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2-Minute Drill: Kansas Jayhawks vs. Iowa State Cyclones
Nov. 10, 2016 9:15 pm
Kansas and Iowa State look to avoid the Big 12 cellar when they meet Saturday in Lawrence. Here's a breakdown of the game, which kicks off at 11 a.m. on FSN.
ISU RUSH OFFENSE VS. KU RUSH DEFENSE
Iowa State has played the top two rush defenses in the Big 12 in the last two weeks in Kansas State and Oklahoma. The Cyclones ran for more yards than either team gives up on average. A sustainable rushing attack is starting to show itself, and a lot of it has to do with quarterback Joel Lanning.
In the last two games Lanning has passed sparingly, but has 17 carries for 135 yards and two touchdowns. Fellow quarterback Jacob Park even said this week Lanning is running better than a lot of running backs in the Big 12. Running backs Mike Warren (ankle) and David Montgomery (concussion-like symptoms) aren't 100 percent, but are expected to play. There also is the possibility Kene Nwangwu could take the first snap.
Read more: Iowa State tweaks depth chart at QB, RB
Kansas is the second-worst rush defense in the conference, giving up 224.6 yards per game. But the Jayhawks have been able to get some push at the line occasionally. Defensive end Dorance Armstrong leads the league in tackles for loss (14.0) and is second in sacks (8.0).
Advantage: Iowa State
ISU PASS OFFENSE VS. KU PASS DEFENSE
Both ISU quarterbacks have started games this season, and it sounds like it could be either one at this point. Jacob Park probably gets the edge over Joel Lanning based on how each one has been used within the offense. It's fair to expect to see them both get snaps and continue rotating within the same series.
Iowa State is the only school with two quarterbacks in the top 10 in Big 12 passing yards per game. Lanning and Park have combined to throw for 2,154 yards and 17 touchdowns this season. Allen Lazard, who is healthy again and putting up big numbers, Dondre Daley, Deshaunte Jones and Trever Ryen are just the start of wide receiver options.
Read more: Production up for Lazard, but all he wants is wins
The strength of Kansas' defense is its secondary. The Jayhawks are third in the Big 12 in pass defense, giving up 239.4 yards per game, getting six interceptions and holding opponents to a 57.8 completion percentage. Safety Fish Smithson is 10 in the conference in tackles, picking up 7.1 per game.
Advantage: Push
KU RUSH OFFENSE VS. ISU RUSH DEFENSE
Kansas doesn't have a ball carrier in the top 10 in the Big 12 in rushing, but has a capable running back in Ke'aun Kinner. The 5-foot-9 and 191-pounder is averaging 5.3 yards per carry and had a season-high 145 yards on 14 carries last month against Oklahoma State.
The Jayhawks use three different quarterbacks at times, but have produced just 108 yards per game on the ground. They average 3.3 yards per carry and have a conference-low eight rushing touchdowns.
Iowa State's rush defense has been a weak spot much of the season, allowing 242.1 yards per game. Coach Matt Campbell said the defensive front, particularly Demond Tucker, is coming off its best performance of the year and has benefited from moving Jhaustin Thomas from defensive end to tackle.
Advantage: Push
KU PASS OFFENSE VS. ISU PASS DEFENSE
Kansas hasn't produced a potent air attack this season, but has a couple pieces that are worth noting. Wide receiver Steven Sims is the highest-usage pass catcher for the Jayhawks with 51 catches for 702 yards and six touchdowns. He gets 78 receiving yards per game.
Three different quarterbacks have been used this season, but Montell Cozart is listed atop the depth chart this week. Sophomore Ryan Willis and freshman Carter Stanley are in the mix, too. Cozart's season high production was 24 completions for 250 yards in a loss to Oklahoma State.
Iowa State owns the second-best pass defense in the Big 12, giving up 231.4 yards per game. Its efficiency is sixth best while allowing quarterbacks to complete 62.1 percent of their passes, but Kamari Cotton-Moya, Brian Peavy and Jomal Wiltz have anchored the back end. Peavy and Wiltz are in the top 10 in the conference in passes defended while Cotton-Moya is 11th in tackles.
Advantage: Iowa State
SPECIAL TEAMS
Much of the reason Iowa State was within striking distances in the majority of its conference games hinge on its special teams. The Cyclones rank 30th in the FBS in special teams efficiency, according to ESPN data, while Kansas is 114th.
Kicker Cole Netten became Iowa State's all-time leading scorer last week against Oklahoma and is one of two Big 12 kickers who have just one field goal miss this season. KU kicker Matthew Wyman hasn't missed a PAT, but is 7-for-12 on field goals with a long of 42.
Kansas and Iowa State are in the bottom five of the league in punt return average, but are fifth and sixth in kickoff returns. Kene Nwangwu has found a niche as a kick returner, averaging 24.5 yards per return.
Advantage: Iowa State
INTANGIBLES
1. The series — Kansas leads the all-time series against Iowa State 50-39-6, with a 28-17-3 record in Lawrence. The Cyclones have won five of the last six games, with the only loss coming in 2014 in Lawrence (34-14).
2. The drought — Iowa State has not won a Big 12 road game since Nov. 30, 2013 (52-44 in 3OT at West Virginia), a span of 12 games. Kansas hasn't beaten an FBS opponent not named Iowa State since Sept. 20, 2014 (24-10 against Central Michigan).
3. The margin — In Iowa State's last five wins against Kansas, the Cyclones have outscored the Jayhawks, 164-62, and won by an average of 20.4 points.
3 & OUT
1. A 1-8 record is not necessarily equal — Iowa State and Kansas will be in a fight to stay out of the Big 12 basement, but have gotten to their 1-8 records through different circumstances, particularly in the Big 12. The Cyclones have lost their six conference games by an average margin of 11.2 points. The Jayhawks have lost by an average of 30.5 points.
#Cyclone players preview the Kansas game. #CyclONEnation pic.twitter.com/DTACniGUFk
— Cyclone Football (@CycloneFB)
2. Force some turnovers — Kansas has forced a lot of turnovers, but also has turned it over an eye-popping amount. The Jayhawks are minus-15 in turnover margin, which is 10 more than the nearest conference team while Iowa State is minus-three. If the Cyclones are able to force Kansas into mistakes, particularly early, they will be able to dictate the game.
3. Red zone — Iowa State has the second best red-zone offense in the conference, scoring on 24 of 26 opportunities. Kansas is at the bottom, scoring on 18 of 23 attempts. On defense, the Jayhawks have the second best red zone defense, holding opponents to 37-of-47. The Cyclones are second from the bottom in red zone defense, with opponents scoring on 38-of-42 tries.
ISU WILL WIN IF ... It can initiate a successful running game and force Kansas into some early turnovers.
KU WILL WIN IF ... It can get a couple scores early, force Iowa State into some desperate situations and get off the field on third down. The Jayhawks are the best percentage third-down defense in the conference.
PREDICTION: Iowa State 35, Kansas 17
Iowa State Demond Tucker celebrates a stop against Oklahoma last Thursday at Jack Trice Stadium in Ames. (Scott Morgan/Freelance)