Boulton’s exit adds more uncertainty to Democratic primary

There are societal and systemic issues that will and must be discussed after yet another prominent Iowa political figure - the third in just over two months - was toppled by allegations of sexual harassment or misconduct.

Nate Boulton, one of six Democratic candidates for governor, suspended his campaign last week after three women accused him of past incidents of sexual misconduct, the most recent in 2015. The women - two of the three agreeing to be named in the article - told their stories to the Des Moines Register.

That follows, painfully close, the ousters of former Iowa Senate Majority Leader Bill Dix and former Iowa Finance Authority Director David Jamison.

Soon after a video surfaces showing Dix, who is married, kissing a lobbyist in a Des Moines bar he quit both his leadership post and Iowa Senate seat. The governor fired Jamison after hearing of multiple allegations of sexual harassment on the job.

The #MeToo movement is spreading through Iowa politics like wildfire, and the issue must be confronted to ensure a comfortable and safe workplace culture for everyone.

But this is a political column, and there are political ramifications that will come as a result of Boulton dropping out of the race to be Iowa's next governor.

According to two recent public opinion polls on the June 5 Democratic primary, Boulton was the second-most popular choice among the Democratic candidates, trailing only Fred Hubbell.

Boulton was chosen by 20 percent of those who responded to the most recent Iowa Poll.

That's a significant percentage of the electorate, especially in a crowded field where part of the challenge is simply obtaining the requisite 35 percent of the vote in order to secure the nomination. If no candidate receives 35 percent of the primary vote, the party's nominee instead is chosen later by delegates at the state convention.)

It will be interesting to see how Boulton's support is dispersed among the other five candidates.

Many, surely, already had cast their ballots during early voting. The Iowa Secretary of State's office said at close of business last Wednesday that 13,668 Democratic absentee ballots had been received by county auditors in Iowa.

For voters who had not yet but planned to vote for Boulton, there is obvious landing spot, in particular because of the division of union support in this primary.

Boulton was supported by a number of union groups, including some of the state's largest, like AFSCME Council 61 and the Federation of Labor AFL-CIO. While that doesn't mean every member of a union that endorsed Boulton planned to vote for him, it was a signal of support from within the labor community.

Those union supporters did not seem to take much affinity to Hubbell's campaign. At a state party event early in the primary campaign, union members sitting in a group of Boulton supporters waved spoons when Hubbell was on stage, suggesting a 'silver spoon” mocking of Hubbell, who comes from a wealthy Des Moines family of businesspeople.

There also was a hint of a union rivalry between the groups supporting Boulton and SEIU, the union that has backed and been the largest financier of Cathy Glasson's campaign. Glasson was the third-most popular candidate in the primary polls, although well behind Hubbell and Boulton.

It is difficult to project where Boulton's supporters will land, making an already fluid primary even more volatile.

His exit, just 12 days before Election Day, adds uncertainty for primary voters, 46 percent of whom said in that Iowa Poll that they remained undecided and 75 percent of whom said they could be persuaded to change their vote.

It would seem Boulton's exit could help boost Hubbell across the finish line. He was chosen by 31 percent of respondents in the Iowa Poll; if that's accurate, it would not take much of a bump from undecided voters and former Boulton supporters to keep Hubbell in front and get him across the threshold.

On the other hand, Boulton's exit could upend the race if a large share of his supporters flock to just one or two candidates, which would have the dual impact of boosting their support and stunting Hubbell's ability to clinch it.

Some Boulton supporters said late last week they know which candidate they'll vote for instead, and others said they were still in shock over the revelations and had not yet determined the fate of their vote.

'It was easy to get on board with Nate. It's going to take a while to think it through why I'd want to support anybody else,” Bev Strayhall, a prominent Boulton supporter from Davenport, told the Quad City Times in an interview.

Sooner than later, Boulton supporters will have to make that decision. The election is just more than a week away.

And then, Iowa politicians, we need to have a long talk about this.

Erin Murphy covers Iowa politics and government. His email address is erin.murphy@lee.net. Follow him on Twitter at @ErinDMurphy.