission to issue a license. Opposition to setting such a precedent would be broad and strong, including a coalition of casino-town lawmakers, legislators who oppose gambling and members who think gambling is OK, but we have plenty.

Maybe, instead of a legislative license, you seek changes in licensing criteria that favors more competition and less protectionism.

WHAT CASINOS WANT ...

The biggest obstacle to any action is the casino cartel, which has a remarkable legislative track record of getting what it wants and stopping what it opposes. That doesn't mean a deal can't be made. It just has to include something casinos want.

How about Cedar Rapids gets a casino, and the cartel gets a tax cut? Or maybe lawmakers legalize sports betting at casinos, or give licensed operators control of future Internet gaming in the state? Something that lets everyone walk away happy, pockets jingling.

Trouble is, Cedar Rapids doesn't have much leverage. The status quo is highly profitable. That makes putting together an already difficult deal even tougher. Opposition to expansion would be fierce. It's also highly unlikely that Branstad would sign it. Hatch? More likely.

Then there's the other big question. How long do we do this?

If backers want to see what happens in November and take their case to lawmakers next year, more power to them. But at some point, if nothing much changes, tenacity is going to look more and more like an inability to acknowledge reality.

That's some prime land sitting empty in the center of the city. It would be a great spot for a lot of things. A casino, sure, but maybe something else. The Creative Corridor probably has ideas. Readers already have shared many.

I'd hate to see it sit vacant for years, symbolizing both a failure by regulators to approve a great project and the failure of its backers to move on.

l Comments: todd.dorman@thegazette.com or (319) 398-8262