Stat Pak: Striving for relevance

THE BULLET POINT FROM THE ILLINOIS RESULT

Usually, this is five. Let's not kid ourselves.

Iowa looked great in the first half against Illinois. It did almost everything really well and right and then, when it really mattered, the Hawkeyes had their helmets on backward.

We're going to skip all of that and focus on what's in front of Iowa (7-3, 4-2 Big Ten) now that the 30-14 victory over Illinois (4-6, 1-5) is filed. The first half was a struggle, but the Hawkeyes held serve and now time for a stab at something great.

That is No. 15 Wisconsin (8-2, 5-1) this Saturday at Kinnick Stadium.

Suddenly, this sleepy season, one that's had more angst than joy, one that's had zero victories over FBS teams with winning records and one that's seen the Hawkeyes lose and then win for four straight weeks, has a chance to really, really, really matter.

The Big Ten West Division title is down to these final two weekends, where one of 16 permutations eventually will play out. Iowa has three paths to the West title and a spot in the Big Ten championship game in Indianapolis on Dec. 6.

All three championship conclusions for the Hawkeyes include victories over the Badgers and Nov. 28 against Nebraska.

So, yes, the first half against Illinois. Iowa led just 9-7 and was stopped on four downs inside of the Fighting Illini's 8-yard line. The Hawkeyes also handed Illinois a TD after a fumble on a QB-center exchange inside their 40. The first half ended with kicker Marshall Koehn, who entered the game on a streak of seven straight field goals made, doinking a 46-yard attempt off the right upright.

It was gross, but that was then and this is now. On to Saturday. You can make a strong argument this is the most relevant game at Kinnick since the 2010 Wisconsin matchup. The Badgers were ranked 10th; Iowa was 12th. Wisconsin won 31-30 in a game that included a blocked PAT by UW defensive end J.J. Watt. Yes, that J.J. Watt. Since that game, it's been a fight for relevance for the Iowa program.

It had a shot against then-No. 13 Michigan State with a 6-3 mark going into the 2011, but Iowa fell, 37-21. Last season against Wisconsin would've been in the argument, but the Badgers blotted out the Hawkeyes in the fourth quarter.

It's close-up time for the 2014 Hawkeyes.

'We've seen them on cut-ups getting ready for this game,' Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz said after Illinois, not exactly diving headlong into the hype (understandably). 'They look like a really good Wisconsin football team, just like you'd expect.'

As Ferentz was saying this, Wisconsin trailed Nebraska 17-3. Then, UW running back Melvin Gordon had a 42-yard run in the first quarter, a 62-yard touchdown run in the second quarter, a 44-yard run in the second quarter and a 43-yard run in the third quarter.

Gordon left contrails on a proud Nebraska program to the tune of a school, Big Ten and FBS record 408 rushing yards on 25 carries (16.3 ypc.). The NCAA single-game record was 406 rushing yards by LaDainian Tomlinson (TCU) vs. UTEP, Nov. 20, 1999.

Wisconsin piled on the Huskers, 59-24, and that's why the Badgers have eight of those 16 Big Ten West scenarios in their favor.

Close-up time for the 2014 Hawkeyes.

'You want to be involved in big games,' strong safety John Lowdermilk said. 'That's why you come to schools like this. It's a huge challenge. They have a lot of good players. They're a very physical team. It's a challenge for us.

'We didn't play the way we wanted to against Minnesota, which was another physical team. I think it's an opportunity to showcase our ability.'

It truly is Iowa's close-up. For the first time this year, the Hawkeyes find themselves in the 2:30 ABC slot, a first-choice Big Ten game. Of course, a lot of that has to do with Gordon, a Kenosha, Wis., native who, yes, did once commit to the Hawkeyes but who probably was never leaving his home state.

We'll get to more and more of that throughout the week. One thing you don't need to spend time on before this one is Iowa championship scenarios. There's only one option and that's win. Relevance will follow.

'It's playoff weeks, we have two playoff weeks ahead of us,' linebacker Quinton Alston said. 'We have two great teams coming to Iowa City and I'm glad it's Iowa City.'

This is a link that was sent to me earlier today. It's an accountant who loves sports and is into the Gophers. It's an accountant, so he is way better at Excel than I am.

For Iowa it's simple, win and hope Minnesota doesn't win out.

THREE STARS

1. RB Mark Weisman

— The senior running back notched his first 100-yard effort in 18 games, rushing 23 times for 134 yards. Weisman was Weisman, running to aiming points, making a little bit of a move and but then really just setting a good base, lowering his shoulder and giving the first tackler a shoulder pad to munch on. There's always a lot of gnashing of teeth on whether or not Weisman is a fullback (everyone Iowa, including Ferentz, RB coach Chris White and Weisman believe he is) and how and why he's running back for the Hawkeyes. That shouldn't diminish the fact that Weisman has poured everything into this. He's a former walk-on fullback from the Chicago suburbs who tried to live an academy life at Air Force, decided it wasn't for him and wedged his way onto the Hawkeyes. Not trying to lecture you, just trying to show the side of the Weisman story that 'is.' Weisman's career has been unexpected and is absolutely noteworthy. He has poured everything he's had into this.

