Why is Donald Trump still on top?

The mystery of Donald Trump's staying power in the polls is much more complex than the mainstream media and establishment Republican gurus know. Dismissed as 'a summer fling,” Trump has stayed fairly constant in the polls competing with Dr. Ben Carson, another 'incomprehensible” front-runner.

I've always argued, only to be mocked by colleagues and media people, that Trump is connecting with millions of Americans on some deeper level than simply his flamboyance and provocative forays into areas such as immigration and the failures of traditional politicians.

The Washington Post's Max Ehrenfreund wrote an interesting article in his WonkBlog titled, 'I asked psychologists to analyze Trump supporters.” He writes:

'Interviews with psychologists and other experts suggest one explanation for the [Trump's] success - and for the collective failure to anticipate it: The political elite hasn't confronted a few fundamental, universal and uncomfortable facts about the human mind.

'We like people who talk big.

'We like people who tell us that our problems are simple and easy to solve, even when they aren't.

'And we don't like people who don't look like us.”

The article is interesting because it cites numerous researchers who explain how humans think and behave, often subconsciously, and how that may have an impact on politics and our relationships with political candidates.

Of course Trump also has connected with voters for other reasons, as Ehrenfreund avers:

1. 'The nostalgia he so skillfully evokes,” for a time when there were plentiful and high paying jobs and we made things in the United States instead of simply becoming a shopping center for Chinese goods.

2. 'His financial independence from special interests,” which is something none of the other presidential candidates of either party can claim.

3. 'The crucial fact that he had his own reality TV show,” because they are used to Trump being - well - Trump, and they enjoy the disrespectful and bombastic personality that he created.

4. 'His anti-establishment approach,” or at least the political outsider aspect of that. Bobby Jindal could rage about firing everyone in Washington and Ted Cruz can insult and disrespect the senior leadership in the Senate, but he is hardly an outsider.

5. 'His substantive positions on illegal immigration, his antipathy toward China, his defense of Social Security, or his opposition to tax deductions for wealthy bankers.”

Another very fascinating insight into the Trump avalanche is William Galston's piece in the Wall Street Journal, 'Trump Rides a Blue-Collar Wave.”

Citing an in-depth survey by Public Religion Research Institute and the Brookings Institution he concludes that, 'Mr. Trump is the staunchest champion of the white working class that American politics has seen in decades.”

The survey also finds that, 'Among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, 39 percent of the white working class backs Mr. Trump, twice his share of white college-educated voters. Fifty-five percent of his supporters are white working class, compared with 35 percent for the rest of the Republican field and only 32 percent for Mr. Carson.”

The survey is chock full of good data which I don't have space here to share so you may read it for yourself. Suffice it to say that Trump has a classic 'populist” connection with a large segment of voters of both parties. This strongly suggests that he has much more staying power than conventional wisdom suggests. He is also not likely to change his style because that, too, is very appealing to his constituency. Above all he is not politically correct and that has huge appeal for many Americans.

The take-away is that we are living an intense and tense moment with many people panicked about terrorism. It's important to point out that according to intelligence reports I just reviewed this morning the Paris attacks were carried out by radicalized Europeans, not by women and children seeking some peace and safety and fleeing the terrible massacres in Syria. As one U.S. intel operative said, our biggest threat is from Americans committing acts of violence and terrorism. And those are the hardest to flush out.

Nonetheless Donald Trump has real and lasting appeal for many Americans who are discouraged and frightened by the disappearance of the certainties for which they long - secure jobs, a consensus on values issues, and undisputed American pre-eminence in the world.

' Steffen Schmidt is Professor of Political Science at Iowa State University and CEO of SEAS LLC consulting. Comments: Steffenschmidt2005@gmail.com