Stat Pak: Field goal discussion is fine, but Iowa's offense is the real issue

Five bullet points on Iowa's 17-9 loss to Wisconsin:

1. I think this is what Ferentz meant on the field goal thing

Of course, Kirk Ferentz knows the two-point conversion is a thing. The Hawkeyes did run one successfully at Minnesota three weeks ago.

So, let's just agree that when asked about going for a 38-yard field goal with 5:25 left in last weekend's 17-9 loss to Wisconsin and Ferentz said he believed the Hawkeyes (5-3, 3-2 Big Ten) had to score twice that he was talking about scoring twice to win the game.

The Hawkeyes were down 14-6 at that point. Ferentz passed on a fourth-and-5 from the Badgers' 20 for a field goal, which freshman Keith Duncan pushed wide right.

'For the situation we were in, we felt that was the best play, we're going to have to score twice,' Ferentz said. 'Fourth-and-5 against these guys is not easy, especially down there in the red zone. We didn't see that as a high-probability play and we're going to have to get back there again, that was the thinking there.'

Iowa needed to score twice to win the game, that's it. That's the only reasonable explanation. Maybe you want to tie the game, or at least have a chance to tie it before trying to win it, but let's not hold this thought any longer. It deflects from the real issue ...

2. ... And that is the offense

You can run Iowa's offensive performance against No. 11 Wisconsin (5-2, 2-2) through so many filters.

Wisconsin is great at defense. Iowa tight end George Kittle could only play for a half and operated at maybe 60 percent because of an ankle/foot injury suffered two weeks ago at Purdue. Offensive tackle Boone Myers didn't play because of ankle injury. Offensive tackle Cole Croston was just coming off missing a week because of an ankle injury.

Run those filters and you're still left with yet another toothless performance. In its three losses (North Dakota State, Northwestern and Wisconsin), against the only three legit defenses on its schedule, Iowa has been held to less than 300 yards of offense.

In three games this year, Iowa's offense has scored two or fewer touchdowns (two of those were victories, thanks largely to the defense). One stat that rings out is yards per completion. If nothing else, this measures the damage your passing game does to a defense. For the season, Iowa is at 11.3 yards per completion, that's No. 101 in the country. In the last three weeks, Iowa is at 9.8 yards per, tying for 119th. Last season, Iowa finished with 12.5 yards per completion.

'We had a couple of close calls today that would've helped us, kind of bang-bang type of plays,' Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz said. 'We were just a little bit off. Somehow, some way, we're going to have to push that over the top.'

3. Other symptoms

Shaky pass protection — Iowa has allowed 20 sacks, tied for 11th in the Big Ten, one less than Rutgers — has sped up quarterback C.J. Beathard's clock. Iowa has relied heavily on the slot receiver position (Matt VandeBerg and Riley McCarron) with 43 of 123 completions going to that position (35 percent). Outside receivers Jerminic Smith and Jay Scheel are quickly passed over on reads or don't have trust or aren't getting open.

All of these factors are shaping Iowa's passing game and, subsequently, its offense. Throwaway passes (16) are up this year. There were six against Wisconsin. Drops (16) are up this year. There were at least two Saturday, including one to Scheel that would've been a 40-plus gain.

'Sometimes the defense can take away one thing or open up another thing,' McCarron said. 'It depends on the looks they give us and the reads C.J. is making and stuff like that. I don't know if that's the problem right now. We're leaving plays on the field that we're capable of executing.'

Iowa ran some no huddle. It worked for a few series (for a field goal at the end of the first half and the missed field goal), but it disappeared.

'You obviously like to do what works,' Beathard said. 'We did that a couple of times and it worked pretty well.'

4. It's probably naive to think Iowa's offense can get to the point of being an aggressor

The defense fell apart against Northwestern (allowing 38 points) and has since recovered. It had a hand in the loss to Wisconsin, namely a fourth-quarter drive for a field goal that made it a two-score game, but allowed just 17 points. That's manageable.

Iowa's offense has to know what it can't do at this point. Iowa goes into a bye week with its tool belt on and hope that it can turn the corner on injuries.

