Voters expect Clinton-Trump in 2016 race, but Carson leads GOP field

CEDAR RAPIDS - Iowans are expecting a Clinton-Trump matchup in the 2016 presidential election, but based on a University of Iowa Hawkeye Poll, neither candidate their party's nomination sewn.

And in Donald Trump's case, he's not leading the race for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination, according to the poll of 397 Republicans and 402 Democrats 'possible” or 'likely” caucusgoers conducted Oct. 19-25.

Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson currently holds the GOP lead with 25.3 percent of Republican polled saying they would back him. Trump was the runner-up with the support of 22 percent. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio trail with 11.3 percent and 10.2 percent, respectively. 'Don't know” also accounted for 10.2 percent of the respondents.

'Carson appears to be consolidating his recent surge past Trump, especially among likely caucusers,” said Frederick Boehmke, UI political science professor and faculty adviser of the Hawkeye Poll. 'Trump's stronger support among those less likely to attend the caucuses could set up a big turnout battle, with Trump needing a big showing to have a chance on Feb. 1.”

In the Democratic race, Hillary Clinton has a sizable lead over Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders - 52.5 percent to 40.4 percent. Vice President Joe Biden, who withdrew while the survey was in the field, had the support for 3.1 percent of Democrats.

The Hawkeye Poll results indicate 'the race in Iowa is closer than other polls have suggested,” according to Tim Hagle, associate professor of political science and author of 'Riding the Caucus Roller Coaster.” 'Although Clinton appears to have a strong lead over Sanders, a victory for her in Iowa is not a foregone conclusion.”

Despite Carson's lead among Republicans, 32.1 percent of respondent thought Trump would be the nominee.

In Clinton's case, 67.9 percent of all respondents selected her as the eventual winner including 81.9 percent of Democrats and 64.2 percent of Republicans.

If voters get their Trump-Clinton match-up, Clinton currently holds a slight edge, with 45.4 percent of all respondents preferring her to 42.1 percent for Trump.

Independents split evenly between the two at 43.8 percent while Clinton leads among Democrats 91.2 percent to 4.7 percent and Trump leads among Republicans 74.5 percent to 10.4 percent.

Clinton led among females, 48.8 to 40.2 percent, while Trump led among men, 46.3 percent to 42.6 percent. Clinton holds a similar edge against Carly Fiorina, 45.1 percent to 41.1 percent, with female respondent evenly split between the two. Were she to match up against Marco Rubio, respondents leaned slightly towards the GOP nominee with 45.6 percent preferring Rubio against 45 percent for Clinton.

Breaking down the results, Carson received more support from men than women, but more women would back Carson than Trump. Carson led Trump is all age groups with his greatest support coming from those 70 and older - 39.1 percent - and least among voters 18-24 - 10.4 percent.

Clinton has the support of 57.3 percent of women and 42.7 percent of men. In Sanders' case, 46.2 percent of men and 36 percent of women would back his candidacy.

The Hawkeye Poll was conducted by the Hawkeye Poll Cooperative, comprised of UI faculty, graduate students and undergraduate students in political science, with the cooperation and facilities of the Iowa Social Science Research Center, directed by UI Political Science Professor Frederick J. Boehmke.