Caucus turnout freakout

Steffen Schmidt

Historically, about 20 percent of Iowa Democrats and Republicans turn out for the presidential caucuses. Predictably, the media are starting to kvetsch (freak out) about how unrepresentative Iowa is and how low caucus turnout means Iowa should not be first in the nation. When Fox called me this week, Neil Cavuto wanted to do a segment on why and how 'no show” Iowans could be encouraged to participate.

But hold on for a moment. Here are the facts about voter turnout averages across the nation.

LOCAL AND STATE ELECTIONS

According to an article in Governing by Mike Maciag, 'Voter turnout for local elections has historically lagged but is getting worse, prompting officials to explore new ways to get people to the polls.” Voting in local and state elections has dropped from a low average 30 percent average to a miserable 20 percent. In school board and other local initiatives turnout even in 'civic minded” states such as Iowa is often below 10 percent. Turnout in the 1999 mayoral election in Dallas, Texas was a shocking 5 percent.

Maciag points out that, 'Long ago, political machines routinely mobilized a healthy cadre of big city voters with often predictable results. Later, during the 1960s and 70s, more than two-thirds of registered voters cast ballots in New York, Los Angeles and elsewhere when power shifted to racial and ethnic minorities. But now, voter participation in big cities is typically low, prompting officials to explore ways to get more people out to the polls.” The extension of voting rights to 18-year-old Americans severely depressed turnout as younger voters vote much less and the older, more educated, and wealthier vote much more.

PRIMARIES AND CAUCUSES

According to the authoritative bipartisanpolicy.org, the average voter turnout in the 2012 statewide primaries - for president, governor and U.S. Senate - crashed after 1972 when the Democratic and later Republican 'reforms” introduced caucuses and primaries as the method for selecting candidates. Remember that was the year the 'McGovern-Fraser reforms” reduced the power of party leaders, bosses, and required diversity, transparency and grassroots input.

In 2012, turnout for primaries and caucuses was only 15.9 percent of eligible citizens.

GENERAL ELECTION

In 2014 some states had higher voter turnout than others. Maine 58.5 percent, Wisconsin, 56.8 percent, which were on the high-end. On the low end were Texas, 28.3 percent, and New York 29 percent. Iowa is actually pretty good with 50.2 percent turnout. Fairvote.org summarizes the data thus: Voter turnout in the United States fluctuates in national elections. In recent elections, about 60 percent of the voting eligible population votes during presidential election years, and about 40 percent votes during midterm elections. Turnout is lower for odd year, primary and local elections.

So when Fox's Neil Cavuto's producer chatted with me I tried to make the case that Iowa's caucus 'no show” voters are just part of a national reality. Americans are not highly motivated to vote and even less likely to show up for caucuses or primaries.

I understand when my colleagues in the Iowa media are despondent about low caucus night turnout. However, instead of blaming Iowa they should point out that primaries have low turnout as well. For example, only 19 percent of registered voters cast ballots in the 2014 New Hampshire primary.

In the end, those who do participate make the difference. That's just how democracy works.

l Steffen Schmidt is professor of political science at Iowa State University and CEO of SEAS LLC consulting. Comments: steffenschmidt2005@gmail.com