New poll: Iowa caucus race ‘tight as a tick’ between Trump, Cruz

CEDAR RAPIDS - The race for the top spot in Iowa's Feb. 1 precinct caucuses is 'tight as a tick” between Donald Trump and Ted Cruz, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll completed Sunday night.

Although 12 candidates are competing in the first-in-the-nation caucuses, it is essentially a two-man race between Trump and Cruz, with the New York businessman leading the Texas senator 31 percent to 29 percent.

'That's a statistical dead heat,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac poll.

The poll of 602 likely GOP caucusgoers conducted by live interviewers calling landlines and cellphones Jan. 5-10 also found there's not much of a race for third place, Brown said Monday.

Florida Sen. Marco Rubio is in 'pretty solid shape” with 15 percent. Behind him is retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, who has slipped to 7 percent with no other candidate above New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie's 4 percent. Five percent of likely Republican caucusgoers are undecided, but 46 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind.

A month ago, the Quinnipiac poll had Trump at 28 percent, Cruz at 27 percent, Rubio at 14 percent and Carson at 10 percent.

The most recent results show that GOP caucusgoers like Cruz better than Trump 'and give him much higher scores for honesty, empathy, experience and for sharing their values,” Brown said.

'But they see the New York businessman as better able to handle some key issues,” including the economy and terrorism, he added.

Cruz may have a 'higher ceiling” as the race enters the final weeks, Brown said, because only 7 percent of Republicans say they could never vote for Cruz, while 26 percent say no way to Trump.

'That's a big number,” Brown said. 'That would give one the thought the Cruz might - and I underline the word might - have a little better growth potential than Trump.”

The key to who comes out on top on caucus night will be turnout - who can get more of their supporters to the 1,600-plus precinct caucuses around the state, he said.

'We all know that everybody says they have a good turnout operation, but you really don't find that out until caucus night when one candidate always has a little bit better turnout operation than the others,” Brown said.

In a turnaround from December when GOP caucusgoers said terrorism was the most important issue, this month 27 percent identified the economy and jobs as their top concern. Trump tops Cruz 46 to 16 percent when likely caucusgoers were asked who can best handle those issues. Trump also gets the nod 36 percent to 22 percent over Cruz on handling terrorism and 46 to 22 percent on illegal immigration.

Cruz topped Trump 27 to 24 percent on foreign policy, according to Quinnipiac.

For complete results, visit www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.