Fundraising numbers show statehouse campaign battle lines

DES MOINES — The path to control of the Iowa Senate in 2017 can be found in recently filed statehouse fundraising reports.

The state political parties are devoting resources to legislative election races they believe will be critical in determining which party sets the agenda in the Senate next year.

For a third consecutive election, Democrats go into the campaign controlling the Iowa Senate by the slimmest of margins — 26-24.

And for a third consecutive elections, Republicans will attempt to gain control of the chamber by winning one more seat than Democrats. Should they do so, barring a change in the Republican-controlled House, the GOP would have complete control of the Capitol for at least two years.

Republicans are confident. They believe they have closed the absentee-ballot gap on Democrats, which they believe will minimize the impact of traditionally higher Democratic turnout in presidential election years.

Republicans also think their chances are bolstered by a half-dozen races in which a Senate Democrat is up for re-election in a district with more active registered Republican voters.

'Obviously you expect a Republican chairman to say I think we're going to do this, but the statistics and I think the fundraising shows that we put our money where our mouth is, so to speak,' said Jeff Kaufmann, state chairman of the Republican Party of Iowa.

Because of the large number of registered active no-party voters in the state — they outnumber Republicans and Democrats alike in each of the aforementioned districts — Mike Gronstal, the Democratic Majority Leader of the Iowa Senate, said his campaign team looks not just at voter registration, but historical voting trends, like whether voters in a state legislative district chose Barack Obama or Mitt Romney in 2012.

'There appears to be, over time, a growing number of voters that choose not to ally with either party. So it's really critical how those no-party voters break, and that varies by election season and by district,' Gronstal said. 'We think we've got a very solid shot at keeping the majority in the Senate, and there's two or three seats we think we have an opportunity to pick up.'

By looking at the way the state parties are giving money to Senate candidates, one can plainly see where leaders are drawing the battle lines for this year's campaign.

Cedar Rapids

The Republican Party made its biggest statehouse contribution — nearly $8,000 — the past two years year to Rene Gadelha, a Linn-Mar school board member from Marion who is challenging second-term Democratic incumbent Liz Mathis, of Cedar Rapids.

Theirs is a race in yet another district being represented by a Democrat but in which Republican voters outnumber Democrats.

With that help from the state party, Gadelha has nearly $67,000 in her campaign account.

Mathis, however, has nearly $92,000 in her war chest.

Central Iowa

Another targeted district covers Marshall and Tama counties, plus a small southwest corner of Black Hawk County. There, second-term incumbent Sen. Steve Sodders, a Democrat from State Center, is up for re-election in another district where Republican voters outnumber Democrats.

Sodders's challenger, Republican Jeff Edler, a farmer from State Center, raised a remarkable $36,000 in the first four months of 2016. The state party chipped in more than $3,000.

Sodders had a relatively quiet fundraising period during those months — most of which the Legislature was in session — raising just shy of $5,000. Sodders has more than $15,000 in his campaign account, and the Democratic Party, aware of the importance of his re-election, made nearly $10,000 worth of in-kind contributions to his campaign this year.

Eastern Iowa

One obvious target is a district that includes portions of Scott and Muscatine counties, where first-term Sen. Chris Brase, a Democrat from Muscatine, faces a re-election challenge from Republican Mark Lofgren, a Republican from Muscatine who served two terms in the Iowa House from 2011 to 2014.

Numerous factors make this a likely competitive race: Brase is a freshman legislator, and Lofgren is a known quantity also having served in the Legislature. And active registered Republican voters outnumber active registered Democratic voters in the district, according to May's numbers from the Iowa Secretary of State's office.

No-party voters, as with many Iowa Statehouse districts, represent the largest share in the district.

The money has poured into the district. Brase and Lofgren are sitting on two of the biggest war chests among all statehouse candidates, aside from the leaders. Brase has more than $61,000 in his campaign account, and Lofgren more than $49,000.

The party organizations are getting involved in the Brase-Lofgren race, providing resources to help ensure victory in the critical district.

The Iowa Democratic Party over the past two years has given Brase's campaign more than $20,000 in 'in-kind' contributions, which are donated services or materials instead of cash. The party's in-kind contributions to Brase's campaign were in the form of printing and postage, according to state campaign finance documents.

The Republican Party of Iowa also is involved; it donated nearly $3,800 to Lofgren's campaign this year.

Northern Iowa

Money also has poured into the Northern Iowa district that includes Worth, Mitchell, Floyd, Chickasaw and Howard counties, and portions of Cerro Gordo and Winneshiek, where second-term Sen. Mary Jo Wilhelm, a Democrat from Cresco, will be challenged by Republican Waylon Brown, a farmer and small-business man from St. Ansgar.

Republican voters also outnumber Democrats in this district, which Democrats clearly have made a top priority.

The Iowa Senate Democratic Caucus has made more than $21,000 worth of in-kind contributions to Wilhelm's campaign over the past two years. And she has more than $29,000 cash in her campaign account.

The Republican Party has given more than $5,500 to Brown's campaign.

Cedar Valley

The Cedar Valley could have a couple battleground Senate races, if fundraising is an indicator.

The district that includes portions of Black Hawk, Bremer, Fayette and Buchanan counties is represented by third-term Sen. Brian Schoenjahn, a Democrat from Arlington who will be challenged by Republican Craig Johnson, of Independence. Once again, Republican voters outnumber Democrats in the district.

Schoenjahn has more than $18,000 in his campaign account and Johnson roughly $16,000.

The Democratic Party has contributed made more than $21,000 worth of in-kind contributions to Schoenjahn, and the Republican Party has donated more than $6,500 to Johnson.

The Republican Party also donated nearly $7,000 to Bonnie Sadler, a Republican from Cedar Falls who is running against yet another Democratic incumbent in a district with more Republican voters.

But that's still a drop in the bucket compared to the more than $100,000 in the campaign account of Democratic Sen. Jeff Danielson, who is in his third term representing the Black Hawk County district.