UNI football opponent breakdown: Indiana State

It's two down, three to go for the Northern Iowa football team in the Panthers' quest for a possible second straight at-large FCS Playoff berth. At this point of the season, time is running out for everyone, but this week's matchup at the UNI-Dome sees Indiana State come to town in almost the exact same situation as UNI.

Both teams are 4-4 overall and 2-3 in the Missouri Valley Football Conference. Both have losses on their record that probably should've been wins, and both have played the conference's best extremely close. Both lost winnable games to North Dakota State and Illinois State. The only difference for Saturday is UNI comes in on a two-game win streak, where INS enters having lost two straight. A contrast in styles should make for another close game on Saturday. The winner is still alive for a playoff berth. The loser almost surely will have to wait another year.

Each week we'll have the Panthers' opponents schedule and results, its offensive and defensive outlook, highlight key players and offer a prediction with the help of a beat writer for the opposing team. This week it's Todd Golden, who covers Indiana State for the Tribune-Star in Terre Haute, Ind.

INDIANA STATE SCHEDULE/RESULTS

Sept. 5 vs Butler, W, 52-17

Sept. 12 at Purdue, L, 38-14

Sept. 19 vs Southeast Missouri State, W, 29-28

Oct. 3 at Missouri State, W, 56-28

Oct. 10 at No. 8/9 South Dakota State, L, 24-7

Oct. 17 vs Southern Illinois, W, 39-36

Oct. 24 vs No. 8 North Dakota State, L, 28-14

Oct. 31 at No. 3 Illinois State, L, 27-24

Nov. 7 at No. 17/20 UNI

Nov. 14 vs Western Illinois

Nov. 21 vs No. 21 Youngstown State

OFFENSIVE OUTLOOK

It's not so much that Indiana State lines up in odd or unique formations; it's how it uses its spread and power formations in a unique way.

The Sycamores deploy quarterback Matt Adam and running backs Lemonte Booker and Roland Genesy in a variety of looks to keep defenses guessing and chasing. Play selection is very evenly split (300 runs this season to 250 passes) so it's not as though they rely on one asset to the offense more than the other, either. Reverses, double passes and well-disguised play-action has littered Indiana State's season so far. INS Coach Mike Sanford was called 'very inventive' by UNI Coach Mark Farley on Monday, and that's got to be considered a high compliment coming from a defensive-minded coach.

Because the Sycamores use so many different tools on offense, it makes the opposition plan for many more things, therefore spreading the plan thin. Booker and Genesy both have 79 carries this season, with Booker at 410 yards (5.2 ypc) and Genesy with 404 (5.1 ypc). Adam averages 4.1 per carry, too, even after having been sacked 31 times this season – at least twice in every game. Even in the passing game, Adam has found Gary Owens for 30 catches and 490 yards and Robert Tonyan for 29 catches and 413 yards. Balance is the goal of almost every offense, and INS has found it.

From Golden on Indiana State's offensive outlook:

'ISU is led by sophomore quarterback Matt Adam. He's had a typical underclassmen-style season -- some ups, some downs. ISU uses two running backs, LeMonte Booker and Roland Genesy. Booker is a north-south runner, Genesy is a power back. Wide receivers Gary Owens and Robert Tonyan are two of the best in the MVFC. The offensive line has been inconsistent in both pass protection and opening holes for the running game.'

DEFENSIVE OUTLOOK

There's no clear calling card for the INS defense this year, and much of that can be owed to injuries to some key players – as well as, you know, playing very good offensive teams. But despite allowing 202.9 rushing yards per game and 220.8 passing yards per game, the Sycamores have forced 14 turnovers in eight games.

UNI's Farley mentioned Monday his respect for how creative the INS defense is. The base 4-3 scheme runs in an aggressive manner. The Sycamores run a variety of blitz packages, and within those packages are disguises and angles teams don't normally deploy when attacking an offense. That pressure, then, adds to the effectiveness of their secondary, which has nine interceptions this season.

Like the offense, the defense is well-balanced in terms of production. Among the top 10 tacklers, four are defensive backs, four are linebackers and two are defensive linemen. They share the load, and no one player is asked to do everything. The injuries the Sycamores have dealt with, again, fuel some of that, but several young players have stepped into more prominent roles and have risen to that occasion – junior Jameer Thurman chief among them. He leads the team in tackles with 59, and also has two interceptions. His presence and performance have been crucial given standout linebacker Connor Underwood has missed three games.

From Golden on Indiana State's defensive outlook:

'ISU had 10 returning starters coming back this season, but injuries have sapped depth. All-American OLB Connor Underwood has missed three games and was limited against Illinois State a week ago. He should play more Saturday. Also missing is All-MVFC safety Mark Sewall, who has a broken ankle. Those are just the two most major injuries. Nearly every player has had some sort of ailment that has cost them snaps.'

KEY PLAYERS

Connor Underwood, LB – The All-American has seen a fragmented season, but when he's been on the field for the Sycamores, he's been more than effective. He's got a team-high three sacks and 5.5 tackles for loss in five games this season. Even if not 100 percent healthy, opposing coaches are forced to game plan for him. Farley mentioned him more than once Monday as someone his offense has to account for. He's a player responsible for (and highly capable of) containing Aaron Bailey.

Matt Adam, QB – Adam is just a sophomore, but despite that youth has stepped into a leadership role and responded well in kind. He's got a 57.3 percent completion this season, throwing for 1,580 yards, 17 touchdowns and just five interceptions. He's also only fumbled twice (one lost) all season, despite dropping back 234 times and rushing 93 more. Adam's feet (and the read-option) carry him much like Bailey's do, so UNI will have a similar test to the one they face in practice.

Golden on Indiana State's key players:

'Matt Adam and Connor Underwood are both huge for Indiana State. UNI's passing game has been pedestrian, and if Underwood can cause havoc with pressure, it will make it even harder for the Panthers. UNI's defense is a tougher nut to crack, but if Adam can strike the right balance between his running game and keep ISU's passing game viable, the Sycamores can be hard to stop.'

PREDICTION

These two teams are very similar in many ways. They have quarterbacks who run well and offenses that have seen success but can improve. They both have aggressive defenses that force turnovers and attack the opposing quarterback with speed and precision. What this one comes down to is how the two teams are trending. UNI is getting healthy and the defense is playing as well as it has all season. INS is still battling injuries and – like what happened to UNI – could be facing a crisis of confidence after losses in winnable games to Illinois State and North Dakota State. Through all the similarities and having reached this point in the season in much the same way, Saturday's game is a tossup. The Panthers are at home, and at this point in the season, their defense can be trusted just a touch more than the Sycamores. Northern Iowa 26, Indiana State 20.

From Golden:

'ISU hasn't won at the UNI-Dome since 1988 and it's playoffs or bust for both teams. That shouldn't auger well for Indiana State, however, I think the Sycamores match up well with the Panthers. I'm predicting a 24-21 win for the Sycamores.'

l Comments: (319) 368-8884; jeremiah.davis@thegazette.com