2-Minute Drill: Iowa Hawkeyes at Michigan State Spartans

In a college football world of sleeping over at recruits' houses and that guy in the Dr Pepper commercial, come to Kirk Ferentz and Mark Dantonio for cold, clear-eyed pragmatism.

Iowa and Michigan State are programs that absolutely have to push through what they aren't and completely embrace what they are. That's not easy and the path isn't always a straight line and that's kind of where the programs will be Saturday when they meet at Spartan Stadium.

The Spartans are digging out of last year's 3-9, a deceptive record for a team that held a lead in a huge chunk of games. Iowa is somewhere between the team that pushed No. 4 Penn State to the final play of the game last week and the team that vanished in the Outback Bowl in January.

You will see blocking and tackling Saturday. You will see might on might, good on good. Maybe someone breaks, but probably not.

This won't be postmodern football. You can leave the S&P ratings at the door. A Michigan State or Iowa tattooed arm would just put it in a headlock anyway.

This is Big Ten realism and, no, it might not be pretty and it might not be for everyone.

Kickoff is 3 p.m. and the game is on FOX.

Michigan State rush defense vs. Iowa rush offense

The Spartans appear to be approaching standard on defense. It's a young group. MSU starts three sophomores on the defensive line (DE Kenny Willekes and DTs Mike Panasiuk and Raequan Williams). Overall, the Spartans start five sophomores and a true freshman.

Michigan State plays a 4-3 defense and mostly quarters coverage, with safeties eyeing the line of scrimmage and seamlessly playing aggressive run defense. The Spartans allow 121.7 yards a game on the ground. They held Western Michigan to 116 yards a week after the Broncos gained 263 at USC and while Notre Dame ran for 182 yards, that was a week after the Irish rolled up more than 500 at Boston College.

Iowa's rush attack is struggling to get to 4 yards a carry (3.79). This part of Iowa's offense has had its share of woe, with injuries keeping the offensive line jumbled and out of sync. Also, Iowa's passing game hasn't scared anyone.

At this point, in this type of game, the question is does Iowa have to pass to open up the running game?

This is the game. Going back to 2015, Iowa is 0-7 when it fails to rush for 100 yards. Over the same period, Michigan State is 9-1 when it holds opponents to less than 100 yards.

Advantage: Push

Michigan State pass defense vs. Iowa pass offense

When the Spartans really had it rolling in 2013-15, they were among the Big Ten leaders in sacks. They had 32 in 2013, 42 in '14 and 37 in 2015. All top three finishes in the Big Ten. The pressure MSU was able to generate with its front four helped make it a force in the league.

Last year, MSU was last in the league with 11.0 sacks. Things seem to be trending up. The Spartans already have 6.0 sacks this year. Linebacker Chris Frey leads with 2.5.

Michigan State has the other end of pass defense covered. It leads the league with just 132.3 yards allowed per game (seventh in the nation). Quarterbacks have completed just 46.2 percent against MSU, tied for sixth in the nation. True freshman corner Josiah Scott has impressed in the early going.

September 27, 2017

pic.twitter.com/j0ZpxBkHAV

— PFF College Football (@PFF_College)

It's hard to expect more from Iowa's passing game. Sophomore Nate Stanley is a first-year starting quarterback. Receivers Nick Easley and Ihmir Smith-Marsette are first-year players. Tight ends Noah Fant and T.J. Hockenson are first-year starters.

There's so much newness to Iowa's passing game. You have to expect inconsistency, but it also has to hold up its end of the bargain, especially now that the competitive bar is going up.

Can first-year offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz put more on Stanley's plate? With the running game not performing to standard, he might have to.

Advantage: Michigan State

Michigan State rush offense vs. Iowa rush defense

Michigan State is getting it done on the ground. The Spartans average 220.7 rushing yards (fourth in the league) and are sitting at a very respectable 5.21 yards per carry. The numbers are, however, coming unconventionally.

Quarterback Brian Lewerke leads MSU with 206 yards on 26 carries (7.92 per carry, including a 52-yarder last week against Notre Dame). This is not how you expected Michigan State's rush attack to look. Running back L.J. Scott probably ends up being MSU's top rusher, but key fumbles the last few weeks have raised eyebrows. Still, Scott and fellow running backs Gerald Holmes and Madre London have combined for 3,703 yards and 37 rush TDs in their careers (and, yes, all three running backs played in the 2015 Big Ten title game).

Michigan State's O-line, led by senior center Brian Allen, does start a pair of sophomores on the left side. How much does winning the rush matchup mean to MSU? Under head coach Mark Dantonio, the Spartans are 75-16 (.824) when outrushing their opponent.

You loved the effort from the Hawkeyes' defense against Penn State. How couldn't you? You probably feel better about Iowa's defense after a game in which it allowed 579 yards.