After the bye, it's a road game at Penn State (which beat No. 8 Ohio State last weekend), at Kinnick against No. 2 Michigan, at Illinois and then Black Friday with No. 6 Nebraska.

Can the Hawkeyes' offense get to a point in the next four games where it's throwing punches and not taking them?

'I think it's definitely doable,' guard Sean Welsh said. 'For us, the margin for error is small right now. We're doing a lot of good things, but small details. This bye week will help us focus on those small details.'

5. I'm sure there's a reason true freshmen drop their redshirts at Iowa and I'm sure it's mostly about next year, but what about this year?

Iowa true freshman TE Noah Fant is making progress. He's caught four passes for 33 yards in the last three games. He may or may not have been jobbed out of a 7-yard TD pass against Wisconsin that was overturned upon review.

If Iowa can get Kittle healthy before Penn State, probably use these two together on the field and threaten secondaries and linebackers. Fant (6-4, 225) has shown soft hands and athleticism. At this point, Iowa clearly needs all the playmakers it can find.

This is where I usually chide you guys for 'turning over rocks,' but this one seems obvious, doesn't it?

Here's what Wisconsin true freshmen did yesterday:

WR Quintez Cephus — He ran past safety Miles Taylor for a 57-yard gain in the third quarter. The drive ended in a TD. WR A.J. Taylor — He rushed twice on jet sweeps for 24 yards. NT Garrett Rand — He recorded no stats, but he jumped in and started for the injured Olive Sagapolu. He was pulling rope for a defense that allowed just 27 carries for 83 yards.

Iowa has activated 10 true freshmen this year. Outside of Fant and Duncan, none of them have worked into a role beyond special teams.

Maybe that pays off next year. Meanwhile, this year ...

Three Stars

1. Wisconsin RB Corey Clement

The 227-pounder rushed for 134 yards on 35 carries and scored a TD. Iowa held him relatively in check until the 34-yard run in the fourth that set up the clinching field goal.

2. Wisconsin LB Jack Cichy

I made the mistake of standing next to the bull trophy at the end of the game. This guy was running full speed straight at me yelling about where the trophy was. I turned and pointed and when I turned back he was already past me. Life happens fast. Cichy led UW with 10 tackles.

3. UW head coach Paul Chryst

On a Big Ten coach of the year track. He's taken the vehicle that Barry Alvarez built and, with his tweaks on offense, has seemingly built a sustainable, repeatable offense. Well, this is his second year and I guess we'll see on the sustainable, repeatable part. Iowa hasn't hit that, can UW? If it does and Iowa doesn't, that's really, really bad for Iowa.

Film Room

— The no-huddle 'tempo' thing, I'm with KF on that. I don't think it's a fix. But hey, you saw that offense. There's no fix when it plays a defense with teeth. Not right now anyway.

I'm not arguing tempo didn't work. Iowa flipped that switch at the end of the half and got a field goal out of it. It did it again in the fourth on the drive that resulted in the missed field goal.

With that in your pocket, I would've dialed it up at the beginning of the fourth quarter. Iowa had a first down at UW's 48. In the third quarter, Iowa's offense was held to 26 total yards (12 rushing with two fumbles that Iowa recovered or the deal really would've caved in and 14 passing yards) and went 0-for-3 on third down.

You're down 14-6 at this point. This was the time to go tempo. If it failed, the defense was coming off a quarter break. It probably would've survived, especially with the field position flipped.

That's second guessing, I'll cop to that. I wouldn't go here if they didn't show they were willing to use tempo.

Oh yeah, this drive died on a third down where the skycam showed why Iowa's passing game is dead. Beathard had around 3 seconds before it literally was 'party at the quarterback,' with three Badgers crashing on him for a sack.

Skycam also showed, from left to right, Jerminic Smith, Fant, McCarron and either Scheel or Wadley, covered. Analyst Brian Griese called it a 'coverage sack.' He also pleaded for Iowa OC Greg Davis to manufacture some space for receivers, with rubs or something.

Skycam shows all. You cannot hide from skycam.

— My goodness the missed the missed tackles.