2. The offensive line

— It was outstanding. Now, it has to be great two weeks in a row. If it's not, Iowa will lose to Wisconsin and the championship portion of Iowa's season will be over. Can't state it anymore plainly than that. Do you see any scenarios where Iowa beats Wisconsin and the O-line plays kind of meh? Me neither.

3. Team defense

— It's a term that I've kind of thrown around loosely. I'll probably explore it more this week, but it's basically holding your own, doing your job and funneling the ball carrier to the middle of the field. A week after a heart attack, Iowa's rehabbed nicely here against an Illinois team that was down to O-linemen. When you hear Iowa players talk leverage, it's keeping their outside shoulder clear, constricting gaps and filling alleys. That's what you didn't see at Minnesota. If Iowa doesn't play its best team defense since . . . maybe Nebraska or Michigan last year . . . it will lose to Wisconsin and the championship portion of the season will be over. It will go from playing for a spot in Indy to playing to maybe go to the San Francisco bowl. It also will be part of Gordon's Heisman reel. Iowa doesn't want that. It's already a pretty big portion of Minnesota's 2014 season highlights and Indy RB Tevin Coleman's NFL draft tape. Don't become a highlight tape. It's not a rallying cry you'd throw on a T-shirt, but it's reality this week.

FILM ROOM

Goal line

— I'm not going to hammer away on this, but, yes, Iowa did get stopped on four plays inside of Illinois' 8-yard line.

Let's brush up on what Wisconsin's defense has done to this point: It's the No. 1 defense in the nation, allowing just 244 yards a game. Barring disaster, coordinator Dave Aranda's group will finish No. 1 in the nation in total defense. You get that Wisconsin is No. 1 in the nation in total defense. OK, perhaps I went overboard with that.

First down for the Hawkeyes was great. Weisman ran right for a gain of 5 yards. Second down, Weisman probably should've scored. He had a lane but was tripped up in the hole and fell short for 1 yard.

Are they sweating on third-and-goal from the 2? Probably not. You know they're going for it. This was Weisman inside left for a gain of 1. The backside blocking wasn't there, with center Tommy Gaul and tackle Andrew Donnal missing on reach blocks and allowing their defenders to clean up at the point of attack. This one ended up with Weisman trying to power squat a pile and it was reviewed. No TD and on to fourth down. (I didn't think it was a TD, at least not enough on replay to change the call on the field.)

OK, fourth-and-1 and it's sweaty time. This was the first drive of the game, so no one was panicking, but still, point of pride here.

Iowa's OL blocked down and no one accounted for WLB Mason Monheim, who ended up with 15 tackles (!!!!). He crossed Donnal's face and sliced down Weisman for no gain. Donnal seemed to get tied up with noseguard Austin Teitsma and turned his head enough to open the door for Monheim (credit where credit is due, this guy checked in Saturday).

Why am I even bringing this up? This happens against Wisconsin and it's going to leave a mark.

TWO PLAYS

1. Couple of third down conversions through the air

— Third-and-4 from Iowa's 35 early in the third quarter. Iowa leads just 9-7 at this point and you kind of feel like the offense is ketchup in a bottle.

From an 11 personnel, Iowa ran a pretty perfect little play that iso'd Monheim (sorry, I loved your effort on the goal line). Kevonte Martin-Manley ran a shallow cross from the left slot into the short side of the field. Running back Damon Bullock timed a shallow cross in the opposite direction. Both ran in front of Monheim about the same time and totally froze him in his tracks. No one went with KMM who was wide open in the flat for a 17-yard gain. The drive ended with a 6-yard TD pass to TE Ray Hamilton.

Tight ends have to really matter vs. Wisconsin, a 3-4 defense, just as they did against Illinois. Maybe more.

Third-and-3 from Illinois' 44. Iowa is again in 11 personnel. WR Tevaun Smith has corner V'Angelo Bentley across from him in tight man press. Smith gets inside position and clears on a post. QB Jake Rudock fits the ball between Bentley and nickel safety Clayton Fejeldelem for 21 yards and a first down at Illinois' 23. Three plays later, Rudock bootlegs in from 6 yards and it's 23-7 and essentially over.

2. It was so pretty

— I'm not engaging in QB C.J. Beathard discussion this week. I don't know where else to to with the topic. The door is shut, there could be a consequence to it, but right now, Iowa has a whale on its line. No more. I'm out this week on that topic.

