Iowa-Rutgers breakdown

RECORDS

Iowa 15-10 (6-6 Big Ten); Rutgers 10-16 (2-11 Big Ten)

TV

7 p.m. ESPNU (Adam Amin and Craig Robinson)

LOCATION

Carver-Hawkeye Arena, Iowa City

LINE

Iowa by 14.5

PREVIOUS MEETING

Teams have not played this year; Iowa leads all-time series 1-0

KEY MATCHUP

Mike Gesell vs. Myles Mack.

Mack is a do-it-all guard who averages 14.0 points, 4.6 rebounds and 4.4 assists a game. He's quick and difficult to contain. He scored 26 points against Minnesota, 24 at Indiana and 21 in a shocking upset over Wisconsin. In each of those games he hit four 3-pointers. Gesell generally is an efficient point guard who gets others involved in the offense. He rebounded from one of his worst games against Minnesota to post eight points and two assists with no turnovers at Northwestern. Gesell also put his teammates in position to make plays they failed to convert.

This match-up features two different styles of play. The key for Gesell is to contain Mack when Iowa is in a man-to-man defense. It's more likely Iowa will go zone often, which still means the guards can't lose track of Mack.

'Mack is an interesting player, because he's really creative,” Iowa Coach Fran McCaffery said. 'He's a hard cover one-on-one. They are going to set ball screens for him, so he'll have some space. He can really score, and he's got 3-point range. But he can drive it and dump it and create for others.”

Gesell has posted inconsistent statistics, from an 18-point effort at Purdue to zero points against Minnesota. A right elbow injury has prevented him from attempting 3-pointers. That doesn't really concern McCaffery, however.

'It doesn't seem like it's limited him that much, except from 3-point range,” McCaffery said. 'I mean, he can't shoot 3s, he just can't. I mean, he can, but he struggles with that. His pull-up jumpers, money; his penetration, he's able to finish; he can get all the way to the rim. So I think for the most part, he's pretty effective.”

KEY STATISTICS

SCORING/OPP:

Iowa 68.5/62.7; RU 58.7/64.4

FG%/OPP FG%:

Iowa 42.9/40.0; RU 39.0/41.8

3PT%/OPP 3PT%:

Iowa 32.3/32.4; RU 29.7/32.4

FT%:

Iowa 73.9; RU 66.2

LIKELY STARTERS

Iowa:

G Mike Gesell (6-2); G Peter Jok (6-6); F Jarrod Uthoff (6-9); F Aaron White (6-9); C Adam Woodbury (7-1)

Rutgers:

G Bishop Daniels (6-2); G Myles Mack (5-10); F Junior Etou (6-7); F Kadeem Jack (6-9); C Greg Lewis (6-9)

KEY RESERVES

Iowa

: C Gabe Olaseni (6-10); G Anthony Clemmons (6-2); G Josh Oglesby (6-6); F Dominique Uhl (6-9)

Rutgers:

G Mike Williams (6-2), F D.J. Foreman (6-8), C Shaquille Doorson (6-11)

BOTTOM LINE

This sets up as a get-well game for Iowa after two bitter five-point defeats to lower-division squads. Rutgers has shown it is capable of amazing performances (see shocking home upset of Wisconsin) and boasts a few talented individual players despite its inconsistency. The Scarlet Knights rank last in Big Ten scoring, last in rebounding and 11th in defense. Rutgers has lost nine straight games and have yet to win a Big Ten road game.

But people who cover Rutgers look at tonight's game as one the Scarlet Knights can win. As part of a preview for tonight's game, Andrew Garda of NJ.com wrote, 'What can Rutgers do to steal a win on the road against one of the weaker teams in the conference?”

Iowa's inconsistency has dropped the Hawkeyes from the cusp of a Big Ten Tournament bye to the NCAA tournament bubble. Iowa opened Big Ten play 4-1 then promptly dropped three straight. A pair of wins against Michigan and Northwestern were followed by losses to Minnesota and Northwestern. A 10-8 mark in the Big Ten likely qualifies the team for a second straight NCAA berth. But that record must include a win against Big Ten newcomer Rutgers, the league's last-place team. If Iowa loses today, good luck selling those NIT tickets.

PREDICTION: Iowa 77, Rutgers 62

l Comments: (319) 339-3169; scott.dochterman@thegazette.com