Prediction: Iowa gets that elusive 10th Big Ten win

Iowa basketball fans, I'm doubling down.

A week ago, I suggested the Hawkeyes were in a good position to challenge for second-place in the Big Ten after they beat Maryland to get to 6-4 in league play.

I told you the remaining schedule was favorable and the team had some bounce to it, or words to that effect. Then the Hawkeyes lost at home to Minnesota and fell at lowly Northwestern. That wasn't good.

So Iowa is 6-6 with six games left. The remaining schedule still isn't formidable as a whole, but those words are hollow after the Hawkeyes' last two games. Ugly.

Hey, droughts die hard. In 2013, Iowa got its first 20-win season since 2006. Last year, it made its first NCAA tourney appearance since ‘06.

Iowa's last NCAA victory was back in 2001. Maybe that can be put to rest next month. First, the Hawkeyes have to again reach the NCAAs.

On an unrelated note, here's a statistic that should rankle the Iowa rank-and-file: The Hawkeyes haven't had a winning Big Ten record since they went 9-7 in Steve Alford's last season at Iowa, 2007.

The league-finishes since then were 8th, 10th, a tie for 9th, 10th, a tie for 7th, 6th, and 6th. Iowa hasn't had a bye to the Big Ten tournament quarterfinals since 2007. It hasn't played in the league tourney semifinals since 2006.

Iowa has three winning Big Ten records in the 15 full seasons after Tom Davis was replaced as its coach. Three out of 15. That's not very good.

Nine of Davis' 13 Iowa teams had winning conference records, including his last four. His last team went to the NCAA's Sweet 16, a place Iowa hasn't come within two NCAA wins of reaching ever since.

Iowa did go 9-9 in each of the last two Big Ten seasons. Can it go 4-2 or better for a winning mark this year? Of course, even in light of the Hawkeyes' last two performances.

There's no way, no way, no way Iowa loses at home to Rutgers or Northwestern. Got that? No way.

In between those games are these: At Nebraska, Illinois, at Penn State and at Indiana. You hold serve at home and win at either Nebraska and Penn State, there's your 10-8.

It's just that easy. Which, of course, it isn't.

Indiana is acting like it's the conference's second-best team, so that's more than tough. Illinois has played surprisingly well in compiling a 7-6 Big Ten mark.

Automatically assuming a win at either Nebraska or Penn State is folly, no matter that they're a combined 8-18 in the league.

But it is written here that Iowa wins four of those last six games, minimum. Let those who disagree say so before those games are played instead of afterward.