Here's one segment of the game where it really hurt: RB Dare Ogunbowale broke away from Jewell for a 26-yard pass reception on a third-and-5. Jewell didn't miss the tackle, but safety Brandon Snyder did and it gave UW another 8 or so yards. Same drive and another pass to Ogunbowale. This time he beat LB Bo Bower, who then missed the tackle. DE Anthony Nelson also brushed off QB Alex Hornibrook on a near strip sack.

The drive ended up killed on a QB pressure by Jewell. On UW's next drive, Taylor missed a tackle on TE Troy Fumagalli and this was fatal, ending up a 17-yard TD pass.

My goodness the missed tackles.

Two plays

— This is going to be a tale of two third-and-1s. First, one where Iowa's offense failed.

On first down, Beathard hit McCarron for a 6-yard gain. Iowa now is second-and-4 from its 40 with around 2 minutes left in the third. LeShun Daniels goes for a 3-yard gain on second down. It's third-and-1.

Iowa calls a power play to to the weakside. It didn't matter. I was so engrossed in the human avalanche the Badgers threw at Iowa.

OLB Vince Biegel ran from the backside across redshirt freshman tight end Nate Wieting. The freshman NT we talked about pancaked G Keegan Render. That was just the fun on the backside. Playside, OLB Garret Dooley took on the kick out block attempt from fullback Drake Kulick and ultimately ran Daniels backward for a 3-yard loss.

It wasn't just the passing game.

— Wisconsin had a third-and-1 at its 29. It ran an iso with the fullback leading the way and a pulling lineman. Not the same play Iowa ran, but similar.

From a cover 0 (everyone in the box), Bower took on the fullback. He took him on, but didn't change the path of the play and ended up turning his back to the ball. He never leveraged the ball carrier. So, Iowa has now lost edge contain. Snyder lined up on the edge was driven down the line of scrimmage by the TE. Jewell ended up missing the tackle, but he had no chance. Clement bounced and Jewell lost leverage. Taylor takes a terrible path to the ball and the play opened up. It eventually ended up as a FG and gives UW a two-score lead.

Game over.

Up Next — Bye week

— Chew on the RB Eno Benjamin news. Here's a post from The Gazette's Jeremiah Davis.

— The whole 'no visits after you commit' seems unrealistic. Commitments aren't blood oaths. If you can't reconcile that, good luck swimming with the sharks. Here's recruiting coordinator/assistant coach Kelvin Bell on Iowa's expectations with 'no visits.' The word 'commitment' stopped meaning what we all think it means when people started cashing in on recruiting news and the word 'flipped' became a thing. Doesn't make any of this right, but none of this is changing. All I can say is recruiting news is invisible ink until the letter of intent is in Iowa football email. If you can't handle the waves, get off the boat.

— What should I do on the bye week? Besides a root canal and a car navigation fix?

The Numbers Game

Touchdowns in the red zone

Iowa

— 0 of 3

Wisconsin

— 2 of 5

Tracking the Hawkeyes

: Week 1 vs. Miami — 5 of 6 (off), 2 of 3 (def); Week 2 vs. ISU — 4 of 4 (off), 0 of 1 (def); Week 3 vs. NDSU — 2 of 2 (off), 2 of 3 (def); week 4 vs. Rutgers — 0 of 1 (off), 1 of 4 (def); Week 5 vs. Northwestern — 4 of 5 (off), 3 of 4 (def); Week 6 at Minnesota — 0 of 2 (off), 1 of 2 (def); Week 7 at Purdue — 4 of 4 (off), 1 of 1 (def); Week 8 vs. Wisconsin — 0 of 3 (off), 2 of 5 (def);

The takeaway

: This has been one of Iowa's best stats all season. Man, the Badgers are good at defense. You could argue this was the game. UW got into Iowa's red zone five times? That's a lot of drive that worked or almost worked. You could argue that this was the game, too.