How much did that take out of Iowa's front seven? Yes, Jewell and linebacker Ben Niemann played 100 snaps, but the most snaps any D-lineman played was Anthony Nelson and 67. There might be some gas in the tank.

Advantage: Push

Michigan State pass offense vs. Iowa pass defense

The Spartans have something in Lewerke, a 6-3, 212-pounder from Phoenix, Ariz. We've been over that he leads the Spartans in rushing. He also leads the Big Ten in total offense (319.0 yards per game and for point of reference, Iowa's offense averages 367.0 yards a game).

Lewerke is a first-year starter. MSU fell behind last week against Notre Dame because of turnovers (a real issue for this offense), so it was an air show fairly early for MSU, with Lewerke completing 31 of 51 for 340 yards, two TDs and an interception.

That turnover thing? Through three games, the Spartans have fumbled the ball away six times and thrown a pair of interceptions. They rank 125th in the nation in turnover margin. The Spartans have playmakers, but to this point, ball security has negated much of it.

Oh... oh no, Sparty... September 24, 2017

Oh... oh no, Sparty... pic.twitter.com/xfRX8goUyz

— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX)

Sophomore Darrell Stewart leads MSU with 15 catches for 159 yards and a TD.

The Hawkeyes' pass rush came alive last week vs. Penn State, racking up 4.0 sacks. DE Anthony Nelson had 2.5 of those, his best game of 2017. You saw true freshman DE A.J. Epenesa. He played 39 snaps last week and had four QB hurries and a QB hit. Expect his snap count to grow and the mayhem that has gone along with those snaps.

Every member of Iowa's secondary played 100 snaps against Penn State. This might not be a huge deal. Iowa defensive coordinator Phil Parker has called a lot of nickel and dime so far this season, so the secondary depth has grown so far this year.

The last play had to sting this group. It has no choice but to wipe that off.

Advantage: Push

Special teams

Michigan State has a new field goal kicker in freshman Matt Coghlin. He hit his first career kick last week, a 40-yarder.

Spartans' punter Jake Hartbarger is one of the best in the Big Ten. He averages 44.8 yards per punt (third in the league) and ripped a 57-yarder last week against the Fighting Irish.

Stewart is MSU's main return threat. At 25.3 per kick return, he's fifth in the Big Ten. Michigan State is last in the Big Ten in kick coverage, allowing 29.7 per return.

Iowa's punt and kick return units are ranked No. 2 and 3 in the league, respectively.

Sophomore punter Colten Rastetter averages 40.3 yards an attempt (10th in the B1G). Iowa has had just two punts returned against it this season. Ferentz isn't looking to make a change.

'Overall productivity has been pretty good,' Ferentz said. 'I'd like to see more consistency there for sure. When he hits them well, he really hits them well. His rugby punt has been good, placement has been pretty good for the most part. So, I think we're doing OK.'

Advantage: Iowa

Intangibles

1. What are your thoughts on next week's game against Michigan, being a night game for the first time ever? — This was a question for Dantonio during his weekly news conference. On Iowa week, the Michigan State coach was asked for his thoughts on next week's Michigan game and it being played at night for the first time ever.

Dantonio couldn't run past this fast enough.

2. Emotional gas tank — On one hand, Iowa was one play from beating No. 4 Penn State. It had to rip out the Hawkeyes' guts in the moment. On the other hand, there is a lot of youth on this team. Half of them probably had no idea where Penn State was ranked and just want to get on to the next test.

3. Is Iowa fighting for its Big Ten West Division life Saturday? — Isn't it a little early for that question? Well, the Hawkeyes are 0-1 in the league and on the road Saturday playing against a mirror team that has ranked, roughly, 30 spots ahead of them in Rivals recruiting rankings from 2013 through 2017.

This is Iowa's second consecutive matchup against a top-tier Big Ten East team with Ohio State yet to come. Wisconsin plays host to Northwestern Saturday. Its East Division crossovers are Maryland, at Indiana and Michigan.

If Iowa ends the day 0-2 in the B1G, no, it's not over, but the Hawkeyes would need Wisconsin to come back to them.

Iowa-Michigan State prediction

Michigan State will win if ... it takes care of the football. Turnovers crumpled a solid performance against Notre Dame. The Spartans have shown they can move the ball and play defense. They might not be good enough to overcome turnovers.

Iowa will win if ... it rushes for 200 yards. Or if Stanley passes for 400. Something not only has to work for Iowa's offense Saturday, it has to be a solid, go-to, consistent threat. Whatever it is. This team can't live off crumbs of offense, even though it almost did last week.

Prediction: Michigan State 20, Iowa 19

l Comments: (319) 398-8256; marc.morehouse@thegazette.com