I will say this: That 19-yard throw-and-catch from Beathard to Damond Powell in the fourth quarter (it was the next drive, after Iowa took a 23-7 lead with 13:41 left in the game) was so gorgeous. Bentley was in man press on Powell, who ran a go route and cleared for the most part. Bentley turned his back on CJB and . . . zoomp . . . put the ball where Powell could make a play. Powell made a beautiful play, stayed in bounds and Iowa was in the free and clear on this one.

Beautiful play. BTW, CJB finished 3 of 3 for 73 yards and a TD (a pass efficiency of 414.4). No more. Whale on the line.

UP NEXT — No. 15 WISCONSIN (8-2, 5-1)

— Kickoff is 2:30 on ABC. The game reverse mirrors to areas outside the region on ESPN2. As far as I can tell, it's Iowa's first ABC 2:30 since Ohio State last season.

— Melvin Gordon

— Vince Biegel? Yes, Vince Biegel.

— Rob Havenstein, or I should say ROBBBBBBBBBBBB HAVENSTEINNNNNNNN

— Melvin Gordon from the Nebraska POV

THE NUMBERS GAME

Touchdowns in the red zone

Iowa

— 4 of 6

Illinois

— 0 of 0

Tracking the Hawkeyes

: Week 1 vs. UNI — 4 of 6 (off), 3 of 3 (def); Week 2 vs. BSU — 2 of 6 (off), 1 of 2 (def); Week 3 vs. ISU — 2 of 2 (off), 1 of 2 (def); Week 4 vs. Pitt — 3 of 3 (off), 2 of 4 (def); Week 5 at Purdue — 2 of 5 (off), 0-1 (def); Week 6 vs. Indiana — 3 of 4 (off), 1 of 2 (def); Week 7 at Maryland — 4 of 5 (off), 2 of 3 (def); week 8 vs. Northwestern — 4 of 5 (off), 1 of 2 (def); week 9 at Minnesota — 1 of 1 (off), 6 of 7 (def)

The takeaway

: Winning numbers. Can Iowa afford to leave any points on the Kinnick turf this week. Newp.

3 and outs (forced by defense)

Iowa

— 5

Illinois

— 2

Tracking the Hawkeyes

: Week 1 vs. UNI — 3 (off), 3 (def); Week 2 vs. BSU — 5 (def), 3 (off); Week 3 vs. ISU — 2 (def), 3 (off); Week 4 vs. Pitt — 0 (off) 2 (def); Week 5 at Purdue — 7 (def), 6 (off); Week 6 vs. Indiana — 8 (def), 6 (off); Week 7 at Maryland — 8 (def), 10 (off); Week 8 vs. Northwestern — 5 (def), 0 (off); week 9 at Minnesota — 2 (def), 6 (off)

The takeaway

: Iowa's start was terrible, but the offense finished with three TD drives before the victory formation. Illinois had two double-digit drives. One came in garbage time and the other was 11 plays for 42 yards and died on Iowa's 37.

Second half adjustments

Iowa

— 293 yards, 7.3 yards per play (40 plays)

Illinois

— 127 yards, 4.5 yards per play (28 plays)

Tracking the Hawkeyes

: Week 1 vs. UNI — 190 yards, 5.93 yards per play (32 offensive plays), 199 yards, 5.68 yards per play (35 plays on defense); Week 2 vs. BSU — 247 yards, 5.61 yards per play (44 plays on offense), 128 yards, 3.55 yards per play (30 plays on defense); Week 3 vs. ISU — 102 yards, 3.64 yards per play (28 plays on offense), 190 yards, 5.27 yards per play (36 plays on defense); Week 4 vs. Pitt — 183 yards, 5.90 yards per play (31 plays on offense), 173 yards, 5.40 yards per play (32 plays on defense); Week 5 at Purdue — 284 yards, 5.65 yards per play (50 plays on offense), 56 yards, 1.86 yards per play (30 plays on defense); Week 6 vs. Indiana — 126 yards, 3.6 yards per play (35 plays on offense), 185 yards, 5.78 yards per play (32 plays on defense); Week 7 at Maryland — 263 yards, 4.78 yards per play (55 plays on offense), 172 yards, 4.77 yards per play (36 plays on defense); Week 8 vs. Northwestern — 185 yards, 5.78 yards per play (32 plays off), 125 yards, 3.47 yards per play (36 plays def); week 10 at Minnesota — 90 yards, 3.75 yards per play (24 plays offense), 176 yards, 4.75 yards per play (37 plays defense)

The takeaway

: How do you go 39 plays and 294 yards and score just seven points? You saw Iowa's first half. Fumbles, goal-line stand and the art of not finishing, specifically 0-for-2 on fourth down in the half. Most yardage of the year in the second half. A total about face and very impressive.

