Potential Grassley-Conlin matchup drawing national spotlight to Iowa

The field is far from set, but interest by groups on both sides of the political divide makes it likely that next year's Iowa race for the U.S. Senate will extend far beyond the state's borders.

Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley had been considered virtually unstoppable in his run for a sixth term until he raised the ire of some Iowans and many Democrats during the health care reform debate. Then, a Democratic heavy-hitter, Des Moines attorney Roxanne Conlin, entered the race for her party's nomination.

“We're definitely paying attention,” said Eric Schultz of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. “Ever since Chuck Grassley folded to ultraright of his party and threw up his hands instead of helping to solve a health-care crisis, we've put Chuck Grassley on our radar.”

Schultz referred to Grassley's apparent change of heart on health care reform during the summer congressional recess. Grassley earlier had been working with other senators on the Finance Committee to produce a bipartisan plan.

Conlin's entry into the race came at the invitation of the chairman of the Iowa Democratic Party, and that and the Grassley health care performance have given Democrats and their allies new hope of retiring the Butler County farmer.

Conlin, 65, has been active in state and national Democratic politics and is a trial lawyer at Roxanne Conlin & Associates. After losing the 1982 governor's race to Terry Branstad, she is thought to have amassed a considerable personal fortune by taking on plaintiff's cases in products liability, employment and civil rights lawsuits.

But even assuming Conlin – who will face Tom Fiegen of Clarence and Bob Krause of Fairfield in the primary - is the candidate, not everyone sees Grassley, 76, as vulnerable.

“Any candidate in Iowa, because of the nature of our state, has to run like they are in the race of their life,” Republican strategist Nick Ryan of Des Moines said. “But vulnerable? I don't know if I would say Chuck Grassley is vulnerable.”

Michael Kiernan, state Democratic Party chairman, said he has been inundated with offers from around the country to help Conlin. He's also encouraged by the altered political landscape since Grassley first was elected to the Senate in 1980.

Kiernan noted that Iowa voter registration has swung from a 100,000-voter advantage for Republicans to an even larger edge for Democrats. And recent Iowa Poll numbers show Grassley's favorability rating has fallen in the last year.

True, said Grassley staffer Jill Kozeny, but the same poll showed Grassley's approval rating higher than those of President Barack Obama and Democratic Sen. Tom Harkin.

“Over a long period of time, Sen. Grassley has won the support of Iowans of every political affiliation,” she said.

Democrats and their allies may use their resources elsewhere “rather than to try to defeat Sen. Grassley, who receives a lot of support from Iowa Democrats,” Kozeny said.

Still, Kiernan said, Grassley's high-profile role in the health-care debate has drawn the attention of Democrats around the country.

“People are outraged out there that he has misled them on the health-care debate by talking about ‘death panels' and ‘pulling the plug on grandma,'” Kiernan said.

Grassley made those references at one of the summer town hall meetings in Iowa. The idea, first raised by Sarah Palin, former vice presidential candidate, that health reform would set up panels of bureaucrats to decide when grandma should die was widely discredited.

Some Democratic analysts predict 2010 will be a bad year for Republicans, despite some negativity about Democrats and the Obama administration today. Several Democratic-leaning groups have indicated they are monitoring the race and will get involved based on the Democratic candidate's viability, including fundraising.

Colin Reed of the National Republican Senatorial Committee is optimistic about Grassley's chances. At the same time, he said the committee “will ensure that he has all the necessary resources to win.”

Nationalizing the race could help Grassley by bringing support from the National Rifle Association and hunters' groups, said one Iowa Republican operative, as well as from anti-health care reform circles.