Trump tops GOP field, but not Clinton

CEDAR RAPIDS - With the support of one-in-five Republican voters, Donald Trump is the clear leader in the crowded field for the party's presidential nomination, according to a Quinnipiac University National poll released Thursday morning.

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush are the only other Republicans in double digits in the poll at 13 and 10 percent, respectively. 'Don't know” comes in at 12 percent.

The poll could have significance heading into the first party-sanctioned candidate debate Aug. 6 in Cleveland. The sponsors say they will take the top 10 GOP contenders based on national polls.

Based on the Quinnipiac results, Trump, Walker and Bush would be shoo-ins. Retire physician Ben Carson, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio - all at 6 percent - also would be on the stage. Ohio Gov. John Kasich and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, tied at 5 percent, would likely join the discussion.

The race for 10th place gets interesting. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is in the 10th spot at 3 percent, but close behind are Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal and former Texas Gov. Rick Perry at 2 percent. Businesswoman Carly Fiorina, South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, former New York Gov. George Pataki and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum are tied at 1 percent and former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore, who entered the race this week, was at less than 1 percent.

Pollsters and those that follow them closely have questioned the use of national polls to determine who should be in debates. Their skepticism is based, in part, on the fact that there is no national race for the Democratic or Republican nominations.

'The nomination process is a dynamic state-by-state-by-state process,” according to University of Northern Iowa political science professor Donna Hoffman.

The ratings, she said on Iowa Public Radio's River to River, may be less about actual support for the candidates than simple name recognition.

'Pollsters reads a list of names and Donald Trump stands out,” Hoffman said. She cited a CNN poll that found many people have not heard of all of the candidates. Walker, who is leading or second in many national polls, was unknown by 39 percent of those polled.

Using national polls to determine who should be on the stage 'is a silly thing to do,” according to Andy Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. 'You're just getting candidates with greater name recognition and notoriety.”

Quinnipiac's Peter Brown agrees that the results are not predictive, 'but they shape the race.”

Results of the Quinnipiac poll, if they are included in determining the lineup, will have a huge impact, Brown said.

'The debate is a big deal” that puts 10 leading candidates on the national stage 'and the others are out of luck.”

'It's hard to say you are a serious candidate if you don't make the top 10,” Brown said.

The consequences of that may extend beyond one debate. Hoffman said it may be harder for those candidates who don't make the cut to convince people who fund campaigns to open their wallets.

Those candidates who get into the Fox News debate are likely to raise more money, get more interview and more attention, said James Pindell of WMUR-TV Political Report in New Hampshire.

He calls that the 'virtuous circle going up.” The candidates not in the top 10 are in what he referred to as the 'vicious circle going down.”

Among the other findings by Quinnipiac were that Democrats Hillary Clinton, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and Vice President Joe Biden all would defeat Trump in head-to-head match-ups.

The outcome would be different against Bush and Walker. Bush would beat either Clinton or Sanders. Walker would beat Sanders and tie Biden.

For more information, visit www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.