The Fast Break(down): UNI hoops vs Loyola

The ups and downs that are this season for the Northern Iowa men's basketball team have continued, but the certain respite the Panthers (10-8, 2-3 Missouri Valley Conference) have been able to find has been at McLeod Center.

UNI has lost just once at home this season — the opener against Colorado State — and welcomes a Loyola team that is coming off a loss to Bradley, a team widely expected to finish at the bottom of the MVC this season. The Panthers have an opportunity to continue the recent trend of success at home in Saturday's matchup in Cedar Falls.

Here's a breakdown of the matchup between the two teams:

Key player

Northern Iowa:

Wes Washpun, guard — Given how good Loyola is at forcing turnovers (hold that thought), and how much Washpun has the ball in his hands, his performance once again remains exceedingly vital for the Panthers, as they seek to return to .500 in league play. Washpun has dribbled into trouble against full-court pressure a on a few occasions, and the Ramblers have tried to disturb ball movement a lot this season. Whatever UNI runs, Washpun will touch the ball when he's on the floor, so taking care of it will be the highest priority.

Loyola:

Milton Doyle, guard — Doyle is the leading scorer for Loyola at 11.3 points per game this season, but has been boom or bust. While he averages in double-digits, he's only scored 10-plus in back-to-back games on two occasions this season. If he follows the trend of the last few, he's in line to follow a five-point game against Bradley with a big game against UNI — against whom he averages 13.5 all-time. He's used in more possessions than any other Loyola player, so his success will likely mean the same for the Ramblers.

Strengths

Northern Iowa:

The second half against Indiana State serves as an outlier in conference play for the UNI defense. Beyond that, the struggles guarding the ball and denying ball movement have faded — though not completely — and allowed the Panthers to control the flow of the game on both ends.

UNI has done a good job through the five conference games of keeping teams who struggle offensively from finding any rhythm. Coach Ben Jacobson's defense has allowed 59.2 points in conference play, which is a welcome shift for UNI from its 69.8 mark in non-conference.

The Panthers remain efficient on offense in an overall sense, ranking 18th in effective field goal percentage and 30th in turnover percentage. It'll take crisp offense and smart passes to avoid committing multiple turnovers against the Ramblers.

Loyola:

Even through a five-game losing streak, the Ramblers have been able to do one thing very well under Coach Porter Moser: force turnovers. Loyola forces turnovers on 23.2 percent of opponents' possessions, which ranks 10th in the country, according to KenPom.

The next step, obviously, is capitalizing off those turnovers, but defense has kept them in games. The Ramblers' last three losses have come by a combined five points, to Illinois State, Missouri State and Bradley — and they forced 16, 14 and 16 turnovers, respectively, in those games.

There's still room to grow, as overall defensive efficiency still allows more than one point per possession (Loyola ranks 132nd at 1.008 ppp on defense), but forcing opponents into bad situations is a good place to start. Aggressiveness is usually a prerequisite for success in the MVC.

Weaknesses

Northern Iowa:

It seems like low-hanging fruit, but the biggest thing UNI has struggled with — especially in MVC play — is consistency. The Panthers have seen big differences in performance half to half in some games (OK, on the road).

It's been hard for Jacobson and Co. to nail down exactly what's not going right, because they've said practices have been good and the guys are all 'bought in' to what the coaching staff is teaching. As bad as it's been on the road is as good as it's been at home, and through five games in MVC play, that doesn't seem to be changing.

Rebounding also remains a major issue, as well as allowing second chance points. That trend has allowed winnable games to slip away on a few occasions.

Loyola:

The Ramblers have lost five straight, and enter the matchup with the Panthers having not broken the 60-point barrier on offense since a Dec. 30 loss to Southern Illinois, 72-62, in the MVC opener. Since then, Loyola has averaged 54 points per game.

Loyola ranks near the bottom in every offensive category nationwide. The Ramblers sit 323rd in offensive efficiency (0.939 points per possession), 242nd in effective field goal percentage (47.7 percent), 277th in turnover percentage (turnovers in 20.2 percent of possessions) and 317th in offensive rebound percentage (23.8 percent). Their slow pace (340th) doesn't seem to help in terms of control, either.

Four players are averaging in double figures, but none more than 11.3 points per game. Offense and scoring have been a tremendous struggle in recent weeks.

Northern Iowa wins if …

the Panthers can continue the trends of keeping struggling offenses down and dominating at home in tact. UNI has allowed 44 points in both home MVC games, and Loyola's struggling offense suggests the Panthers have another chance to hold an on-paper inferior opponent to a low number. Taking care of the ball and efficient defense should lead to another home win.

Loyola wins if …

the Ramblers force the Panthers into foul trouble and take away the outside shot. UNI shoots very well at home, and has shown a confidence in McLeod Center they haven't quite anywhere else. Loyola must take away that confidence and cast doubt in the minds of the Panthers if they are to overcome what they lack offensively.

l Comments: (319) 368-8884; jeremiah.davis@thegazette.com