New Loras poll shows Braley with slight lead in U.S. Senate race

DES MOINES - Yet another poll shows a very close race for Iowa's open U.S. Senate seat, but this one has a twist.

It shows Bruce Braley leading.

The new Loras College Poll, released Tuesday morning, shows Braley leading Joni Ernst by a slim margin, 45.3 percent to 44.2 percent.

That is well within the poll's 2.93 percent margin for error. But it is a reversal of most recent polls, which also were within the margins for error and showed Ernst with narrow leads.

U.S. Rep. Braley, a Democrat from Waterloo, and state Sen. Ernst, a Republican from Red Oak, are running for Iowa's open seat in the U.S. Senate.

Loras College Poll director Christopher Budzisz said the plethora of polls showing razor-thin margins may mean the Braley-Ernst race will be decided by voter turnout.

Republicans historically turn out better in non-presidential elections, but Democrats believe their push to encourage early voting can make up the difference.

Budzisz noted that those who responded to the latest Loras Poll and had voted early favored Braley by 6 percent.

'It's something of a cliché in politics, but I think this year's Senate race may simply come down to turnout efforts,” he said. 'I think there is a general climate supportive of Republicans given that it is a midterm of a Democratic president's second term and that the direction of country and presidential approval numbers are working against Democrats. The question that will be answered in about a week is whether or not the Democratic ‘ground game' and the closing efforts of Congressman Braley are enough to blunt these advantages and hold the seat for the Democrats. It's anyone's race at this point.”

Election Day is one week away.

The Loras Poll showed Braley winning among no-party voters, 43.8 percent to 40.4 percent, while 11.7 percent of no-party voters said they were undecided or refused to choose a candidate when asked by pollsters.

For its latest poll, Loras surveyed 1,121 likely voters from Oct. 21 to Oct. 24.

Budzisz noted that two of those days included news of Ernst canceling her meeting with the Des Moines Register editorial board and failing to schedule meetings with several other Iowa newspapers.

'Here in Iowa, that decision made headlines and Ernst drew criticism. Only time will tell if this episode will have an effect on the final outcome,” Budzisz said.

In September, the Loras Poll showed Braley leading Ernst by almost 5 percent. Polls taken shortly after by other polling outfits showed Ernst ahead by 6 percent.

Since then, most polls have shown Ernst leading by very small margins.

Quinnipiac University, which has been polling in Iowa throughout the election cycle, announced it will release new U.S. Senate poll results Wednesday morning.

Other poll results:

' Republican incumbent Gov. Terry Branstad once again appears to be in good shape for re-election. He leads Democratic state Sen. Jack Hatch, 54.9 percent to 34.1 percent in the latest Loras Poll.

'There remains little movement in, and certainly no erosion of, Gov. Branstad's strong standing in our polling,” Budzisz said. 'Voters also remain very positive in their assessment about the direction of Iowa. Everything points to a very favorable position for Gov. Branstad.”

' Democrat Brad Anderson and Republican Paul Pate are locked in a close race for Iowa Secretary of State. The new Loras Poll shows Anderson with a slight edge, 39.9 percent to 39 percent.

' In other statewide races: incumbent Republican Auditor Mary Mosiman leads Democratic challenger Jon Niederbach, 37.1 percent to 30.3 percent; Democratic incumbent Treasurer Michael Fitzgerald leads Republican challenger Sam Clovis, 46.5 percent to 34.8 percent; Republican incumbent Secretary of Agriculture Bill Northey is cruising past Democratic challenger Sherrie Taha, 49.5 percent to 29.4 percent.