Alzheimer’s drug could mean $2 billion for maker

For a disease without a cure, and a field of drug development prone to disappointments, Axovant Sciences may be the next great hope.

By month's end, pivotal results from testing Axovant's experimental intepirdine as a treatment for patients with mild to moderate Alzheimer's disease could point the way toward a new option for patients and set the company up to generate more than $2 billion in sales by 2023, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

Positive Phase 3 data might spur shares to quadruple from recent levels, said Jefferies analyst Michael Yee, who views Axovant as an 'attractive tuck-in” for a larger neurological-focused company.

Yee sees a 'big asymmetric upside potential on the Alzheimer's data” and forecasts peak sales of $2 billion to $4 billion per year, if the therapy wins regulatory approval.

Shares in Axovant rallied more than 40 percent after Axovant on Sept. 15 listed a job on Glassdoor for a project manager to work with the team submitting its new drug application.

Shares of Axovant had a similar run in April when the company put former Medivation CEO David Hung at the helm. Hung, who sold Medivation to Pfizer for $14 billion last year, called Axovant an under-appreciated 'jewel.”

The company is seeking to break into the largest market opportunity in the biotech sector as Alzheimer's disease affects about 5.3 million people in the U.S.

While investors have piled into the stock ahead of the expected September readout, JMP analyst Jason Butler said failure wouldn't be a complete shock for all.

'If the data are positive, this is definitely a $2 billion drug,” he said. 'But if you're investing ahead of this data you know it is a high-risk, high-reward opportunity.”