The Fast Break(down): UNI hoops vs Illinois State

Northern Iowa heads back on the road after back-to-back home games for another set, both away from home. The Panthers (10-10, 2-5 Missouri Valley Conference) have lost three in a row, have lost seven of their last 10 games, and haven't won a true road game since winning at George Mason on Dec. 8.

UNI heads to Normal, Ill., to face Illinois State, which also sits at 10-10 overall, and also has been up and down in MVC play en route to a 4-3 conference record so far. The Redbirds snapped a three-game losing streak on Wednesday against Bradley. The two teams face off Saturday at 3 p.m.

Here's a breakdown of the matchup between the two teams:

Key player

Northern Iowa:

Paul Jesperson, guard — Let's preface this with the following: the last three losses are far from Jesperson's fault. His struggles in the last three games have been just a part of what's gone wrong for the Panthers.

But to be certain, 22 total points on 7 of 28 (25 percent) in that stretch has made for a gap in production UNI relied on heavily throughout the season. He still leads UNI in rebounding at 4.9 per game, so fighting through whatever isn't working for him right now is vital for the Panthers to break the losing streak. By all accounts, he's still working at it, so conventional wisdom says a guy with his talent will find it again.

Illinois State:

DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell, guard — He's Illinois State's leading scorer at 15.4 points per game, second in rebounding at 4.9 per game, and shoots at a 45.1 percent clip. He's the all-around leader on both ends of the floor and the straw that stirs the Redbirds' drink.

He can score from several different spots and in several different ways — though he has struggled from beyond the arc this season (24.4 percent from 3-point range). His slashing game could exploit issues UNI has had at times in guarding the ball and allowing dribble penetration into the paint. His good days usually mean good days for Illinois State, and vice versa.

Strengths

Northern Iowa:

At the moment, there aren't a ton of strengths for the Panthers to lean on. There's a difference between potential or ability and results.

UNI showed positive steps against Wichita State in the extended pressure on the ballhandler in a high ball screen situation. Fred VanVleet had to work extremely hard and show lots of patience to work around a strong hedge from Bennett Koch or Ted Friedman. Ultimately, the Panthers got burned by one of the best point guards in the country more than a few times, but progress is progress.

Illinois State has shown an inability to handle hard pressure in the past, so if UNI can rely on improved defensive pressure, transition offense could once again be worked back into what makes the Panthers tick.

Illinois State:

Defense has been the biggest strength so far this season for the Redbirds, in addition to what Akoon-Purcell has been able to do at various points.

Illinois State has been solid in being an efficient group on defense, allowing less than one point per possession overall this season (0.992) — ranking them in the top 100 at 92nd — and using pressure defense to create turnovers. The Redbirds have a 21.2 percent turnover rate as a defensive unit, and also defend the rim pretty well.

They force teams to work deep into the shot clock — average possession length for opponents is 18.6 seconds — and have been able to exploit teams without multiple options on a few occasions. If UNI doesn't have an inside presence Saturday, Illinois State could have more success.

Weaknesses

Northern Iowa:

It would be easy to pile on here, and as Matt Bohannon said after the game, 'When you talk out loud, it sounds a little easier. But when you're out there, it's a little tougher. Maybe at times we're making it tougher on ourselves by not doing what we should, but at the end of the day we've got to take pride and understand every possession counts.'

The fact is, though, results are results. Over the last three games, the Panthers have shot 33.6 percent, have been out-rebounded 110-83 and have been outscored in the paint 64-52. The Shockers took advantage in late shot clock situations several times, capitalizing on patience, and got a productive Bennett Koch in foul trouble.

There's a lot for UNI to work on, and it's a little bit in every part of the floor.

Illinois State:

Offense has been a struggle for the Redbirds most of the season. Illinois State ranks 200th or worse in the country in eight offensive categories on KenPom, including efficiency (0.978 points per possession, 268th), effective field goal percentage (45.4 percent, 315th), turnover percentage (18.9 percent, 215th), 3-point shooting (31.1 percent, 313th) and free throw shooting (61.6 percent, 337th) — among others.

With Akoon-Purcell being the chief option — he's used on 30.8 percent of possessions — and inconsistency on offense from the rest of the team, the Redbirds found themselves losers of three straight of their own before their win Wednesday.

If UNI can continue its progress on defense and crank up the pressure with effectiveness, Illinois State's struggles could continue offensively.

Northern Iowa wins if …

Shots start to fall, foul trouble isn't an issue and defense can close out possessions. The Panthers have the ability to correct what's ailed them in the last month or so, and if the first of the three 'ifs' happens, the other two don't mean as much as they have lately. Turning capability into execution will be what turns things around for UNI.

Illinois State wins if …

Akoon-Purcell has a big game, works through the pressure UNI is bound to send at him and can exploit what the Panthers have struggled with the same way Wichita State and others have. Forcing Koch into foul trouble will go a long way toward that, as will controlling the glass and paint. The Redbirds will need to overcome offensive struggles of their own to win.

l Comments: (319) 368-8884; jeremiah.davis@thegazette.com