The Fast Break(down): UNI hoops vs Evansville

When Northern Iowa reached a few peak moments on Sunday — specifically when a defensive stand led to a post move and score from Bennett Koch — the McLeod Center crowd reacted like it had seen an old friend. The Panthers (12-11, 4-6 Missouri Valley Conference) followed the template they used en route to 31 wins in 2014-15.

Maybe it's not something that is sustainable, but it was a reminder of what Coach Ben Jacobson has made work most often in the past. The bulk of the talent remains on the outside for this team, and no one is denying that. But with Evansville (18-5, 7-3) in town, going big again might even be a necessity, given what the Aces roll out in the post.

Here's a breakdown of the matchup between the two teams:

Key player

Northern Iowa:

Jeremy Morgan, guard — He's not had a great run of games offensively, but that's not shocking given the fall he took a couple weeks ago and the tape that still adorns his right wrist. But he'll likely get primary responsibility of guarding DJ Balentine — a guy who is undeniably one of the top guards in the MVC. Morgan is gifted defensively, but he'll have to stay out of foul trouble to use that ability for the Panthers. Evansville's inside-outside game has been strong (see below) and Morgan is more equipped to limit the outside than the reverse.

Evansville:

Egidijus Mockevicius, forward — His effectiveness was addressed Monday by Jacobson and there's no doubt it's on the UNI coaching staff's mind. As important as Balentine is and as often as the Aces use the senior guard, Big Mock is the catalyst for Evansville. UNI has the guards to either contain or neutralize Balentine. It remains to be seen if Bennett Koch, Klint Carlson and Ted Friedman's recent run of improvement can be sustained against a guy who grabs 14 rebounds per game. If Mockevicius can run the paint, it could be a long night for the Panthers.

Strengths

Northern Iowa:

In the back-to-back wins, what UNI has used as a strength has alternated. Against Bradley, it was guard play and a (very, very) hot hand from Paul Jesperson. That hot hand was cold against Southern Illinois, but that's where Koch came in. Koch has not had back-to-back games in which he simultaneously was on his game offensively and stayed out of foul trouble. Mockevicius being the guy he has to guard doesn't necessarily bode well for those prospects.

But what UNI has done very well is improve in its defensive principles. Guys are in the spots they need to be of late, and in the last week have largely stayed out of foul trouble. UNI ranks fifth in the country on KenPom in free throw rate (FTA/FGA), which translates into keeping opposing teams off the free throw line. If they don't shoot them, they can't make them. Riding the wave of renewed defensive intensity is the key against Evansville.

Evansville:

The Aces do a ton of things well, which makes it no coincidence they have 18 wins and are on pace for 24 by the end of the regular season. What got them to this point has been an inside-outside game that many teams haven't been able to answer. Balentine averages 21.2 points per game to lead all scorers in the Valley, and has an effective field goal percentage of 52.3 percent. When he isn't scoring outside, Jaylon Brown is — which is a change from last season. Mockevicius does his thing on the inside, averaging 16.7 per game to go with his 14.1 rebounds. And if teams miss against the Aces defensively, there's very little chance they get the offensive rebound, with Big Mock leading the country in defensive rebounding percentage.

Most of all, the Aces are efficient (1.091 points per possession) and their shot selection is very good (56.1 percent eFG). Experience has manifested itself in a big way for Evansville.

Weaknesses

Northern Iowa:

As stated above, what UNI has relied on has flip-flopped in recent games. Inconsistency remains an issue, though clearly not as much of one when at least one facet of its game is on point. During the run of losses, both offense and defense were down at the same time.

What's been interesting to watch is the decision-making UNI has shown to certain sets. In six straight possessions at one point of the first half against Southern Illinois, the Panthers ran the high ball screen and a Saluki defender sniffed it out immediately, denied Wes Washpun's dribble around and forced UNI to reset. They also didn't go to Koch consistently until they were down 10. The quickness with which they realize what's working hasn't been great, even in the wins.

Evansville:

The Aces have great players who lead them, and have gotten many more contributions from Brown at point guard. But beyond that, the contributions aren't super deep. Granted, they haven't had to be at many points this season, but in the games they've lost, Balentine has been neutralized. If Mockevicius is worked into foul trouble by the UNI big men, there's not a great answer otherwise. Evansville has more size, but effective size is just a big body on the floor (see: Drake).

The Aces also have shown a propensity for turning the ball over in conference play. Through 10 MVC games, Evansville is averaging 14.1 turnovers. UNI has an opportunity to use Washpun and Morgan's defensive and transition skills on Wednesday.

Northern Iowa wins if …

its recent run of defense continues, and Mockevicius doesn't have his way in the post. Koch, Klint Carlson and Ted Friedman have a big responsibility, as do the guards, in taking away what Evansville does so well. If one of those two aren't effective, and at least one of UNI's is, the Panthers have a good chance to get a third straight win before going on the road to Drake.

Evansville wins if …

Koch gets caught in foul trouble and on-ball defending relaxes. It's been mentioned here in nearly every section: limit Evansville's inside-outside game and get the ball out of its two leaders' hands, and UNI is in good shape. The Aces have been able to keep one going in so many wins this season. Their balance is good, and if it stays that way, they'll leave McLeod with a win.

l Comments: (319) 368-8884; jeremiah.davis@thegazette.com