New Quinnipiac poll shows Ernst pulling away from Braley in U.S. Senate race

DES MOINES - Joni Ernst is pulling away from Bruce Braley in the final days before the election, a new poll suggests.

Ernst leads Braley by 4 percent - more than the margin for error - in the latest poll by Quinnipiac University, released Wednesday morning.

Quinnipiac, which has been polling in Iowa throughout the 2014 cycle, surveyed 817 likely voters from Oct. 22 to Oct. 27. The margin for error is 3.4 percent.

In the latest survey, 49 percent of respondents chose Ernst to 45 percent for Braley.

Nine percent of voters said they remain undecided.

Ernst, a state senator from Red Oak, and Braley, a U.S. House member from Waterloo, are running for Iowa's open seat in the U.S. Senate.

'As Election Day nears, state Sen. Joni Ernst is closing in on Iowa's open U.S. Senate seat. Her lead over U.S. Rep. Bruce Braley inches up to 49 to 45 percent, giving her the momentum with less than a week left in the campaign,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll, in a media release.

Quinnipiac's previous poll, taken just a week ago, showed Ernst ahead of Braley, 48 percent to 46 percent.

The new Quinnipiac poll showed Ernst leading among no-party voters, 50 percent to 41 percent. Braley had the advantage among those who have already voted, 57 percent to 36 percent.

'Nothing is for sure, but one would certainly rather be in (Ernst's) shoes this morning than Braley's,” Brown said. 'One piece of good news for the Democrat is that he has a 21-point lead among those who already have voted.”

Ernst also fared better in favorability; 45 percent of respondents had a favorable opinion of her, while 43 percent had an unfavorable opinion. Braley's rating was under water at 40/43.

'In what was a strongly negative campaign, (Ernst) emerged from the mudslinging with voters liking her a bit more, usually an advantage that tends to translate into votes,” Brown said.

A Loras College Poll, tested during roughly the same time period and released Tuesday, showed Braley leading Ernst by 1.1 percent.

Also in the Quinnipiac poll, incumbent Republican Gov. Terry Branstad comfortably leads Democratic challenger Jack Hatch, 56 percent to 37 percent. That is essentially unchanged since the previous Quinnipiac poll.

'Democrats thought Gov. Terry Branstad might be vulnerable because roughly half of Iowa voters thought he had been in office too long. But his re-election was never in doubt,” Brown said. 'One key indication: more than a third of voters say they don't know enough about his Democratic opponent to have an opinion. They never bothered to find out because they knew they would be voting for Branstad.”