Iowa-Michigan breakdown

RECORDS

Iowa 13-8 (4-4 Big Ten); Michigan 13-9 (6-4 Big Ten)

TV

6 p.m. ESPN (Rece Davis and LaPhonso Ellis)

LOCATION

Crisler Center, Ann Arbor, Mich.

PREVIOUS MEETING

Teams have not played this season and this is only scheduled game; Michigan leads all-time series 91-59

LINE

Michigan by 2

KEY MATCHUP

Zak Irvin vs. Jarrod Uthoff.

Both players will compete head-to-head often tonight and both are their respective teams' most dangerous scoring threats. Irvin ranks second (behind injured Caris LeVert) in scoring at 13.5, leads in total baskets and 3-pointers. Uthoff is Iowa's one true inside-outside threat. He's first in Iowa 3-pointers and ranks second in scoring (11.4 points), assists (42), steals (23), rebounds (6.2) and blocked shots (31). He's also a good defender on the perimeter and in the paint.

KEY STATISTICS

SCORING/OPP:

Iowa 69.0/63.3; Mich 64.6/61.8

FG%/OPP FG%:

Iowa 41.8/40.0; Mich 41.6/43.3

3PT%/OPP 3PT%:

Iowa 31.8/32.1; Mich 35.4/34.0

FT%:

Iowa 74.1; Mich 74.3

LIKELY STARTERS

Iowa:

G Mike Gesell (6-2); G Peter Jok (6-6); F Jarrod Uthoff (6-9); F Aaron White (6-9); C Adam Woodbury (7-1)

Michigan:

G Aubrey Dawkins (6-6); G Zak Irvin (6-6); G Muhammed-Ali Abdur-Rahkman (6-4); G Spike Albrecht (5-11); C Ricky Doyle (6-9)

KEY RESERVES

Iowa

: C Gabe Olaseni (6-10); G Anthony Clemmons (6-2); G Josh Oglesby (6-6); F Dominique Uhl (6-9)

Michigan:

G Kameron Chatman (6-7); G Andrew Dakich (6-2); F Max Bieldfeldt (6-8); F Sean Lonergan (6-5); C Mark Donnal (6-9)

KEY STORYLINES

1. Guard play.

With regular starters Caris LeVert and Derrick Walton Jr., sidelined with leg injuries, Michigan relies upon two freshmen, a sophomore and a junior in its backcourt. Only Zak Irvin has consistently started this year, while Spike Albrecht has played a major role with the Wolverines for three years.

'What has been interesting to me is their guys are obviously younger, but what they are doing is they are playing really hard on both ends,” Iowa Coach Fran McCaffery said. 'They are still executing John's offense and sharing the ball and some guys are stepping up into roles that other people had before. That has been impressive.”

'At the end of the game when you need one stop or one score can change the game, when you're missing those two (LeVert and Walton), it does affect us,” Michigan Coach JOhn Beilein said.

Iowa doesn't generate consistent production from its backcourt with starters Mike Gesell (7.3 ppg) and Peter Jok (6.2), barely averaging 13.5 points a game. Backup point guard Anthony Clemmons puts up 5.0 points, while reserve guard Josh Oglesby plays nearly 21 minutes a game but scores just 3.7 point.

2. Rebounding.

Iowa ranks second among Big Ten schools in rebounds per game at 37.5 and leads the league in offensive boards at 13.0. Michigan ranks last in total rebounds (31.8) and 13th in offensive rebounding (8.8). Iowa has a significant size advantage with its starting frontcourt going 6-foot-9, 6-9, 7-1 and then key reserve Gabe Olaseni at 6-10. Michigan's tallest player is 6-9 forward Ricky Doyle.

That was the case as well last year entering the game in Ann Arbor. But Michigan closed an even greater statistical gap to just one rebound to negate Iowa's strength in that area.

3. By the numbers.

Statistically, these teams are comparable in scoring offense and defense. Neither are imposing from the field, with Iowa actually shooting slightly better than Michigan (41.8 percent to 41.6 percent). The Wolverines are better from 3-point range, but Iowa's overall defensive numbers are better. Simply, it's going to to come down to making shots when the other team is invested defensively in the half-court. Each team will score in transition.

BOTTOM LINE

In a league where nearly every school has a great coach, Michigan's John Beilein may get more out of his squad than any other coach. That's been proven once he was able to bring in high-level recruits and develop them into his system. Two years ago, Michigan advanced to the NCAA title game. Last year, the Wolverines won the league title by three games.

This year, Michigan is in a much different position. Depleted by losses to the NBA and injuries to two starters, the Wolverines face a major challenge to even reach the NCAA tournament bubble. The young talent Michigan possesses is growing up quickly, and the team continues to play hard. But catching up to its more experienced Big Ten rivals - who have no sympathy for Michigan's predicament - will prove challenging during a brutal stretch of games.

Iowa has lost three straight games, which begs questions about its mental approach to tonight's game. Will the Hawkeyes be loose in understanding two of those losses were to the league's best team (Wisconsin)? Or will they press and play tight? The answer to those questions likely determine the game's outcome.

Michigan has won five straight against Iowa in Ann Arbor by a 16-point average. Normally, that would be very concerning for the Hawkeyes. But last year Iowa lost by only eight and free throws at the end provided the final margin. The Hawkeyes won by 18 last year in the rematch in Iowa City. Plus, several of Michigan's best players from that game are either in the NBA or injured.

In the end, expect a tenacious battle from both teams with the outcome determined in the final minute.

PREDICTION: Iowa 69, Michigan 66

l Comments: (319) 339-3169; scott.dochterman@thegazette.com