20-plus plays

Iowa

— 9

Illinois

— 2

Tracking the Hawkeyes:

Week 1 vs. UNI — 3 (off), 7 (allowed); Week 2 vs. BSU — 1 (off), 1 (def); Week 3 vs. ISU — 1 (off), 3 (def); Week 4 vs. Pitt — 2 (off), 7 (def); Week 5 at Purdue 4 (off), 1 (def); Week 6 vs Indiana — 4 (off), 5 (def); Week 7 at Maryland — 4 (off), 5 (def); Week 8 vs. Northwestern — 7 (off), 1 (def); week 10 at Minnesota — 4 (off), 4 (def)

The takeaway

: Big plays abound. TE Jake Duzey had receptions of 44 and 53 yards. Iowa had five rushes of 20-plus, including two from Weisman. It also had four more rushes of 12-plus yards. Illinois had two 31-yard TDs. The first was a great play from Wes Lunt to Mike Dudek, who made a highlight catch and stayed in bounds against defense that cornerback Desmond King probably couldn't have played anymore closely.

The Iowa/Greg Davis definition of explosive (it's 12-plus runs and 16-plus passes)

: 16 (Indiana 4, Purdue 13, UNI 6, BSU 6, ISU 1, Pitt 4, Maryland 10, Northwestern 13, Minnesota 6)

Magic points (scores inside of two minutes)

Iowa

— 0

Illinois

— 0

Tracking the Hawkeyes

: Week 1 vs. UNI — 3 (off), 0 (allowed); Week 2 vs. BSU — 7 (off), 0 (allowed) Week 3 vs. ISU — 0 (off), 3 (allowed); Week 4 vs. Pitt — 0 (off), 3 (def); Week 5 at Purdue — 3 (off), 0 (def); Week 6 vs. Indiana — 7 (off), 0 (def); Week 7 at Maryland — 3 (off), 0 (def); Week 8 vs. Northwestern — 7 (off), 0 (def); week 9 at Minnesota — 7 (off), 7 (def)

The takeaway

: Iowa came close with Koehn's 46-yarder hitting the right upright. Really, nothing to see here.

Short yardage (converted second-5 and third-5)

Iowa

— 12 of 22

Illinois

— 6 of 9

Tracking the Hawkeyes

: Week 1 vs. UNI — 9 of 15 (off), 5 of 10 (def); Week 2 vs. BSU — 9 of 13 (off), 5 of 7 (def); Week 3 vs. ISU: 14 of 19 (off), 10 of 14 (def); Week 4 vs. Pitt — 10 of 17 (off), 8 of 15 (def); Week 5 at Purdue — 8 of 18 (off), 7 of 18 (def); Week 6 vs. Indiana — 3 of 14 (off), 3 of 9 (def); Week 7 at Maryland — 10 of 17 (off), 8 of 10 (def); Week 8 vs. Northwestern — 7 of 12 (off), 9 of 11 (def); week 9 at Minnesota — 6 of 11 (off), 13 of 21 (def)

The takeaway:

One thing about this number, it's better to have more than less no matter your percentage. Rudock passed for first downs out of five third-and-shorts, including a pair of TD passes to Hamilton. That's good playcalling.

Disruption numbers (number of TFLs/sacks, QB hurries, passes defended and turnovers divided by total number of opponent plays)

Iowa

— 7.0 TFL/sacks (1.0 sacks), 2 PBU, 1 QBH, 1 FF, 0 FR, = 11 divided into 56 = 19.6 percent

Illinois

— 3 TFL/sacks (0 sacks), 1 FF, 1 FR, 0 QBH, 3 PBU = 8 divided into 79 = 10.1 percent

Tracking the Hawkeyes

: Week 1 vs. UNI — 14.2 percent (off), 29 percent (def); Week 2 vs. BSU — 18 percent (def), 18 percent (vs. off); Week 3 vs. ISU — 17 percent (def), 22 percent (vs. off); Week 4 vs. Pitt — 16.7 percent (def), 11.3 percent (vs. off); Week 5 at Purdue — 19.1 percent (def), 15.9 percent (off); Week 6 vs. Indiana — 23.3 percent (def), 14.4 percent (off); Week 7 at Maryland — 20.2 percent (def), 28.7 percent (off); Week 8 vs. Northwestern — 31.3 percent (def), 14.0 percent (off); week 9 at Minnesota — 4.1 percent (def), 51.7 percent (off)

The takeaway

: Here's what I wrote last week: These are the worst numbers of the season. Brutal. Atrocious. Ridiculous. Iowa had 29 plays disrupted at Minnesota last week. That's helmet stickers being tossed like candy at a parade. Better this week, but Illinois has a lot of work to do on defense. If there's a new coach, that's a fixer upper. Three defensive backs had tackles for loss. After Minnesota, aggression was turned up. They'll need to turn it up to 11 this week.

l Comments: (319) 398-8256; marc.morehouse@thegazette.com