Iowa analysts assess potential for historic caucus events

Iowa for decades has hosted first-in-the-nation caucuses, launching the state-by-state process of winnowing presidential prospects. And over the years, Iowa has produced plenty of surprises.

But political experts across the state and nation believe this cycle could be unique - even unprecedented in modern history - with Republican divisions lining up to produce a potential conundrum at the party's convention this summer.

'There's the unique opportunity for no one to have a majority of the votes during the first round of the convention,” University of Iowa political-science professor Cary Covington said.

With caucus and primary voting scheduled to begin in Iowa in just two weeks, Covington said, the Republican Party seems fragmented into three groups - establishment Republicans backing the likes of former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush or U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio; social conservatives supporting candidates such as Sen. Ted Cruz or former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee; and a sort of alienated, marginally Republican sector mostly behind businessman Donald Trump.

'Because of the nature of the divisions between the three groups, it's hard to see how they will coalesce down to two groups,” Covington said. 'Then it's hard to see how one gets enough support to win a majority of delegates.”

And if no candidate garners a majority during the first round of voting at the party convention in Cleveland on July 18-21, there could be a second ballot. In that case, he said, delegates are released from their previous voting obligations, meaning essentially all bets are off.

'There is no guessing,” Covington said. 'Well, actually there is guessing, and my guess is that you would see the party leaders backing somebody with establishment credentials to be the nominee.”

Because of this year's fascinating confluence of factors, Covington said, he hopes to take UI students to the Republican convention for a two-week, on-site course through the Washington Center for Internships and Academic Seminars. The seminar would involve morning courses and afternoon volunteer fieldwork with the party, convention committee, media and other related organizations.

Covington said he, too, would go and function as a faculty member for the Washington Center, both teaching and overseeing some of the students' volunteer work.

'This looks like a good year to do that because it looks like it might be a historic event,” Covington said.

That's the reason a free Iowa Presidential Caucus course being offered online by Iowa State University has attracted 2,000-some users and is expected to have 3,000 registrants before the course ends Feb. 2 - the day after the caucuses. It's the reason Rutgers University political science professor David Redlawsk has been in Des Moines since last fall, serving as a research fellow at Drake University on a project focused on the Iowa caucuses.

Covington likened this year's circumstances in some ways to the 1968 presidential campaign, when former Alabama Gov. George Wallace ran as a third-party candidate, after rejection from the Democratic establishment. He was a segregationist who tapped into a group of fed-up Americans similar to those Trump seems to be attracting, according to Covington.

'He did well and got a lot of votes,” he said. 'And people were worried that he would win enough that he would prevent (Richard) Nixon or (Hubert) Humphrey from getting it.”

Covington said Wallace is proof someone appealing to voter anger and disillusionment could convert the sentiment into votes.

'So Trump could turn them out,” he said. 'We'll see.”

‘The least damage'

A lot will depend on early voting states, such as Iowa, according to Covington. If Trump does well here and in places such as New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada and the many other states scheduled to hold caucuses or primaries throughout February and March, then more voters might feel empowered to continue the momentum.

'It's one thing to get people riled up and upset, it's another thing to get them to actually vote,” Covington said.

Recent polls in Iowa and nationally show Trump and Cruz as favorites among caucus and primary voters, with Rubio coming in as the top establishment-type candidate. Considering current divisions, Covington said, it's hard to predict how Republicans might come together around one person.

'The establishment people are realizing they are the weakest of the three coalitions, and they might need to make peace with Trump or Cruz,” he said. 'Their calculations are, ‘Who can do the least damage to the party in the long run?' They are trying to sort that out.”

Some have speculated about a 'brokered convention” that would - in the case of a three-way split - lead to delegate jockeying. Party leaders could be tasked with selecting a nominee, potentially a 'dark horse” candidate not even in the race yet.

But, Covington said, that hasn't happened for generations, and in today's political atmosphere, it seems unlikely.

'The mentality of our nominating process has changed so much, that the idea of party leaders telling us who the nominee is just is unpalatable,” Covington said.

Although analysts expect the typical rigorous debate across Iowa caucuses sites come Feb. 1, Rutgers professor Redlawsk said this year's abnormal campaign cycle has created some unique circumstances for voters.

In speaking with Iowans at recent events, Redlawsk said, he's found many remain undecided - despite what the polls show. Typically, he said, they have fewer candidate options at this point.

'So that is really different,” he said. 'And I think that is a real important part of it and one reason we all are talking about the possibility of a brokered convention.”

Redlawsk said he's dubious that will happen.

'But it's not out of the realm of possibility,” he said.

Nothing seems impossible to Iowa State political science professor Steffen Schmidt, who is teaching the university's online caucus course.

'I've been doing this observing and analysis for 46 years, and I've never seen a year like this,” he said.