Gas tax boost is primed for action, but so are opponents

It's looking more and more likely that Iowa lawmakers will ask Iowans to spare an extra dime at the gas pump.

Go figure. Count me as surprised.

As late as last week I still doubted a gas tax vote would even happen. I remained convinced that skittish Lawmakers worried about no-tax pledges, gloomy polls and self-preservation would veer off and play it safe. I still think that's a possibility.

But in recent days all signs seem to suggest the big push is on, and action may be approaching. If legislative leaders can line up the last votes they need to make this a thoroughly bipartisan leap into the volcano, they'll hit the gas and shove it through. This thing might pass so fast, or so I've heard, we'll be forking over that new dime in March. We'll see.

Maybe it's not as unpopular as I thought. A Loras College poll of 1,200 Iowa voters found 53.8 percent support a dime increase in the current 21-cent per-gallon tax (19 cents for ethanol blend and 22.5 cents for diesel). Democrats and independents are in favor while Republicans narrowly oppose it 48.8 to 45.2.

Maybe it's not as painful as some feared. Iowa State University's Dave Swenson, an associate scientist in economics, says if you drive 20,000 miles each year and average 25 miles per-gallon, the dime will cost you about $7 a month.

And maybe Iowans finally believe there's a need. State transportation officials and allied groups, from road-builders and farmers to truckers and bankers, have been arguing for years that a gap between needed road repairs and available bucks is widening. They've pegged the shortfall at $215 million annually.

Would a dime cover that gap? According to a December analysis by the nonpartisan Legislative Services Agency, a full dime would collect $203.7 million in year one. So it comes close.

Over nine years, a 10-cent increase adds $1.6 billion to the constitutionally protected road fund.

But if you factor in an expected decrease in fuel consumption, that $203 million shrinks to $189 million in about six years, according to the analysis. If gas prices stay blessedly low, the drop in fuel consumption would be slowed. If gas prices jump, the drop in consumption, and tax bucks, would be sharper.

So approving a dime takes care of a real and immediate need for road bucks. But, long term, the issue of how to pay for pavement and other needs remains a big question mark.

Some readers suggest that lawmakers approve a gas tax increase with a 10-year sunset, or expiration. That mechanism would force leaders and lawmakers to better explain how the money had been spent, and come up with ideas over the next decade on a longer-term funding fix.

I like it, although I don't expect that to happen. I get the sense lawmakers want to keep things fast and simple and move on.

But, hey, this is the Statehouse. When's the last time anything was fast and simple?

'I'm not convinced this is a done deal,” said Drew Klein, state director for Americans for Prosperity, a conservative group actively opposing a gas tax increase.

He may be right. You can't count out the opposition just yet.

You've got old-school critics, namely Iowans for Tax Relief, which has been opposing tax increases here for the better part of 40 years. During the 2014 election cycle, ITR reported $145,000 in political spending, most of it going to Republican lawmakers. That includes $105,000 to 20 House GOP members.

Then you've got new school. Americans for Prosperity, based in Virginia and founded by the (thunder clap) Koch brothers, is a growing political force in Iowa with field offices, 15 staffers on the ground and tens of thousands of members.

Like a lot of outside groups, AFP spent considerable bucks in Iowa's big U.S. Senate race last fall. Unlike most of those groups, which mostly poured bucks into mind-numbing TV ads, AFP spent more than $200,000 on canvassing, a.k.a door-knocking, according to federal campaign disclosures. While they were at it, tablet-wielding AFP staff and volunteers collected all manner of data on the voters they encountered.

It's the folks in that database who now are lighting up legislative switchboards and inboxes urging lawmakers to steer clear of a gas tax increase. And the group wants lawmakers to know before they vote that AFP's network isn't going away.

Instead of a gas tax boost, AFP favors a constitutional amendment setting aside 3.5 percent of the state general fund for roads. With much of the general fund already spent on education, health care and human services, AFP's proposal surely would spark a festive 'kids vs. concrete” debate. Bring your popcorn.

What AFP doesn't want us to know is who is bankrolling all of this. Americans for Prosperity, thanks to the federal tax code, isn't required to disclose its donors. So they don't. And Klein casts that lack of transparency in the noblest terms.

'The history of that dates back to the civil rights movement where you had donors that were funding some of the civil rights movement and obviously there was a real safety risk in disclosing who those people were. It was an unpopular thing to be on that side of history,” Klein said.

I appreciate the effort. But this is, of course, NHL caliber horsehockey. The real reason AFP is afraid to disclose its donors is because that information likely would undercut the credibility of its message. Just ask the vote no casino folks in Cedar Rapids what happened once we all found out it was Riverside Casino and Golf Resort bankrolling their campaign. It matters to voters who exactly is paying the freight.

With a few mouse clicks, I easily can see Iowans For Tax Relief founder David Stanley and his wife Jean Stanley contribute the lion's share of money spent by the group, along with a lengthy list of small donors from Iowa. Agree or disagree with ITR, at least we know who we're dealing with.

The really big question is whether these groups throw enough tacks into the road to stop the gas tax convoy. Until all the votes are lined up, anything's possible. Big legislative tax increase votes are rare as comets and less predictable.

If leaders can move fast, the affect of opponents's efforts will be blunted. If it drags out, opposition could start wearing on lawmakers, especially Republicans, and the gas tax could get tangled in other issues. Oh, and gas prices could go up. I still see a bumpy ride ahead.

l Comments: (319) 398-8452; todd.dorman@thegazette.com.