Poll: Trump regains lead, Cruz moves past Carson in Iowa GOP race

CEDAR RAPIDS - Donald Trump has regained the lead with 25 percent of likely Iowa Republican caucus participants in a too-close-to-call race 75 days before the first-in-the-nation caucuses that start the presidential candidate nomination process.

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz has jumped over retired physician Ben Carson for second place in the Quinnipiac University Poll released Tuesday morning. He's the choice of 23 percent compared to Carson's 18 percent.

'Last month, we said it was Dr. Ben Carson's turn in the spotlight,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. 'Today, the spotlight turns to Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas.”

Last month, Carson took the lead from Trump, 28 to 20 percent, reversing the real estate and entertainment mogul's 27 percent to 21 percent lead in September, according to Quinnipiac.

The October poll found Rubio and Cruz rising to 13 and 10 percent, respectively, according to Quinnipiac.

The new poll is similar to Monday's CBS News Battleground Tracker poll that found Cruz jumping over Carson in Iowa into second place behind Trump. The poll showed Trump at 30 percent, Cruz 21, Carson 19 and Rubio fourth at 11 percent. Other candidates were in the single digits.

Quinnipiac's Brown went on to say the GOP race in Iowa has become a two-tiered contest.

'Businessman Donald Trump and neurosurgeon Ben Carson lead on the outsider track, and Sens. Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio lead among party insiders,” Brown said.

Rubio finished fourth in the poll at 13 percent followed by Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul at 5 percent, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush at 4 percent and Carly Fiorina at 3 percent. No other candidate tops 2 percent, with 2 percent undecided.

'The other candidates will need miraculous comebacks to crack the top tier with slightly more than two months before the voting begins,” Brown added.

He also pointed out that winning the Iowa caucuses 'is no guarantee of success elsewhere” as former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and former Sen. Rick Santorum found out in 2008 and 2012, respectively. Despite winning in Iowa, their campaigns faltered as the nomination contest moved to New Hampshire and larger states.

The economy and jobs are the most important issues in deciding who they will support, according to 25 percent of likely GOP caucusgoers. Terrorism and foreign policy were each the top choice for 15 percent with 11 percent citing the federal deficit and 10 percent immigration as their top issues.

Trump can best handle the economy, 49 percent of Republicans say, with 11 percent picking Cruz. Carson, Rubio and Fiorina are the choice of 6 percent each on the economy.

Thirty percent said Trump would do the best job handling terrorism, with 20 percent for Cruz, 10 percent for Rubio and 7 percent for Bush. Carson, Paul and New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie are at 5 percent each.

Cruz was rated best on foreign policy by 24 percent of Republicans with 18 percent for Trump, 15 percent for Rubio and 8 percent for Bush. Carson and Paul are at 6 percent each.

Despite his lead, 23 percent of likely Iowa GOP caucusgoers say 'no way” to Trump - second only to Bush' 23 percent.

Carson still gets the best favorability rating, 79 percent, followed by 73 percent approval for Cruz, 70 percent for Rubio and 59 percent for Trump.

That dovetails with a Gallup Poll Tuesday showing that the first-term senators are closing in on Carson's 49 percent 'most popular” rating. Rubio and Cruz are now at 48 and 45 percent, respectively, in the Gallup poll.

In other findings, Quinnipiac reported:

' Iowa likely Republican caucusgoers oppose allowing Syrian refugees resettle in the U.S. by an 81 to 15 percent margin and 82 percent oppose allowing them into Iowa.

' By a 73 to 22 percent margin, Iowa Republicans support sending U.S. ground troops to fight ISIS in Iraq and Syria and say 83 percent say the U.S. and its allies are losing the fight against ISIS.

' A total of 88 percent of Republicans are 'very worried” or 'somewhat worried” about the possibility of a terrorist attack in the U.S. similar to the attack in Paris.

From Nov. 16-22, Quinnipiac University surveyed 600 likely Iowa Republican caucus participants with a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points. Live interviewers called landlines and cellphones.

For more on the poll, visit www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.