Three and outs forced by the defense

Iowa

— 2

Wisconsin

— 5

Tracking the Hawkeyes

: Week 1 vs. Miami — 3 (def), 2 (off); Week 2 vs. ISU — 4 (def), 1 (off); Week 3 vs. NDSU — 0 (def), 5 (off); Week 4 vs. Rutgers — 2 (off), 3 (def); Week 5 vs. Northwestern — 6 (def), 6 (off); Week 6 at Minnesota — 10 (def), 6 (off); Week 7 at Purdue — 3 (def), 2 (off); Week 8 vs. Wisconsin — 2 (def), 5 (off);

The takeaway

: Iowa's third quarter and the first drive of the fourth quarter were brutal. One five-play drive and three consecutive three-and-outs. Iowa was pinned.

Efficiency

(50% of needed yards on first down, 70% of needed yards on second down, or 100% of needed yards on third or fourth down)

Iowa

— 36.6 percent (22 efficient plays out of 60 total)

Wisconsin

— 43.8 percent (32 of 73)

Tracking the Hawkeyes

: Week 1 vs. Miami — 54 percent (off), 51.4 (def); Week 2 vs. ISU — 52 percent (off), 34 (def); Week 3 vs. NDSU — 37 percent (off), 43 (def); Week 4 vs. Rutgers — 39.3 (off), 37.6 (def); Week 5 vs. Northwestern — 36.7 (off), 41.6 (def); Week 6 at Minnesota — 33.3 percent (off), 26.4 percent (def); Week 7 at Purdue — 45.2 percent (off), 28 percent (def); Week 8 vs. Wisconsin — 36.6 percent (off), 43.8 percent (def);

The takeaway

: Season-low for the offense and a season-high for the defense. I think this number kind of shows what we all saw and thought happened. Iowa was pinned and tried to get off its back for most of the game. Until 6:34 of the second quarter, Iowa ran one play on UW's side of the field and that was a punt from the 49.

20-plus plays

Iowa

— 1

Wisconsin

— 6

Tracking the Hawkeyes

: Week 1 vs. Miami — 7 (off), 3 (def); Week 2 vs. ISU — 6 (off), 2 (def); Week 3 vs. NDSU — 3 (off), 5 (def); Week 4 vs. Rutgers — 5 (off), 3 (def); Week 5 vs. Northwestern — 3 (off), 3 (def); Week 6 at Minnesota 3 (off), 3 (def); Week 7 at Purdue — 6 (off), 7 (def); Week 8 vs. Wisconsin — 1 (off), 6 (def);

The takeaway

: Season-low for the offense. Iowa gave up two 50-plus plays. Two of UW's 20-plus were runs. How was this game even close? That's something I'm sure the Badgers are asking themselves after today's film deal. BTW, Wadley fumbled and no alarms went off. He got clobbered on the fumble and he bounced back nicely. He's also one of Iowa's only three reliable playmakers (McCarron being the other), so it's hard to hold him out when you really, really need him. Iowa really needs him right now. Daniels was held to 11 touches for 43 yards. Game just didn't go his way.

The Iowa/Greg Davis definition of explosive (it's 12-plus runs and 16-plus passes)

: 3 — Season low. (Tracking: Miami 9, ISU 10, NDSU 4, Rutgers 11, Northwestern 5; Minnesota 6, Purdue 11, Wisconsin 3)

Magic Points (scores inside of two minutes)

Iowa

— 6

Wisconsin

— 3

Tracking the Hawkeyes

: Week 1 vs. Miami — 0 (off), 0 (def); Week 2 vs. ISU — 0 (off), 0 (def); Week 3 vs. NDSU — 0 (off), 3 (def); Week 4 vs. Rutgers — 7 (off), 0 (def); Week 5 vs. Northwestern — 0 (off) 0 (def); Week 6 at Minnesota — 0 (off) 0 (def); Week 7 at Purdue — 14 (off), 14 (def); Week 8 vs. Wisconsin — 6 (off), 3 (def);

The takeaway

: Iowa drove for one FG with a high-tempo drive at the end of the first half. It was all shotgun with 11 personnel in the fourth, too, when Iowa drove for another late field goal (43 seconds left). I still don't think high-tempo is the cure. I just don't think that's Iowa's comfort zone.

l Comments: (319) 398-8256; marc.morehouse@thegazette.com