Iowa-Northwestern breakdown

RECORDS

Iowa 15-9 (6-5 Big Ten); Northwestern 10-14 (1-10 Big Ten)

TV

2 p.m. BTN (Eric Collins and Jon Crispin)

LOCATION

Welsh-Ryan Arena, Evanston, Ill.

PREVIOUS MEETING

Teams have not played this year; Iowa leads all-time series 113-58

KEY MATCHUP

Mike Gesell vs. Bryant McIntosh.

McIntosh likely earns a spot on the Big Ten's all-freshman squad this year. He's one of three true freshmen to average more than 11.5 points and 4.0 assists per game. He's scored in double digits 17 teams this year but is coming off one of his worst days in an 0-for-5 performance against Michigan State. Among Big Ten players, Gesell ranks ninth in assists and eighth in assist-to-turnover ratio. He averaged 12 points a game in four consecutive outings then was blanked on all four shot attempts against Minnesota.

KEY STATISTICS

SCORING/OPP:

Iowa 68.8/62.6; NU 63.0/63.8

FG%/OPP FG%:

Iowa 43.4/39.9; NU 43.2/42.5

3PT%/OPP 3PT%:

Iowa 32.2/31.9; NU 34.1/37.9

FT%:

Iowa 74.2; NU 73.0

LIKELY STARTERS

Iowa:

G Mike Gesell (6-2); G Peter Jok (6-6); F Jarrod Uthoff (6-9); F Aaron White (6-9); C Adam Woodbury (7-1)

Northwestern:

G Bryant McIntosh (6-3); G Tre Demps (6-3); F Sanjay Lumpkin (6-6); F Vic Law (6-7); C Alex Olah (7-0)

KEY RESERVES

Iowa

: C Gabe Olaseni (6-10); G Anthony Clemmons (6-2); G Josh Oglesby (6-6); F Dominique Uhl (6-9)

Northwestern:

G Dave Sobolewski (6-1); G JerShon Cobb (6-5); F/G Scottie Lindsey (6-5); C Jeremiah Kriegsburg (6-10)

BOTTOM LINE

Despite its lowly record, Northwestern hardly is a bottom-feeder statistically in the league. The Wildcats give up plenty of 3-pointers, rank last in steals and turnover margin but outside of those numbers, they post modest figures. Northwestern has lost 10 straight in league play but among the early losses include an overtime defeat at Michigan State, a five-point loss to Illinois, a pair of two-point losses to Michigan and Ohio State and a last-second loss at Maryland. But more recently, the Wildcats have slumped, losing each of their last three games by at least 15 points.

Iowa has struggled to maintain positive momentum this year, which has kept fans skeptical. The Hawkeyes won their first two league games, then gave up an 11-point halftime lead in a home loss to Michigan State. Iowa won two straight to open 4-1 in Big Ten play, then dropped three in a row. The Hawkeyes blew out Michigan and Maryland by a combined 34 points, then stumbled in a home loss to Minnesota. The lack of consistency has prevented Iowa's fans from fully embracing this team.

The Hawkeyes are better at every position but maybe point guard. Iowa has won two straight in Evanston by a combined total of 46 points. Last year, Iowa pummeled Northwestern twice in regular-season play by 26 points in each outing. Then the Wildcats surprised Iowa - ending the Hawkeyes' five-game series winning streak - in the Big Ten Tournament with a 67-62 shocker.

Unless Iowa fails to generate consistent stops or has a rough shooting performance, the Hawkeyes should win decisively. But if Northwestern is aggressive on defense and forces plenty of Iowa mistakes, the Wildcats can remain close. The key for Iowa is to put down the Wildcats early. Otherwise, you'll see an excited and motivated team, and that's dangerous for a team with NCAA aspirations.

PREDICTION: Iowa 77, Northwestern 64

l Comments: (319) 339-3169; scott.dochterman@thegazette.com