New Quinnipiac poll shows Iowa U.S. Senate race dead even

CEDAR RAPIDS - Dead even. Neck-and-neck. Down to the wire.

The Iowa U.S. Senate race is tied at 47 percent for Democrat Bruce Braley and Republican Joni Ernst heading into the last day of voting.

A Quinnipiac University Poll conducted Oct. 28 to Nov. 2 found that Iowans are evenly split on who to send to Congress to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Tom Harkin.

That means it's all a matter of turnout, according to Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll.

'Iowa's U.S. Senate race is a dead heat,” Brown said when the poll was released Monday morning. 'The candidate who best gets his or her folks to the polls is going to win.”

While it's not surprising the race is close, the 47-47 tie is good news for the Braley campaign, which has been tied or behind in more than a dozen recent polls. It also paints a cheerier picture for Democrats than the Iowa Poll released Saturday night, which showed Ernst with her biggest lead - 51 percent to 44 percent among likely voters.

Quinnipiac found independent voters divided 44 to 44 percent. Men favor Ernst 52 to 44 percent. Women favor Braley 51 to 42 percent.

In the Iowa governor's race, Quinnipiac said Democratic state Sen. Jack Hatch has inched loser to GOP Gov. Terry Branstad, who is seeking a sixth term. He now trails 52 percent to 41 percent among likely voters. Branstad led 56 to 37 percent in the Oct. 29 Quinnipiac poll.