Democrats seek gains in Iowa House

DES MOINES — Republicans have controlled the legislative agenda in the Iowa House since the 2010 GOP wave election.

Will 2016 be another wave that swings the pendulum and allows Democrats to regain control of the chamber?

Going into the Nov. 8 elections, Democrats face a 14-seat deficit — the last session, there were 57 Republicans and 43 Democrats in the House.

But some incumbents in competitive districts are being challenged, and eight GOP retirements could bring competitive open-seat races.

The following are some of the House races most likely to be competitive — three of which include Linn County — and affect whether Democrats chip into Republicans' lead of the chamber.

To get a sense of these key races, included in this analysis are a party breakdown of each district's active registered voters and the result of the 2012 presidential vote for Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney in each district, which helps show the tendency of no-party voters.

DISTRICT 95

Counties: Buchanan, Linn

Incumbent: None

Challengers: Republican Louis Zumbach, Coggon; Democrat Richard Whitehead, Center Point

Registered Democrats: 6,150

Registered Republicans: 6,247

Registered no-party: 7,648

2012 presidential result: Obama by 5 points

On paper, this race is as competitive as it gets. There is no incumbent, the voter registration split is less than 100, and retiring Republican Rep. Quentin Stanerson won his first election in the district in 2012 by a scant 200 votes, or just 1 percentage point. Republicans are making a serious play to keep the seat in GOP hands, spending $125,000 on advertising for Louis Zumbach, the cousin of Iowa Sen. Dan Zumbach.

DISTRICT 68

Counties: Linn

Incumbent: Republican Ken Rizer, Cedar Rapids

Challenger: Democrat Molly Donahue, Cedar Rapids

Registered Democrats: 6,596

Registered Republicans: 6,103

Registered no-party: 7,384

2012 presidential result: Obama by 10 points

Democrats are trying to pick off Rizer, a freshman legislator in a district with more Democrats than Republicans that went for Obama by double digits in 2012. The state Democratic Party has poured almost $59,000 into advertising for Donahue. But Republicans have done their best to protect Rizer, spending nearly $153,000 on advertising for Rizer, who also has raised more than $88,000 on his own.

DISTRICT 67

Counties: Linn

Incumbent: None

Challengers: Republican Ashley Hinson, Marion; Democrat Mark Seidl, Cedar Rapids

Registered Democrats: 5,979

Registered Republicans: 7,059

Registered no-party: 7,341

2012 presidential result: Romney by 0.3 points

Republicans hope to replace retiring former House Speaker Kraig Paulsen with Hinson, a former Cedar Rapids TV news personality. Hinson has raised more than $60,000 on her own — Seidl roughly $22,000 — and Democrats are not spending on this race, which may be a signal they're conceding that this one likely will stay in Republican hands.

DISTRICT 60

Counties: Black Hawk

Incumbent: Republican Walt Rogers, Cedar Falls

Challenger: Democrat Gary Kroeger, Waterloo

Registered Democrats: 6,356

Registered Republicans: 7,349

Registered no-party: 7,460

2012 presidential result: Obama by 1 point

Rogers won comfortably two years ago and by 4 points in 2012, despite Obama carrying the district. Kroeger presents a unique challenge: The former 'Saturday Night Live' cast member is a political outsider in a year that seems to favor such candidates, and he helped bolster his name recognition by briefly running in the Democratic primary in northeast Iowa's congressional race.

DISTRICT 53

Counties: Cerro Gordo

Incumbent: Democrat Sharon Steckman, Mason City

Challenger: Republican Barbara Hovland, Mason City

Registered Democrats: 6,638

Registered Republicans: 4,727

Registered no-party: 8,285

2012 presidential result: Obama by 23 points

Republicans see a pickup opportunity here; the state party spent more than $11,000 over the past three months on print advertising to support the campaign of Hovland, a party activist. But Steckman has party registration and historical voter behavior on her side. She was an active voice in the successful effort to prevent Prestage from building a pork plan in Mason City.

DISTRICT 51

Counties: Howard, Mitchell, Winneshiek, Worth

Incumbent: None

Challengers: Republican Jane Bloomingdale, Northwood; Democrat Tim Hejhal, Osage

Registered Democrats: 5,167

Registered Republicans: 6,467

Registered no-party: 7,905

2012 presidential result: Obama by 12 points

Retiring Republican Rep. Josh Byrnes won this district handily each of the past two elections, but Obama's performance here in 2012 shows it can be won by the right Democratic candidate. Both parties are investing in the race; each spent roughly $15,000 here in the past three months.

DISTRICT 92

Counties: Scott

Incumbent: Republican Ross Paustian, Walcott

Challenger: Democrat Ken Krumwiede, Davenport

Registered Democrats: 5,970

Registered Republicans: 6,186

Registered no-party: 8,400

2012 presidential result: Obama by 9 points

Paustian lost to Frank Wood in 2012, then beat him in a 2014 rematch. Democrats see this seat as a potential pickup; the state party spent more than $20,000 on advertising in the race over the past three months. But Republicans have mounted a strong defense, spending a whopping $164,000 on advertising to support Paustian's re-election bid.

DISTRICT 58

Counties: Dubuque, Jackson, Jones

Incumbent: None

Challengers: Republican Andy McKean, Anamosa; Democrat Jessica Kean, Maquoketa

Registered Democrats: 7,019

Registered Republicans: 5,282

Registered no-party: 8,751

2012 presidential result: Obama by 12 points

This one is ripe for a Democratic pickup. Retiring Republican Rep. Brian Moore bucked the odds by winning three times in this district. And even he was a former Democrat. Democrats have a significant registered voter advantage here, and Obama won the district comfortably in 2012. But Republicans aren't giving up the seat without a fight; they spent more than $59,000 on the race over the past three months. Democrats spent more than $53,000.

DISTRICT 13

Counties: Woodbury

Incumbent: Democrat Chris Hall, Sioux City

Challenger: Republican Shaun Broyhill, Sioux City

Registered Democrats: 5,438

Registered Republicans: 5,187

Registered no-party: 5,105

2012 presidential result: Obama by 10 points

This is among the rare blue districts in northwest Iowa, and indicators appear to suggest Hall is in good position to keep the seat in Democratic hands. He has raised more than $80,000 for his campaign, dramatically more than the $4,300 Broyhill has raised, and the Republican Party is not spending much money here.