Why do candidates with low poll numbers, scant support stay at it?

DES MOINES - There is an historically large field of candidates running for president this year.

But a significant number of those candidates have been virtually invisible in the polls.

Better than a third of the major candidates running for president - seven of 19 tracked by Real Clear Politics - have peaked at 2 percent in national polls over roughly the past month. Each of them has at least once polled at 0 percent.

Washington, D.C.-based Real Clear Politics's tracking does not include polling data on Republican Jim Gilmore, who also has been around 1 percent in most polls.

So why are they sticking around the race while their support from prospective voters is next to none?

Experts have a variety of theories, but one sticks out - 'Ego, ego, ego,” said Steffen Schmidt, a political-science professor at Iowa State University.

A mixture of Iowa and national political experts said there are many possible reasons that a candidate stuck at the bottom of the polls stays in the race:

' To raise his or her profile in hopes of being chosen as a running mate or for a Cabinet post

' To use the campaign to champion a specific agenda

' To gain exposure that could lead to a job in the political media

' For self-promotion.

But one explanation most commonly suggested by experts interviewed for this story was each candidate's strong - perhaps inflated or even deluded - belief in himself or herself.

'It's the same thing that motivates everyone who thinks they can be president, only these are losers who want to run but don't have what it takes to connect with voters and do well in the polls,” Schmidt said.

Three of the five Democrats running for president - Jim Webb, Martin O'Malley and Lincoln Chafee - have failed to reach higher than 2 percent in national polls tracked by Real Clear Politics since late September.

Four of the 14 Republican candidates - Bobby Jindal, Rick Santorum, Lindsey Graham and George Pataki - also have failed to surpass 2 percent in those recent national polls.

By and large, the numbers are similarly minuscule in Iowa, where over the same period the same Democratic trio has failed to poll higher than 3 percent, and Santorum, Graham and Pataki have been at 2 percent or lower.

Jindal has achieved a small bump in Iowa, reaching 6 percent in a recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll.

'You may ask, Why are these people killing themselves when they're not even at 1 percent, then go to these (events) where they're slugging it out in Iowa and New Hampshire where it's cold,” said Dr. David Rehr of George Washington University. 'They totally believe in themselves and their cause and their issues.”

The number of lightweight showings in the polls is pronounced in the expansive Republican race. Of the next four candidates, not one has broken 6 percent in national polls since late September. That means better than half the field has polled at 6 percent or lower in the past month and a half.

Schmidt said the expansive Republican field hurts the party and its voters. He said there are too many candidates in the field making too much noise for voters to sort out.

'What the Republicans need to do, frankly, is they need to hire an exterminator and get rid of all the marginal candidates who are distracting and destroying the message,” Schmidt said.

'The Eskimos put their elderly on an ice floe and put them out into the Bering Strait,” Schmidt said, referring to folk lore. 'The Republicans are going to have to put some of their people on an iceberg and send them out into the ocean because this is really bad for the party having all these people yelling and screaming.”

Schmidt said it's incumbent on Iowa voters to send a message to low-polling candidates to trim the crowded field.

'They need to stop showing up at events by candidates who are never going to get the nomination and who need to get the message quickly,” Schmidt said. 'That's what Iowa does - winnow the field. We're not doing it.”

Other than ego, why would candidates stay in the race when precious few voters are saying they'll support them?

Experts had a few theories.

l They use the campaign as an audition for a new job, be it as a running mate for the eventual nominee, a Cabinet post if the party's nominee wins the election or in the political punditry.

'I was very involved in Republican politics for a long time,” Rehr said. 'You could actually see how people would say and do things because they wanted to be commerce secretary or (Office of Management and Budget) director or head of the Justice Department.”

l They use the campaign as a pulpit to advocate for a cause or increase their visibility.

'You're getting publicity. Who would ever listen to Jim Webb if it wasn't for that debate (Tuesday's first Democratic debate)? Or Lincoln Chafee? Come on. Nobody,” said Dr. Allan J. Lichtman, distinguished professor of history at American University. 'Nobody would pay attention to those guys except when they're next to Hillary Clinton.”

l They still believe they can win.

One needs reach back only to the most recent Iowa Republican caucus to find Santorum's late surge to victory, which may give hope to those scraping the bottom of the polling barrel this year.

In the months ahead of the 2012 caucuses, Santorum started at 4 percent in the Iowa Poll, surged to 15 percent and then narrowly won the caucus with 25 percent of the vote.

'I just don't see it happening this year with a Santorum or a Pataki or Lindsey Graham, Jindal, those undercard candidates,” said Christopher Larimer, a political-science professor at the University of Northern Iowa. 'I think it's just too crowded a field, and on both sides there are bigger names who are more-established candidates.”

Only two candidates have left the presidential race - former governors Rick Perry of Texas and Scott Walker of Wisconsin, both Republicans.

Will one of the 1-percenters be next? Or will Iowa caucus-goers still have a full field of candidates from which to choose in February?

'Yes, the field is going to get winnowed because people are going to run out of money, and there's going to be a lot of blowback if they stay in and create a lot of problems for the party,” Schmidt said. Candidates 'may just find that they go (to an event), and there's an empty room. There are only two people over there in the Pizza Ranch, and none of them are actually there for (the candidate). They're just there because they want to eat at the pizza buffet …

.

'And (those candidates) will get the message.”