Conference realignment may trigger end of current BCS, not NCAA

The current wave of conference realignment has many uninformed, big-city commentators speculating that college sports will turn into four 16-school super conferences that will end the NCAA.

That's hardly the case. The NCAA is much bigger than college football and will continue to serve as the umbrella organization for collegiate sports. Schools withdrawing from the NCAA is like a group of countries leaving the United Nations. It might have some merit because of its semi-stifling policies, but the big picture is catastrophic without it.

To say four 16-school super conferences will dominate college athletics also oversimplifies the structure of what college football will become. It seems like the Big 12 is headed for the unfortunate trash can of conference past, and the Big East could soon follow. I don't see a neat, cookie-cutter development but a collection of five power conferences combining to alter the Bowl Championship Series and push through a plus-one title game that would appease most people for two reasons. One, it would keep the bowl system intact. Two, it would provide a virtually true championship game that rewards the regular season.

It's challenging to know exactly where realignment is going to lead (disclaimer: I was on vacation last week in Florida and driven crazy by the daily reports of college sports changes), but I see five conferences poised to rule the college sports universe when the current BCS contract expires in 2014. In some variation, here's a glimpse at the potential conference landscape:

BIG TEN: East -- Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers, Connecticut, Indiana, Purdue; West-- Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Notre Dame, Northwestern, Illinois, Missouri

SOUTHEASTERN: East -- Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Kentucky, Virginia, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Duke; West -- Alabama, Auburn, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Mississippi, Mississippi State, LSU, Arkansas

PACIFIC ATHLETIC CONFERENCE: Coastal -- Washington, Washington State, Oregon, Oregon State, USC, UCLA, Stanford, California; Southwest -- Arizona, Arizona State, Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Colorado, Texas A&M

ATLANTIC EAST CONFERENCE: Northeast -- Boston College, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Maryland; Inland -- West Virginia, Cincinnati, Louisville, Memphis; Southern Coast -- Clemson, North Carolina State, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest; Florida -- Miami, Florida State, South Florida, Central Florida

MOUNTAIN-PRAIRIE CONFERENCE: Mountain -- Utah, BYU, Wyoming, Air Force; Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado State, Boise State; Prairie -- Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, TCU, Houston, San Diego State, Fresno State, UNLV

The Pacific Athletic Conference and the Big Ten could maintain their traditional Rose Bowl rivalry with their champions. The Southeastern champion could compete regularly in the Sugar Bowl, as could the Atlantic East in the Orange Bowl and the Mountain-Prairie champ in either the Fiesta or Cotton bowls. The top two teams among the SEC, Mountain-Prairie and Atlantic East conferences would compete annually in the higher-ranked school's bowl (likely the Sugar). Then the Rose Bowl winner and Sugar/Orange/Fiesta winner would play in a Plus-One championship at a rotating site among the Rose, Orange, Sugar, Fiesta and Cotton bowls. All of those sites would serve as "Bowl Championship Series" bowls so the number of premier bowl games doesn't slip from five.

Had those conference alignments been in place last fall, here's how the bowl structure could have played in January:

ROSE: Ohio State vs. Texas

SUGAR: Alabama vs. Boise State (moved from Fiesta)

FIESTA: Iowa vs. Oregon

ORANGE: Cincinnati vs. Florida

COTTON: Nebraska vs. TCU

PLUS-ONE CHAMPIONSHIP: Alabama vs. Texas

It's a less radical plan adding a 16-team full-scale playoff, especially after a season of intense conference play and a league title game. It also allows for the bowls to continue in their present form and invite schools based on their criteria, not a format filled with computers, retired coaches and, even worse, current coaches.

I think this plan is much more in line with the current developments than four 16-team leagues killing the NCAA. It returns college football to its roots and preserves the bowl system. There's nothing wrong with that.