Democrats have little chance to take over U.S. House, handicapper says

Democrats seem to have little chance of regaining control of the U.S. House, according to political scientist who handicaps political races, but the outlook is better for Iowa Democratic incumbents.

Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics thinks it's unlikely that Democrats can overtake majority Republicans in this fall's election. In fact, Sabato predicted that if presumptive GOP nominee Mitt Romney wins the presidency Republicans are likely to add to their margin.

However, Sabato, whose blog Crystal Ball, which features detailed and frequently updated analysis of elections across the country, had better news for Eastern Iowa Democratic incumbents. Looking at the 1st and 2nd District races, he called both "likely" wins for incumbent Reps. Bruce Braley and Dave Loebsack.

In the 3rd District match-up of two incumbents, Sabato gives the edge to Republican Rep. Tom Latham over Democratic Rep. Leonard Boswell. He calls that race "Leans Republican."

And in the northwest Iowa 4th District where Republican Rep. Steve King is being challenged by former Iowa First Lady Christie Vilsack, a Democrat, he puts that in the "Lean Republican" column, too.

In his ananlysis, there are only 14 toss-up races among the 435 House seats on the ballot this fall. Crystal Ball rates 235 seats safe, likely or leaning for the Republicans, and rates 186 safe, likely or leaning for the Democrats. Split the toss-ups seven to seven, and one is left with 242 Republicans and 193 Democrats in the House: exactly the margin Republicans had to start this Congress.

For all of Sabato's analysis, click

here.